Chris78 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Just now, Ji said: Hopefully the 18z fv3 improves a tick from 12z I was kind of disapointed with my 4' of snow. I hope it increases to 6'. Lol. It might. It is the fv3 after all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Just now, Ji said: Hopefully the 18z fv3 improves a tick from 12z I just hope we get something before the time change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: I didnt check the last run. let's not talk about the d11 to 15 forecasting disaster this year. Without that being said...I except the 12z fv3 to be spot on Agree but what happens day 5-7 actually is what sets the chain reaction that leads to a threat later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Hopefully the 18z fv3 improves a tick from 12z I’ll have to make a new legend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 What’s funny is the euro control had a 48 hour snowstorm also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 What’s funny is the euro control had a 48 hour snowstorm also. The fv3 always sniffs out the big ones first 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 What’s funny is the euro control had a 48 hour snowstorm also. I've always wanted payback for the March 2001 disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What’s funny is the euro control had a 48 hour snowstorm also. I've always wanted payback for the March 2001 disaster They owe you!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 I just hope we get something before the time change Lol...the 18z euro will run at 830pm...which will be our 00z euro. Otherwise tee time is 230am:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 17 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Can't get a signal at the AA meeting? No need for AA drinking that stuff. Its practically non-alcoholic. Imagine drinking 6 of those things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What’s funny is the euro control had a 48 hour snowstorm also. I'm about to get busy at work. Will be teaching classes all day for the next couple weeks. I will be looking forward to your @ CAPE posts to keep me updated on the latest model fantasies, or disasters. Reel me in a legit snowstorm for once this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 One of these years BWI is going to break this 58 year drought of no 20+ inch March's. FV3 says this is the year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: 1:47 am March 4th for the almost the entire area. 3:58 pm March 4th for my house. 7:05 pm March 4th for @C.A.P.E.'s house. Nailed it. This is how it would actually go down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 We are in a shutout period now again....what a trainwreck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Just now, Ji said: We are in a shutout period now again....what a trainwreck I would bet we get a little surprise frozen sometime in the next week. It has happened since early January that something pops up in the 4-5 day range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: We are in a shutout period now again....what a trainwreck You mean over the next 6 days? This is hardly a shocking development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Ji is a reminder for why I usually avoid long range threads, but the Fv3... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I'm about to get busy at work. Will be teaching classes all day for the next couple weeks. I will be looking forward to your @ CAPE posts to keep me updated on the latest model fantasies, or disasters. Reel me in a legit snowstorm for once this winter. I’m trying... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I would bet we get a little surprise frozen sometime in the next week. It has happened since early January that something pops up in the 4-5 day range. I have liked the chance of a sneaky event mid-late next week. There have been hints on the ops and the ensembles. Most likely it would be on the light side and probably favor coastal areas just to the NE of our region, but worth keeping an eye on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 45 minutes ago, Ji said: 46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What’s funny is the euro control had a 48 hour snowstorm also. I've always wanted payback for the March 2001 disaster Payback for that and I have always felt like March 93 owed us something. Maybe not a full refund but something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: @frd regarding enso, this will be part of my end of year retrospective but since you were talking about a possible nino next year thought I would throw it out there. What we really want is a moderate/strong modoki/central based Nino. Anything else really doesn't do it for us. I went through and filtered out all the nino years by modoki/traditional and strength (and I used the older traditional modoki classification where if the nino originated in the central PAC and propagated east before regressing westward it was modoki regardless if it took on basin wide characteristics for a time as most do). Here are the findings and snowfall for BWI Weak Modoki years using January: 1959, 1969, 1978, 1980, 1995, 2005, 2015. Average snowfall 18.05" Moderate/strong Modoki years: 1958, 1964, 1966, 1987, 1992, 2003, 2010. Average snowfall 43.14. The only one that wasn't a historic winter was 1992 and most agree the eruption of Pinatubo significantly changed the patterns that year. Weak Traditional nino: 1952, 1954, 1970, 1977, 2007: avg snowfall 15.86" Moderate: 1988 yea only one year lol, don't know what to make of that. Snowfall 20.4" Strong: 1973, 1983, 1998, 2016: avg 18.78" but with an obvious trend...2 of those years had one HECS and the other 2 did not and we got almost no snow in those. But the bottom line is the only type of nino that is actually good for us and raises our average snowfall above climo is a moderate/strong modoki. Keep that in mind going forward. Regarding this year...looks like this modoki weak fell into line with what I SHOULD have been expecting. Weak modoki tend to be variable but none were blockbusters...a few were duds, but many of them were basically what this year has been...meh. Well that certainly makes sense...now before this season I had put weak ninos in a "could go either way" category for bigger snow chances...but looking at those numbers, while they're not nina terrible, they're, ah you said...meh. Average, if you will! (And I wonder if the weak ones are like that BECAUASE they can more easily get pushed around by other factors like the MJO and such?). Will certainly keep that in mind from now on as well, lol So now...man it would be so sweet to get another shot at a moderate modoki next year with still having low solar--I hope that Webber dude is onto something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 I would bet we get a little surprise frozen sometime in the next week. It has happened since early January that something pops up in the 4-5 day range.The euro had clipper next week. Similar to the Feb 1 thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 I have liked the chance of a sneaky event mid-late next week. There have been hints on the ops and the ensembles. Most likely it would be on the light side and probably favor coastal areas just to the NE of our region, but worth keeping an eye on. Mentioned it earlier, but the 12z EURO had a clipper day 6/7, was super light but there. ninja’d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2019 Author Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: What’s funny is the euro control had a 48 hour snowstorm also. The fv3 always sniffs out the big ones first We're still talking snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ji said: 38 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I would bet we get a little surprise frozen sometime in the next week. It has happened since early January that something pops up in the 4-5 day range. The euro had clipper next week. Similar to the Feb 1 thing I thought you were out? Is it next winter already? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2019 Author Share Posted February 21, 2019 32 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Ji is a reminder for why I usually avoid long range threads, but the Fv3... Kinda the same here. The FV3 has almost no shot of happening like that or at all, but it is fun to look at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: Kinda the same here. The FV3 has almost no shot of happening like that or at all, but it is fun to look at. It’s about to be the new GFS, so it has to be correct one of these days, right? Maybe it just needs your validation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 18z GFS and FV3 look almost identical at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2019 Author Share Posted February 21, 2019 Well the GFS is certainly interesting post 240. Of course it's totally different vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2019 Author Share Posted February 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: It’s about to be the new GFS, so it has to be correct one of these days, right? Maybe it just needs your validation. I'm withholding my endorsement until after the mega blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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