dallen7908 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Percent to EPS members giving College Park > 1, 3, 6, and 12" of snow/sleet during period ending 7 PM March 6th. With light snow on the way for much of the forum, this is the last update for this period -- at least until verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, dallen7908 said: Percent to EPS members giving College Park > 1, 3, 6, and 12" of snow/sleet during period ending 7 PM March 6th. With snow on the way for much of the forum, this is the last update for this period -- at least until verification And the rug gets pulled out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: And the rug gets pulled out lol For far northern MD folks such as you the current EPS "odds" are 100% (>1"), 70% (>3"), 30% (>6"), and 2%(>12") through 7 PM on the 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 40 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: For far northern MD folks such as you the current EPS "odds" are 100% (>1"), 70% (>3"), 30% (>6"), and 2%(>12") through 7 PM on the 6th. Yea eps has me at about 8” mean but gets there in a wholly unsatisfying 2” at a time over numerous threats way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea eps has me at about 8” mean but gets there in a wholly unsatisfying 2” at a time over numerous threats way. nickle and dime is fine for december i guess but absolutely a catastrophe for March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Huh? Thought it was a letdown kinda. i meant lots of days where it showed snow...unfortunately, most of it was light blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea eps has me at about 8” mean but gets there in a wholly unsatisfying 2” at a time over numerous threats way. You have become very picky in your old age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Boston about to back into a coastal in 48 hrs that was hundreds of miles offshore just a few runs ago. Does that happen to us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 hour ago, ravensrule said: You have become very picky in your old age. Lol... just want one big storm each year. And I don’t mean hecs big. ~8”+ is my threshold. That’s a 90% thing up here. I am weird in what I want but not picky. I was totally happy last year after the one big March storm. Same in 2017. And most hated those years. But I’m not a nickel and dime fan. Plus I’ve had plenty of 2-4” snows this year. Might as well go big now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 37 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Boston about to back into a coastal in 48 hrs that was hundreds of miles offshore just a few runs ago. Does that happen to us? This is why I didn’t shed a tear about their totals so far...they will be under a WSW at Easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: Boston about to back into a coastal in 48 hrs that was hundreds of miles offshore just a few runs ago. Does that happen to us? just curious....is that R in your name supposed to be there? 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: just curious....is that R in your name supposed to be there? You win the forums tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: Boston about to back into a coastal in 48 hrs that was hundreds of miles offshore just a few runs ago. Does that happen to us? I swear I clicked on the MA long range thread. I'm confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 17 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: just curious....is that R in your name supposed to be there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Looks like another wave around day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I don't believe College Park has reached the 1" threshold yet during the current period unless you assume a 10:1 snow/precip ratio for last night's snow/sleet. Last update for the current time period: Percent of EPS members giving College Park > 1, 3, 6, and 12" through 7 PM March 6th ... and now those of us an hours drive or more south of the MD/PA border shift most of our focus to March 8th and the 10/11th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 All of a sudden the turn to warmer later in March may be in trouble. Several indications reveal it might stay cold and there may indeed be more threats to deal with. Not sure if it is related to the recent -SOI drop or not, but the MJO may not advance to the warmer phases along with what appears to be the potential of a -AO developing. Granted any snow is going to require some pretty incredible cold air mass for this time of year, beyond what is forecasted next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I like pretty colors 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 hours ago, frd said: All of a sudden the turn to warmer later in March may be in trouble. Several indications reveal it might stay cold and there may indeed be more threats to deal with. Not sure if it is related to the recent -SOI drop or not, but the MJO may not advance to the warmer phases along with what appears to be the potential of a -AO developing. Granted any snow is going to require some pretty incredible cold air mass for this time of year, beyond what is forecasted next week. As we have said before the SOI and MJO are linked and related. Its not 1:1 but when the SOI is negative it tends to favor either a muted MJO or the cold phases. So one of the typical positive impacts of nino would be to mute the negative impacts of possible warm phase MJO waves. That failed big time this year, but recent research indicates that isn't all that uncommon in weak nino's. Live and learn. The problem with strong east based nino's isn't typically the mjo but that the warmth from the eastern Pacific just overwhelms the pattern and even with a good storm track its just typically not cold enough to snow very often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 March is the new February 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: As we have said before the SOI and MJO are linked and related. Its not 1:1 but when the SOI is negative it tends to favor either a muted MJO or the cold phases. So one of the typical positive impacts of nino would be to mute the negative impacts of possible warm phase MJO waves. That failed big time this year, but recent research indicates that isn't all that uncommon in weak nino's. Live and learn. The problem with strong east based nino's isn't typically the mjo but that the warmth from the eastern Pacific just overwhelms the pattern and even with a good storm track its just typically not cold enough to snow very often. Makes you wonder had we had this long -SOI period and a more Nino-like December, ie., more warmth in the center Pac , less East, what would have Jan and Feb. been like. I know even HM posts that certain parts of the country are Nino-like , but without becoming highly technical, because honestly I am not sure even where to begin, but we have not gotten the things we were hoping for like more snow. ( and a -AO averaged winter ) less WAR, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 CMC has a HECS from PHI to Boston march 9-10. We get some snow but not nearly as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Yeah guys, we don't get nearly as much. Our winters are so good that a foot isn't much apparently. Who would complain with this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah guys, we don't get much. Our winters are so good that a foot isn't much apparently. I'm out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 58 minutes ago, Amped said: CMC has a HECS from PHI to Boston march 9-10. We get some snow but not nearly as much 32" in 24 hrs for the SW ct coast where I grew up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah guys, we don't get nearly as much. Our winters are so good that a foot isn't much apparently. Who would complain with this? Not fair. Places that average much more snow than us getting more snow than us from this storm? What is the world coming to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Amped said: 32" in 24 hrs for the SW ct coast where I grew up. I see your point...and sure, up around NYC the CMC dumps a ton on them. Certainly more than here of course. But I thought you stated things in a bit of a misleading fashion. Your initial statement that "we get some snow but not nearly as much" with no other information made it sound like we get very little. And then the map you post shows the 24-h period ending at 12Z 3/10 when areas northeast of us are getting hammered while apparently showing relatively little here. However, we get around a foot in the 24 hours ending 12 hours before that (ending 00Z 3/10, according to the map Stormtracker posted). I'd hardly call what we get "some snow", just taking the model verbatim. But I guess in the end it's worthless to parse a single model run of the CMC for an event that's over a week out, LOL! Fun to look at though and I like the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Euro has a snow to rain event. I don't know how it manages to change us over given the blocking in central Canada. That should lock the 50/50 low down better than what the model is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Lol at CMC we finish out the season with a foot as NYC collects 2+ feet to finish with a becs I (and ji) would not stand for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 18 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Lol at CMC we finish out the season with a foot as NYC collects 2+ feet to finish with a becs I (and ji) would not stand for that Me either. That would be depressing. I'd rather get no snow lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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