LP08 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Icon has been consistently crushing my yard for a while now. You are in a great spot I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: GFs actually looks significantly better (click to animate) It definitely does not look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowCane said: It definitely does not look better. Yeah it's much more organized. It might not verify because of the NAM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 20 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I was mostly mocking the annoying kid from CHO. We're on the bubble with a lean toward rain. I can't see the soundings from the ICON Thanks....tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 22 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You and Mappy look pretty good for this one Also...I’d like some south trend in the next 48 hours to have cushion for the inevitable push north the last 36 hours. There have been several of these progressive frontal waves the last few years where I was in the southern edge of good snows and in the end I only got like 3” of slop and the good snow ended up in PA. I think I’m a lot of cases the DC crew just assumes I did good since they stop paying attention once they are out of it but often the push north the final 24 hours ends up screwing me also and I ended up with a few inches of slop and the 6”+ ended up to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Setting up for a monster March 9th? Lol probably not.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Interesting map update by NOAA. now shows the 10-30% down into Richmond chances of more than 2.5 inches of snow/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 thats a cold march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 March 9 is THE ONE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: March 9 is THE ONE Why? I don't see anything on the CMC/GFS that stand out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: March 9 is THE ONE looks like a clipper kind of deal. Nothing huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: Why? I don't see anything on the CMC/GFS that stand out It was partially in jest but I do think it has some upside potential. EPS is trending towards a second round of high latitude ridging around day 5-6 which prolongs the cold pattern and reinforces the trough in the east. Then pacific energy comes across west to east into a relaxing cold pattern. That is a traditional way we score some snow and in march those kind of systems can become more potent then normal. It will come down to the depth of the cold at that time and the position of the high. I don't think the wave will just die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 It might be more the 10th depending on the speed...some guidance is ejecting a weak frontrunning before the main system. Either way, that system in the 9-11th period does have some potential imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 58 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Problem is the guidance is also trending warmer and that is across all guidance. We likely do see some good precip from the coastal but I have doubts it’s snow, even up here. Have been mostly following temps on the Euro and the EPS for the Fri night/Sat coastal so I can't speak for other guidance but that has indeed progressively gotten colder over the last several runs. yesterday's 12z run for Sat at 00z 00Z run for Sat at 00z yesterday's 12z run for Sat at 00z 00Z run for Sat at 00z The 12z time frame is also colder as well. These are just surface temps but we see the same at 850's as well with them below zero from DC north through the entire Fri and possible Saturday events. Not going to go back and check but I am pretty sure we have seen this run over run colder trend for at least the last 3 runs on both the EPS and the op as the Euro started picking up on the idea of a quicker and stronger coastal. Now you might want to argue that we are too close in time to be using the ensembles but I would argue this is one of the times I would put more weight into them as we are seeing fairly significant changes on how this low is being handled at short lead times and they do lend weight to the colder op. Now as far as other guidance, no idea. Maybe they are coming in warmer but I would think the setup and how it evolves would argue for a colder solutions from previous runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Have been mostly following temps on the Euro and the EPS for the Fri night/Sat coastal so I can't speak for other guidance but that has indeed progressively gotten colder over the last several runs. yesterday's 12z run for Sat at 00z 00Z run for Sat at 00z yesterday's 12z run for Sat at 00z 00Z run for Sat at 00z The 12z time frame is also colder as well. These are just surface temps but we see the same at 850's as well with them below zero from DC north through the entire Fri and possible Saturday events. Not going to go back and check but I am pretty sure we have seen this run over run colder trend for at least the last 3 runs on both the EPS and the op as the Euro started picking up on the idea of a quicker and stronger coastal. Now you might want to argue that we are too close in time to be using the ensembles but I would argue this is one of the times I would put more weight into them as we are seeing fairly significant changes on how this low is being handled at short lead times and they do lend weight to the colder op. Now as far as other guidance, no idea. Maybe they are coming in warmer but I would think the setup and how it evolves would argue for a colder solutions from previous runs. Yea unfortunately on EVERYTHING else the trend is the other way. NAM 12/3k, RGEM, GGEM, GFS, FV3, ICON, all trended warmer the last 2 runs. As they are trending more amped and NW with the coastal they are pushing the thermal boundary NW also aided by more easterly flow off that coastal and without any high pressure to our north to help offset that...its starting to torch the mid levels pretty bad. Perhaps the reason we don't see this on the euro is that the euro has been the least impressive so far with the coastal and hasn't really amped it up as much yet. The one thing I could see that would offset that is if there is a significant increase in precip intensity. That is kind of like a critical mass type thing where if we get heavy banding it could mix and dynamically cool the column and suddenly its heavy wet snow NW of the cities. That kind of thing can happen and the temperature profile is close enough to leave that possibility open but without getting some nice banding I think its likely just cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It might be more the 10th depending on the speed...some guidance is ejecting a weak frontrunning before the main system. Either way, that system in the 9-11th period does have some potential imo. Is this the day 10 threat window the euro has had at day 10 for 6 days (12 runs) now? Asking for a friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea unfortunately on EVERYTHING else the trend is the other way. NAM 12/3k, RGEM, GGEM, GFS, FV3, ICON, all trended warmer the last 2 runs. As they are trending more amped and NW with the coastal they are pushing the thermal boundary NW also aided by more easterly flow off that coastal and without any high pressure to our north to help offset that...its starting to torch the mid levels pretty bad. Perhaps the reason we don't see this on the euro is that the euro has been the least impressive so far with the coastal and hasn't really amped it up as much yet. The one thing I could see that would offset that is if there is a significant increase in precip intensity. That is kind of like a critical mass type thing where if we get heavy banding it could mix and dynamically cool the column and suddenly its heavy wet snow NW of the cities. That kind of thing can happen and the temperature profile is close enough to leave that possibility open but without getting some nice banding I think its likely just cold rain. GFS with temps. Meh. Always seems to have issues in that regard. FV3 I am still learning but seems to have some issues that need to be resolved as well. And as far as the NAM's they are only now starting to get into range where they can be taken half seriously. As far as the GEM products I really don't follow them. The ICON? I hear it has recently been declared a legit model. So there is that. So I guess you could just call me DT jr as I am hugging the Euro at this time. Haven't looked at the 12z runs as of yet but will probably look a little harder into the other guidance from this point onward because it does look as if we have a legit shot at coastal impacts vs. just 24 hours ago when it was just speculation. Always knew it would be rough going as far as temps so it wouldn't surprise me any if we do have that issue. And I can see where a slower developing and weaker low could wreck the lower levels as it produces the fetch from the east. But conversely, a stronger and quicker developing low will probably produce a NE fetch which should help to lock in and/or draw in cold from the NE. Will be interesting to follow regardless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 I'm curious....anybody know the trends lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: GFS with temps. Meh. Always seems to have issues in that regard. FV3 I am still learning but seems to have some issues that need to be resolved as well. And as far as the NAM's they are only now starting to get into range where they can be taken half seriously. As far as the GEM products I really don't follow them. The ICON? I hear it has recently been declared a legit model. So there is that. So I guess you could just call me DT jr as I am hugging the Euro at this time. Haven't looked at the 12z runs as of yet but will probably look a little harder into the other guidance from this point onward because it does look as if we have a legit shot at coastal impacts vs. just 24 hours ago when it was just speculation. Always knew it would be rough going as far as temps so it wouldn't surprise me any if we do have that issue. And I can see where a slower developing and weaker low could wreck the lower levels as it produces the fetch from the east. But conversely, a stronger and quicker developing low will probably produce a NE fetch which should help to lock in and/or draw in cold from the NE. Will be interesting to follow regardless. Hopefully the EPS gets down to reality shortly, and shows a significant cold(er) shift still. And I can't call you DT unless you start using some cursing and vulgar language. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: If the gefs was any good I would feel great about this. Lol These didn't last long....guess we believe the rainers today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 My nonexpert comparison of 0z v. 12z EURO using 6z Monday as a reference point. Slight improvements. The low is centered over PAX River rather than SE PA. There is a heavier snow band across NW MD-thru North Central MD. If there is another 30-50 mile shift SE over the next day there will be a lot of happy people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Euro has two snow threats Friday and Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: These didn't last long....guess we believe the rainers today I kind of knew they wouldnt... the axis of snowfall was moving steadily north the last 8 runs or so...and so odds favored it to continue to shift north in subsequent runs. Especially given the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 12z GEFS is still a pretty weenie run for the NW 1/3 of the sub but a LOT of this is from the fantasy day 8-14 storms again. There was a significant pullback in snow the front 5 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 lots of snow on the 12z euro 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 12z GEFS is still a pretty weenie run for the NW 1/3 of the sub but a LOT of this is from the fantasy day 8-14 storms again. There was a significant pullback in snow the front 5 days. Not sure I would call a 15-25 mile shift north from the 00Z, through the DC/Balt region, a significant pullback. Though with such a tight gradient MBY #'s will fluctuate a good deal. eta: And looking at the snowfall for the Fri/Sat time period and comparing I don't even think we see that much of a shift for the Monday storm on the latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 This is what sleet gets you @leesburg04 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ji said: This is what sleet gets you @leesburg04 Where's all the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 45 minutes ago, Ji said: lots of snow on the 12z euro Huh? Thought it was a letdown kinda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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