showmethesnow Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: No one should be doing any victory laps based on any model runs right now, this is going to bounce around a bit before we get a better idea on the details. The trend is definitely more amplified. I kind of started out rooting against this wave in favor of the next one...but if this continues there won't be any next one and this is becoming "big enough" to be worth it so... I still think that next wave had the better upside but whatever. But the best part about this run is that MAYBE we can go an hour without CHO updates from @Snowchaser No victory laps here. Along for the ride to see where the models take us because I really don't have a clue how this will play out. Think you are giving up too easily on the possible Wed. system if the Monday deal amps up. Looks as there is a two day gap between these two systems which might provide enough time for recovery of heights in the east for the Wed system. Only time will tell though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 I think the Euro is programmed to show a D10 threat every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Guess that the Euro didn't get the memo that the CMC was out to lunch with the Monday storm. Meh...gives Baltimore too much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 im all in for the March 8 threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: im all in for the March 8 threat Exactly. Haha...what if the March 6 threat mysteriously turns into the March 8 threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: im all in for the March 8 threat You mean the day 10 threat? I thought you swore off of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 6 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Exactly. Haha...what if the March 6 threat mysteriously turns into the March 8 threat? the story of this winter has been delay. The epic Feb period that we were suppose to have is now delayed to early March. As a guitar player...i love delay. As a weather hobby guy..Naso much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 All of the possible threats remind me a lot of the late season pattern in 14&15. Clarity never came into focus until basically hr72 at best. Go back and read the disco threads. Flow is fast. Even if the euro or gfs or whatever showed a foot today I wouldn't trust a damn thing because we're always 1 run away from a big shift. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: the story of this every winter has been delay. The epic Feb period that we were suppose to have is now delayed to early March. As a guitar player...i love delay. As a weather hobby guy..Naso much Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 42 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Guess that the Euro didn't get the memo that the CMC was out to lunch with the Monday storm. Oregon Ridge sledding special 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Big dog(s) less likely; Percent of EPS members giving College Park > 1, 3, 6, and 12" during the next 8 1/2 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 9 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Big dog(s) less likely; Percent of EPS members giving College Park > 1, 3, 6, and 12" during the next 8 1/2 days Ouch. Rough hit. Not sure why anyone bought into the midweek farce. I could tell that looked sketchy. Gotta hedge our bets on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Scanning through the members, it’s seems to me that the miss on the eps is south for the Sunday/Monday threat. I don’t see many Ptype worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No one should be doing any victory laps based on any model runs right now, this is going to bounce around a bit before we get a better idea on the details. The trend is definitely more amplified. I kind of started out rooting against this wave in favor of the next one...but if this continues there won't be any next one and this is becoming "big enough" to be worth it so... I still think that next wave had the better upside but whatever. But the best part about this run is that MAYBE we can go an hour without CHO updates from @Snowchaser Shoot. I really wanted the big dog... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 EPS is kind of deflating. Totally lost the 1st and 3rd threats and wrt to the Sunday/Monday wave there is a weird mix of weak south misses and too amplified and rain solutions. Some hits in there but honestly it was an awful 12z eps run compared to the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: EPS is kind of deflating. Totally lost the 1st and 3rd threats and wrt to the Sunday/Monday wave there is a weird mix of weak south misses and too amplified and rain solutions. Some hits in there but honestly it was an awful 12z eps run compared to the last few runs. Wait 12 hours it will change again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS is kind of deflating. Totally lost the 1st and 3rd threats and wrt to the Sunday/Monday wave there is a weird mix of weak south misses and too amplified and rain solutions. Some hits in there but honestly it was an awful 12z eps run compared to the last few runs. Yeah no real sense of an organized “threat”. Pretty shotgun for a 144hr threat not really have a lean either way. Like you said, deflating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Agree that Friday and midweek have a least temporarily gone poof. Still seems to be a signal for a light to moderate event for Monday. My nonexpert eye would say about 20-25% of the members show 4 or more inches from DC N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS is kind of deflating. Totally lost the 1st and 3rd threats and wrt to the Sunday/Monday wave there is a weird mix of weak south misses and too amplified and rain solutions. Some hits in there but honestly it was an awful 12z eps run compared to the last few runs. Even for the Northern crew (NYC) it sucks. I think we lost the good vibes today. Normally once a downturn like this happens it does not turn around fast, or in our favor. But hey, just say'in. Very complex, be a fool to say this is how it will play out. so we keep watch'in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 I think the eps is basically saying anywhere from southern va to new york could see a decent snow storm on Sunday/Monday. I thought there was some decent hits in there for us, but just as many north hits and alot of weaker southern hits in there too. The OP seemed like the best case for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 EPS is an absolute disaster but i warned Leeburg04 that it would be. We went 7 inches to 4 inches in the mean. Looks like we finally get some prologned cold and its dry. So much for record -SOI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: EPS is an absolute disaster but i warned Leeburg04 that it would be. We went 7 inches to 4 inches in the mean. Looks like we finally get some prologned cold and its dry. So much for record -SOI I'm glad you're finally accepting blame after all of these years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS is kind of deflating. Totally lost the 1st and 3rd threats and wrt to the Sunday/Monday wave there is a weird mix of weak south misses and too amplified and rain solutions. Some hits in there but honestly it was an awful 12z eps run compared to the last few runs. DT got pulled back in today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said: DT got pulled back in today... that part is funny. if he had just stuck with winter is over and rode it to the end it would be easier to spin later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 20 minutes ago, BristowWx said: that part is funny. if he had just stuck with winter is over and rode it to the end it would be easier to spin later. So tempting it is, this game we play. DT could not control himself, his desire for snow was too much, and secretly his hidden desire to post the Snow Dog . I can't blame him. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 9 minutes ago, frd said: So tempting it is, this game we play. DT could not control himself, his desire for snow was too much, and secretly his hidden desire to post the Snow Dog . I can't blame him. And who knows he could nail it. I see nothing from today that makes me think anything is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: And who knows he could nail it. I see nothing from today that makes me think anything is a lock. I’m hoping he is right about the snow, just as I hoped he was wrong when he canceled winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Yes the 12z EPS sucked. Still time. Still chances. It's good to not have time for the atomic level analysis of each and every run. Refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Just a slight difference between 18z GFS at 132 and 12z GFS at 138 for the surface/precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Gfs says what Sunday/Monday storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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