The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

But my point is there is plenty of hope still for Sunday Monday....wouldnt write it off yet. Sorry if it isnt your 16" fantasy storm psu and I know Ji will still be pissed and Yoda will say it will melt in 48 hours but for those who enjoy any and all snow, there u go. Keeping hope alive!

if we talk all the models you showed and did a mean...its a 3-6 inch snowstorm...just like we got last week

[aldie 22]

Just now, Ji said:

if we talk all the models you showed and did a mean...its a 3-6 inch snowstorm...just like we got last week

And there's your 30" winter and you can ride off into the sunset on your horse smoking marlboros 

[showmethesnow]

Looking over the latest EPS and we have seen improvements over the train wreck/disaster (nod to Ji  ) 12Z run.

The Friday system did see a bump up on the snowfall means with a max strip of 1 1/2" DC/Balt and east vs. the 1/2 to 1" totals previously. Individual members look healthier as a whole with snowfall, with roughly a quarter of them getting 2" plus through some portion of the DC/Balt corridor and several of 4"+. Haven't really been particularly enthused with the upside on this system (as well as some of the other models) but the timing is good (late night/early morning) so it wouldn't surprise me if in fact some do see an inch or two in the general region.

Not that I particularly expect it but as I said yesterday the possible Saturday system is still probably worth keeping an eye on despite the temps looking rough. 

Looking at the 12z run below. What we have is a coastal low signature off of OBX which is the byproduct of our Friday system. We also have a low to our west. What we have seen leading into this look is that energy riding through a trough of low pressure to the deep south has been ejected northward into the Midwest forming our western low. Very little if any energy has been ejected eastward towards our coastal. So what we are seeing is that the western low is wrecking our temp profile as it drives a SW flow in front of it. We also see that the coastal is weak and ramping up very slowly.

 

Now compare the overnight run. What we are now seeing is the energy running to our south is splitting, some heading north and some heading east towards our coastal. This split is effectively weakening our Midwest low and strengthening our coastal. So with a weaker western low we have a weaker SW flow in front of it thus a better temp profile, We are also seeing a quicker ramp up of the coastal off our shores. 

 

Now the above look still won't get it done. Though the temps have improved the cold we still need is in central PA and the low is still not strong enough and/or close enough to the coast to draw it southward let alone kick any moisture of substance through our region. But there is a path to a possible win here. If that energy running through the south ejects mostly/all towards the east into our coastal we then have little to no western low reflection to wreck the temps and we have a stronger and quicker ramping of our coastal which would probably pull it closer to the coast helping to pull in both the cold and the moisture.

 

Now I have mostly focused on the surface here so what are we seeing at 500's? We actually have seen an improvement there as well where I really think it counts.

Below we have the 12 Z run. First off the heights (arrow) would allow this coastal to grow and quicker if given the incentive. As mentioned before ejecting the southern energy eastward is one such incentive. But another way is to get the support at upper levels in the form of a short wave. Though somewhat subtle notice that in fact we do have a shortwave. The problem here though is it is just a little too late to the party. This later arrival means the support it is giving is focused on our Midwest low as it is pulling the energy in the south up to the west enforcing and strengthening this low. There is one other feature to take note of, the pv suppression we are seeing in the plains. This is knocking down height builds to the west of our shortwave which is effectively dampening our shortwave as it approaches our coastal low lending very little support to our coastal. So this slower SW solution is basically a double whammy where it is propping up our Midwest low and yet giving very little support to our coastal. 

 

 

Now look at what we see with the latest run. We are seeing the SW ejecting a little quicker eastward. With this quicker solution we are seeing less support for our Midwest low as now the upper level support is focusing more to the east towards our coastal. The energy from the south is now also being split in response. These are both good things as it increases the incentives for coastal development and weakening our Midwest low. One last thing to note. Notice the pv induced suppression in the plains. This is coming in weaker then the 12Z which is allowing slightly better height builds to the west of our shortwave. This in turn allows for slightly less dampening of our shortwave as it runs through the region which is a good thing.

 

The above is still not there yet but it is getting close. Just a little quicker shortwave might be all that we need to see this turn into a possible win as it would hopefully force the southern energy mostly/fully into our coastal instead of into the Midwest as well as place the upper levels in a much better position to support our developing coastal. I also wouldn't throw out a little less pv suppression in the plains allowing for better height builds to the west of our shortwave. This would hopefully allow for a stronger more distinct shortwave as it moves into position for supporting the coastal. 

Now the above isn't a prediction in any way as the models have a mind of their own, it is just nothing more then my thoughts on a possible win scenario (figured you were all tired of hearing about the Fail scenarios  ). It is something worth keeping an eye on as it has 24-48 hr possible lead time surprise written on it, probably more so then I have seen in awhile. Of course I am going senile so there is that. And I know some will argue the temps will not allow for snow and admittedly as projected now they are rough. But let's see how they respond if we do in fact see an improvement with that shortwave.

***Note: Just so you know. The EPS snowfall means says my possible win scenario sucks wind as we only see a very slight increase during that period of time. And the members that do see snow favor N/W of the cities towards the pa line.

I was going to write up something about the Monday and Wed systems but have spent far too much time on the above. But I did see some improvements and I would not write either one off at this time. And to be honest the Saturday storm will have a huge impact with what we see with those two systems as it looks to strengthen and moves into the 50/50 region. So until we get some clarity on that feature it is probably not worth the time to look too hard or buy into the models through the Mon/Wed stretch as of yet.

[dallen7908]

Percent of EPS members giving College Park at least 1, 3, 6, and 12" over the period ending at 7 PM on March 6th.

Note: Latest odds" of exceeding 1" and 3" near the MD/PA border are considerably higher: 80 and 46%, respectively.  

[Icefishingrocks]

Great post! Thanks for taking the time to put it all together.

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Percent of EPS members giving College Park at least 1, 3, 6, and 12" over the period ending at 7 PM on March 6th.

Note: Latest odds" of exceeding 1" and 3" near the MD/PA border are considerably higher: 80 and 46%, respectively.  

I like seeing this chart because it actually tracks real trend line type stuff. It also shows how volatile models typically are. One criticism though....it's College Park which is basically the tropics but thanks for posting 

[psuhoffman]

44 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea...personally if the OP Euro was in the 72-84 hour range and shifted north like that I'd be pretty concerned but being well past 100 hours I'll just take it just as another possible outcome 

I still expect jumps. I think when I said “if guidance settles on this for another couple runs we can kiss it goodbye” people might have thought that’s what I expect. I don’t.  This is way too complicated a pattern to know. Too many waves in a fast progression to feel confident in anything. 

My general assessment remains that we will see snow somehow from all this but that I would like to see a more amplified trough and given the fast progressive flow my 8”+ storm is unlikely. 

[87storms]

13 hours ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

The gfs is the worst model I wouldn’t make my forecast based on the gfs. Everything is on the air at this time

It’s jumpy.  Looking at the 6z fv3 vs gfs, I think the fv3 is a little quicker and further north with that wave entering the west coast Saturday.  Will need that timed right.  I could see how this could be over amped  or just taking the southern route without much of a phase with the northern stream.  Too early to tell.

[stormtracker]

We are going to be ok guys. 

[Hyphnx]

21 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We are going to be ok guys. 

As long as everything happens on Monday... Seems to be EURO vs all. Will see if the EURO caves in later.

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, Hyphnx said:

As long as everything happens on Monday... Seems to be EURO vs all. Will see if the EURO caves in later.

The Euro caves to nobody. Are you new here?

[Hyphnx]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

The Euro caves to nobody. Are you new here?

Not at all 

[BristowWx]

13 minutes ago, Hyphnx said:

Not at all 

I think no matter what happens we can all agree RIC is not getting snow from this event.  It happens.  I wanted an egg sandwich the other day but we ran out.  I was sad but realized it wasn’t meant to be. I had toast.  

[MD Snow]

26 minutes ago, Scraff said:

The Euro caves to nobody. Are you new here?

Euro is in the process of giving back our snow Thursday night that it took away. It’s caving to the nam. Lol

[Hyphnx]

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I think no matter what happens we can all agree RIC is not getting snow from this event.  It happens.  I wanted an egg sandwich the other day but we ran out.  I was sad but realized it wasn’t meant to be. I had toast.  

I'm all for it! I rather move forward than to keep getting my hopes up.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Hyphnx said:

I'm all for it! I rather move forward than to keep getting my hopes up.

Just messing around.  You’ll probably do better than me.  Or maybe we both fail.  Doesn’t matter in the big scheme of life.  

[Hyphnx]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Just messing around.  You’ll probably do better than me.  Or maybe we both fail.  Doesn’t matter in the big scheme of life.  

Going to the ABC store either way. I hope you're right and wrong. May the snow fall in your backyard.

[Scraff]

6 minutes ago, Hyphnx said:

Going to the ABC store either way. I hope you're right and wrong. May the snow fall in your backyard.

I’m more a fan of XYZ, but to each is own. LOLz.  Should be an interesting 12z suite.

[87storms]

i could see how this could end up as a rain to snow system, but that's a pretty decent shot of cold air funneling in with a good amount of precip available.  guess we'll find out at 12z in a few minutes.

[stormtracker]

If you like rain, that's a wonderful storm on the ICON.  It changes to heavy snow before ending tho.  

[MD Snow]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If you like rain, that's a wonderful storm on the ICON.  It changes to heavy snow before ending tho.  

But it throws us some coastal love Tuesday night/Wednesday. 

[stormtracker]

GFS looking similar to the ICON so far, even down to the thermals.   We may be in for a primarily rain event as depicted.  Not a forecast.  

[MD Snow]

12z CMC is a driving rainstorm as well. 

[Hyphnx]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS looking similar to the ICON so far, even down to the thermals.   We may be in for a primarily rain event as depicted.  Not a forecast.  

h108 is blue for the Northern part of the subforum

[Fozz]

At least the GFS and ICON show a nice changeover to snow. GGEM hardly has even that.

[stormtracker]

Just now, Hyphnx said:

h108 is blue for the Northern part of the subforum

Yeah, they will do well regardless.  

[stormtracker]

Just now, Fozz said:

At least the GFS and ICON show a nice changeover to snow. GGEM hardly has even that.

Yeah, at least there's a changeover.   We're really not that far off from an all snow event.  Plenty of time to go.

[stormtracker]

Seems like the theme today is for rain changing to snow for us...but like I said, we're not far from mostly snow.  

[Interstate]

Wow it is a very similar outcome on both the GFS and ICON for this far out.

[Solution Man]

In the game