Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,611
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

Looking at the overnight runs and all I can say is the next 8 days or so could be very interesting. Or a complete Dud. Take your pick. And this isn't to say that beyond 8 days into the end of the extended is out of the picture as changes we are seeing there look as if that period of time may be in play as well. Small changes here or there could/will have major impacts especially if they occur in the near term as they will snowball the further out in time we go. 

A lot going on the next 8 days and it is really hard to focus on any one particular event and have a firm grasp of what to expect when it comes to any specifics (rain, snow, how much, how little, suppressed, ots, etc...) as each preceding system will setup the systems following it. And at this point I am counting 5 systems that are impacting our general region in this 8 day span. That makes for a lot of uncertainty the farther out in time we go.

I could write a book of what we see as far as the EPS and the GEFS but I won't. I will just hit on the high lights. As far as the Friday system it looks as if the possibility of a swath of snow of 1-3 inches will setup somewhere between S MD and the PA line. Where that sets up will be dependent on how quickly and strongly our early Thursday system ramps up on the forming coastal low that is departing OTS. Quicker/Stronger and the boundary will be shifted southward somewhat putting S MD/DC/N VA into play. Conversely slower/weaker and the PA line is the winner.

This then brings us to the weekend. What we saw on the EPS was a fairly decent shift westward of the 500's. This shift is now allowing for the possibility of a cutter but it is now also putting into play the possibility of a coastal actually impacting the region. At this time we are fighting temps but it wouldn't take much in the way of changes to actually have the cold in place or move in to make this a win especially N and W of the cities. Needless to say my interest level for the weekend shot up significantly. 

Beyond that it is becoming pretty much a crap shoot on what to expect. The Mon/Tues system can not be dismissed especially for the southern portions of the region. The EPS control run actually runs a swath of 6-9" just south of DC. And the possible Wed system is still very much in play as well. EPS degraded a touch in that regard with less dig but it also shifted the 500's westward a touch which may balance out somewhat. GEFS continues to improve at 500's as it moves towards the EPS. This WED system is the one I continue to feel holds the most promise for a Big Dog but after what I have seen on the latest run I am not so sure I would dismiss any of the systems beforehand for possible bigger impacts. And beyond this 8 day stretch can not be dismissed at this time either as we are seeing improvements in that regards as well.

Now mind you all this is predicated on what the models are showing at this time. Nothing is set in stone and I am sure we will see changes on future runs. But as I said, it could be an interesting stretch ahead. Or it could be a fitting end to our winter that had such high expectations.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Overnight EPS looked good to me through Day 9.  4-5 inch mean across DC, all of MD.  Control over a foot.  Close to half of the members give us three or more inches.  About 10 big hitters....keep in mind this is potentially from Friday, Monday, and the midweek big daddy.

In my opinion the one to watch is Monday. I don’t buy the wave midweek. Models try to hold back energy all the time and develop that 2nd piece and it often doesn’t work out. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Now mind you all this is predicated on what the models are showing at this time. Nothing is set in stone and I am sure we will see changes on future runs. But as I said, it could be an interesting stretch ahead. Or it could be a fitting end to our winter that had such high expectations.

Seems based on the GEM, GFS and Euro March 7 and 8 th has real potential.  The Euro control storm progression makes a lot of sense based on the pattern upcoming, whether that is the final outcome who knows, and I am just not saying that because it has significant snow. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Not to be negative, it seems like there is potential here. But it also seems like most models are showing fail at this time for pretty much every chance we have. Of course it could trend better; but at this time it seems like a lot of hype over "lets hope it trends in the right direction".

Yep lot of ways to fail despite having “3” chances. I truly think Monday is our best chance. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Ukmet looks to be in the Euro/ fv3 camp for the Monday system looking at overall h5 setup . No surface on Meteocentre but if it's a miss its probably a near miss.

Im going to end tye year royally pissed if that Monday storm amps up just enough to fringe us but enough to suppress the Tuesday/Wednesday storm. I’m a little worried about the spacing between those 2. The second one has more upside with the better upper level setup but if the first wave amps more it might squash it. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Im going to end tye year royally pissed if that Monday storm amps up just enough to fringe us but enough to suppress the Tuesday/Wednesday storm. I’m a little worried about the spacing between those 2. The second one has more upside with the better upper level setup but if the first wave amps more it might squash it. 

Frankly, whenever we have multiple waves with not much spacing, it feels like that is exactly what happens.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Not to be negative, it seems like there is potential here. But it also seems like most models are showing fail at this time for pretty much every chance we have. Of course it could trend better; but at this time it seems like a lot of hype over "lets hope it trends in the right direction".

Good. No point in changing your personality now.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Not to be negative, it seems like there is potential here. But it also seems like most models are showing fail at this time for pretty much every chance we have. Of course it could trend better; but at this time it seems like a lot of hype over "lets hope it trends in the right direction".

When you are right you are right. Lots of Fail here through the upcoming stretch. Oh wait... Maybe you were referring to the GFS suite as most models? And strangely enough as we continue to see that move more towards the EPS we are seeing improvements with that as well. Now these snowmaps are just a lazy mans way of showing potential. When I look at the 500's I believe they show even more potential what the snowmaps even portray and for the most part they continue to improve. Not to pick on you but we (or at least I don't) really have little idea what to expect in the upcoming period of time. We could win big with a big dog thrown in as the potential is there. We could score a decent amount of snow on several moderate events or we could have a complete dud. There really is little way of knowing at this time as each system will impact the following. So it isn't so much about hype that some of us are throwing out there and more so about potential and nothing more.

eurosnowfall.thumb.gif.d3a0ad05d1fff4d7e32fc2fefea82857.gif

epssnowfall.thumb.gif.64608d0c92b534ec464e497bc6227c37.gif

cmcsnowfall.thumb.gif.b96d504aa7a8680830aeea4214e26f8a.gif

 

gfssnowfall.thumb.gif.5d637f14e45634ce6f0966ac9e7b980c.gif

 

gefssnowfall.thumb.gif.ae163b1adbb19afe4279ef4c907861fe.gif

 

fv3snowfall.thumb.gif.20a4f942c744c6e8eb38866639db70ea.gif

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Icon has the cutter solution on Saturday which then suppresses the flow to much for the Monday system. A perfect example as to why each of these upcoming systems will have big implications for the one after. 

lol our fail scenario in MD is clear...strong enough cutter Saturday so the Monday storm misses just south but amplifies enough to delay the development of the storm Wednesday which gets going late and hooks back in to crush New England.  Snow to the south of us, snow to the north of us...stuck in the middle with bare ground.  

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am NOT predicting that fail scenario just saying that would be the most likely way we fail that's all.  I am indifferent right now.  There is a LOT of potential.  I could even see back to back hits in this setup.  I could also see back to back fails.  There are multiple waves in a fast flow with tight spacing and the exact result of each will affect the one behind it and there is no way anyone will be able to nail the exact details from this range on each.  There certainly is potential though for one or maybe even more hits from this look.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I am NOT predicting that fail scenario just saying that would be the most likely way we fail that's all.  I am indifferent right now.  There is a LOT of potential.  I could even see back to back hits in this setup.  I could also see back to back fails.  There are multiple waves in a fast flow with tight spacing and the exact result of each will affect the one behind it and there is no way anyone will be able to nail the exact details from this range on each.  There certainly is potential though for one or maybe even more hits from this look.  

Let's just make this easy and go 3 for 3 lol. 

1 to 3 on Friday

6 to 12 on Monday.

6 to 12 on Wednesday. 

Spring can start the following weekend with temps in the 60's lol.

  • Like 4
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...