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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
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Just now, jaydreb said:

Worse for DC. It shifted the r/s line about 50 miles north. Took away half my wiggle room.  Better for PSU.  

Matter of perspective I suppose. I'm still going back and forth on snow or no snow. If that holds for another 3 days I'll start thinking about who/where/how much. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

It's fine.  It starts as snow for all of us...mixes for DC...Bob is all snow, which is what he was referencing.   It's not quite as bad as jaydreb made is sound.  

As usual we're walking the line in the cities/burbs. Every 6 hours will add new specific details that are only worth discussing for 6 hours let alone 5 days. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

As usual we're walking the line in the cities/burbs. Every 6 hours will add new specific details that are only worth discussing for 6 hours let alone 5 days. 

Yup, it's a pretty formidable storm.  Haven't got the exact QPF amounts, but looks decent.  I know it's a weenie handbook thing to say, but I genuinely am fine where I'm at right now.  

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yup, it's a pretty formidable storm.  Haven't got the exact QPF amounts, but looks decent.  I know it's a weenie handbook thing to say, but I genuinely am fine where I'm at right now.  

We are basically right in between the GFS and Euro which is not a bad place to be at this range.  

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Basically needs to trend wetter and colder.  There is time. 

huge snowfall gradient going North to South more devastating as you go East , as in central Delaware hello 1 inch Dover , Cape May NJ. zip and Baltimore 4 inches , damn cold afterwards.  

 

 

 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Yup, it's a pretty formidable storm.  Haven't got the exact QPF amounts, but looks decent.  I know it's a weenie handbook thing to say, but I genuinely am fine where I'm at right now.  

The mids are dangerously close on this run. 50 mile shift is noise. Not much if any room to get worse but it's prob going to ping pong instead of continuously bleeding. Would hardly surprise me if it's a northern tier only storm assuming it happens at all. I'm not going to pick anything apart though. Let's get to Saturday and still be in the game before freakouts. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Much more amplified wave Monday... looks like its going to completely kill the following wave.  There is an obvious trend towards a more amplified wave Monday and less Wednesday across all guidance.  The euro just upped the ante on the Monday wave though.  

Awful.

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Guess that the Euro didn't get the memo that the CMC was out to lunch with the Monday storm.

12zeurosnowfall.gif.35365334d04f8ecb1ccf072c7b97ab12.gif

 

No one should be doing any victory laps based on any model runs right now, this is going to bounce around a bit before we get a better idea on the details.  The trend is definitely more amplified.  I kind of started out rooting against this wave in favor of the next one...but if this continues there won't be any next one and this is becoming "big enough" to be worth it so...  I still think that next wave had the better upside but whatever.   But the best part about this run is that MAYBE we can go an hour without CHO updates from @Snowchaser

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Bob is right....we are in the game for one more....just keep one eye on it until later this week....again easier said then done.  I have moved from Greenbelt, to Bowie, to Ellicott City, and now to Brunswick.  I moved for the family, not because of snow, but getting more snow is one of the fringe benefits of a long commute.

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