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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The next 2 weeks are a carbon copy of mar 14&15. Uncanny. 

We are in some weird run where March is prime snow climo lately. I’m sure it won’t last but might as well roll with it. We don’t have good enough climo to be picky about when it snows. 

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11 minutes ago, Ji said:

yep--hopefully he will be right for once

just kidding--he just got Bryce Harper

Lol. I’m as disappointed at the lack of MECS+ snows this year, one thing we share is chasing the big ones. But actually just about all the threats we picked out at range ended up producing snow somewhere in this sub.  Most failed to live up to some of the upside potential but almost none failed completely. That’s actually really rare. We often see day 7+ threats completely evaporate but not this year. 

That period late week just makes sense. There is one more pulse of high latitude ridging that helps reinforce the cold later this week. Then the next pacific wave runs into the cold. That’s just a typical idea in this type pattern.  

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Lol. I’m as disappointed at the lack of MECS+ snows this year, one thing we share is chasing the big ones. But actually just about all the threats we picked out at range ended up producing snow somewhere in this sub.  Most failed to live up to some of the upside potential but almost none failed completely. That’s actually really rare. We often see day 7+ threats completely evaporate but not this year. 
That period late week just makes sense. There is one more pulse of high latitude ridging that helps reinforce the cold later this week. Then the next pacific wave runs into the cold. That’s just a typical idea in this type pattern.  
Very true. The problem is out batting average is high .331 but it's been singles and or 2 out doubles with nobody on base. The models have been good. The hecs pattern has sucked but we hardly got teased with them so we never lost them.
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My house has had 8 accumulating events this winter with only one under an inch and one over 11" I'm not sure how anyone that lives around me can call this a bad winter unless your only goal was a 20"+ event. If Sunday happens and then another next week....10 events and over 30" of snow is a rare winter around here...no arguments 

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My house has had 8 accumulating events this winter with only one under an inch and one over 11" I'm not sure how anyone that lives around me can call this a bad winter unless your only goal was a 20"+ event. If Sunday happens and then another next week....10 events and over 30" of snow is a rare winter around here...no arguments 
We got lucky. The winter didn't produce like we though it might. We never got that severe sustained winter period or the big one. No nor'Easter. It had some good moments but it was like the Vikings season
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1 minute ago, Ji said:
24 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:
My house has had 8 accumulating events this winter with only one under an inch and one over 11" I'm not sure how anyone that lives around me can call this a bad winter unless your only goal was a 20"+ event. If Sunday happens and then another next week....10 events and over 30" of snow is a rare winter around here...no arguments 

We got lucky. The winter didn't produce like we though it might. We never got that severe sustained winter period or the big one. No nor'Easter. It had some good moments but it was like the Vikings season

You kill me man...we are like the Laurel and Hardy of the board :P

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1 hour ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:
You kill me man...we are like the Laurel and Hardy of the board emoji14.png

Lol I rank the 2015-16 winter better. It was definitely in the top 20 this century though

I agree. Getting 30+ inches in one storm is incredible. Although, many people on this forum complained about the ‘15-‘16 winter. It was my first year as an observer here. I don’t know if you were one of them, I’m just guessing...maybe.

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3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

My house has had 8 accumulating events this winter with only one under an inch and one over 11" I'm not sure how anyone that lives around me can call this a bad winter unless your only goal was a 20"+ event. If Sunday happens and then another next week....10 events and over 30" of snow is a rare winter around here...no arguments 

We already have over 30". But this winter still feels like it is missing something.

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9 hours ago, Ji said:

What happened to isothern. Frd used to cut and paste all his stufff

He has not posted very much at all.  I think he is frustrated and not much to talk about really in his area. At least nothing to say that is really worthwhile.  Certainly not this cold rain and some snow stuff. 

To all the winter seasonal forecasters out there, well they can relax  for months on end until its time to think about the 2019-20 winter.  I sense a lot of anxiety for them in the Fall.

And............ya da ya da ya da, I am still waiting for the next grand decadel -NAO cycle.  More likely Yellowstone will erupt before that happens, it's overdue.   .   

 

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4 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

My house has had 8 accumulating events this winter with only one under an inch and one over 11" I'm not sure how anyone that lives around me can call this a bad winter unless your only goal was a 20"+ event. If Sunday happens and then another next week....10 events and over 30" of snow is a rare winter around here...no arguments 

Agree.  I'm sitting at 28.4 which is almost twice my median of 15, and got a 12-incher which I consider a big storm.  Good winter for my area.  But I know there are many on this forum who have had a real stinker.

It would be great to have one of those long-lead time coastals that gets everyone.  Hoping for something next weekend before the pattern flips.

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