Hyphnx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 GFS and FV3 are seeing something different. Seems like there is Dry Air that is quick to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 ICON is very close to something nice on the 5th too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Gfs has 3 straight days with highs in the 20s next week. That’s legit. FV3 a bit warmer FWIW. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: I think no matter what happens we can all agree RIC is not getting snow from this event. It happens. I wanted an egg sandwich the other day but we ran out. I was sad but realized it wasn’t meant to be. I had toast. Or Charlottesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 28 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Seems like the theme today is for rain changing to snow for us...but like I said, we're not far from mostly snow. I do like that cold press. Cold coming in vice leaving seems good. But we have never been good with south trends. So it’s a wash. We are talking 10s of miles as depicted. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: I do like that cold press. Cold coming in vice leaving seems good. But we have never been good with south trends. So it’s a wash. We are talking 10s of miles as depicted. Not bad. It can work. The other day Bob mentioned march 2014 and 2015. Both years the early march storms were rain to snow with very cold behind them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, HighStakes said: It can work. The other day Bob mentioned march 2014 and 2015. Both years the early march storms were rain to snow with very cold behind them. If I lived where you are I would be all smiles right now. I like where you sit for this. no way you get fringed I know it..I can feel it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 I'm not exactly hating the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 The coastal that is beginning to be advertised starting Friday night into Saturday should be monitored for a number of reasons. First, It could surprise some people along the northern tier into southern pa with some unexpected snow. See the 12k nam and cmc for reference. Second, it’s strength moving up the coast will impact our Sunday/Monday threat. The stronger it gets, the lower the heights and temps behind it and the colder our Monday storm becomes. I believe showme had a post this morning harping on the potential this had. Will be interesting to monitor. One way or the other we have a solid 10 day window with accumulating snow potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 9 minutes ago, MD Snow said: The coastal that is beginning to be advertised starting Friday night into Saturday should be monitored for a number of reasons. First, It could surprise some people along the northern tier into southern pa with some unexpected snow. See the 12k nam and cmc for reference. Second, it’s strength moving up the coast will impact our Sunday/Monday threat. The stronger it gets, the lower the heights and temps behind it and the colder our Monday storm becomes. I believe showme had a post this morning harping on the potential this had. Will be interesting to monitor. One way or the other we have a solid 10 day window with accumulating snow potential. I can't wait to track this over the course of the next week. March storms seem to be the most fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 GEFS has enough hits for Monday to keep me interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Not a bad spread at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Not a bad spread at this range. 13 and a dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hyphnx said: 13 and a dream e8 has a white dot over Ji's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, kurtstack said: e8 has a white dot over Ji's house. Let's go with that one. Still has RIC in the blue. Love ya Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 GEFS has pretty strong consensus for rain Sunday evening changing to snow overnight for much of the subforum. Setup obviously favors the northern part of the forum because they will change over first and possibly accumulate more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 FWIW (subtract out an inch or so for this Friday’s “event”). Take these maps with a grain of salt but it is an improvement from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 20 minutes ago, Hyphnx said: Let's go with that one. Still has RIC in the blue. Love ya Ji even a few southern solutions in the mix. we all need those. if you see Manchester getting slammed with blue fading to gray at this point its curtains. big Euro run coming up..and this is usually when it pulls a turd casserole with cheese out of the oven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: even a few southern solutions in the mix. we all need those. if you see Manchester getting slammed with blue fading to gray at this point its curtains. big Euro run coming up..and this is usually when it pulls a turd casserole with cheese out of the oven You mean the Euro that gave us snow then gave us sunny skies but now gives us snow again....that euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Eh. It looks like the euro is setting up for a Rainer to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 A 992 tracking to our west. Definitely no Bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: You mean the Euro that gave us snow then gave us sunny skies but now gives us snow again....that euro? The Euro is far from decided. Rain is modeled but it is not the same Euro to me anymore. Very shaky at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 We can hope the EURO is wrong again with this one! Let's see what it says 12z Friday. Outside of 48 hours none of the models know what is going on in this fast flow pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Euro is nothing but rain except for northern tier of PA, Upstate NY and northern NE. Pretty ugly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2019 Author Share Posted February 27, 2019 Yeah, the Euro is a debacle. Hopefully it over corrected too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: You mean the Euro that gave us snow then gave us sunny skies but now gives us snow again....that euro? no not that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Not wish casting but definitely still in the game: fact very cold air pressing in from the West on Sunday/Monday. If the timing of the low slows down 6-12 hours or if the cold air presses more than currently modeled we are going to see wintry precip. in the area. Fun to have things to track in late February/early March! Wasn't it yesterday that everything was being suppressed? Now we just need a 50-100 shift in 4 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Its Wednesday and we still aren't sure what Friday brings....you sure we know about Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Euro is bad... and it's been trending that way consistently for several runs now. Doesn't mean its right but hurts confidence. The euro was over amplified with several systems the last 2 years though so there is that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Euro is bad... and it's been trending that way consistently for several runs now. Doesn't mean its right but hurts confidence. The euro was over amplified with several systems the last 2 years though so there is that. just go with the models that give you the most snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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