DDweatherman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Definitely like the shot at friday dropping a few inches on us Friday morning, not bad on timing. Also can't dislike the next 2 shots afterward on models and the EPS specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 That storm on the 6th really explodes off the delmarva. Need it to do that at Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Ukmet shifted way South for Frday, Up North does very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 UkMet does bring precip to the region on Friday, but not cold enough, until well N and NW. That is why the snowfall map looks the way it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 I'm so excited for Boston! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 If the UKMET verified like that, it might be a good weekend to head to the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm so excited for Boston! Would like be totally awesome for it to trend colder here on Friday, and get some snow too. However, I have used my three wishes already. At least there is stuff to track ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, frd said: Would like be totally awesome for it to trend colder here on Friday, and get some snow too. However, I have used my three wishes already. At least there is stuff to track ! 12z icon and 0z euro had 1-3” dc north on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Gonna go out on a limb and say 12z GEFS took a good step in the right direction for our March 6 threat. Just looking at 500mb charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 12z icon and 0z euro had 1-3” dc north on Friday. Wonder what the implication will be today from the Euro seeing that the UkMet jumped South. Does the Euro go colder and snowier ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Gonna go out on a limb and say 12z GEFS took a good step in the right direction for our March 6 threat. Just looking at 500mb charts. Looks very very cold ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 15 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Gonna go out on a limb and say 12z GEFS took a good step in the right direction for our March 6 threat. Just looking at 500mb charts. It did at h5 for sure... at the surface its still suppressed, a lot of NC hits. Still far enough out that I am not overly concerned with that. Euro is more amplified with that threat and the GFS is trending that way also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 where was this look up top all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: where was this look up top all winter Kind of feels like last winter. Bad pattern until March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: where was this look up top all winter Do you think this look could end up helping suppress the Friday threat enough to turn it into a legit snow producer for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: Do you think this look could end up helping suppress the Friday threat enough to turn it into a legit snow producer for us? Euro looks better for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Euro is a nice 1-3 for Friday. Colder than 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 Euro is nice at 96 hours. WTF did this come from? Ninja'd 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 I think the GGEM picked up on this event a couple of days ago, but I didn't really buy it yet. Good to see the Euro on board, as well as the UKMET being almost there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Do you think this look could end up helping suppress the Friday threat enough to turn it into a legit snow producer for us? yes... will be close though, there is still a lot of SE ridge to contend with but that look up top is why we are even talking about it and its not 70 degrees this week. But that blocking up top forces the TPV to rotate down and sets off a chain of events that ends with a huge cold dump into the CONUS and several threats not just the one later this week...after that the weak wave around the 4th and then the chance at a more major amplification along the east coast around the 6th. All of that is set into motion by that look up to which really is getting going right now. Finally not some day 15 fantasy nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Schools systems in the DMV will be excited for Friday....NOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Euro is nice at 96 hours. WTF did this come from? Ninja'd It has kind of been there on the euro off and on for a while... the GFS has been going hard core cutter though and when the euro kind of took a step that way a couple days ago for a run or two I think many of us assumed that was where it was heading. It has since trended back and the gfs has also started to deamplify the system but is still too warm. The euro has killed the gfs a few times this year with temps though so there is reason to believe it might be onto something here. Besides the fact its just flat out better lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: yes... will be close though, there is still a lot of SE ridge to contend with but that look up top is why we are even talking about it and its not 70 degrees this week. But that blocking up top forces the TPV to rotate down and sets off a chain of events that ends with a huge cold dump into the CONUS and several threats not just the one later this week...after that the weak wave around the 4th and then the chance at a more major amplification along the east coast around the 6th. All of that is set into motion by that look up to which really is getting going right now. Finally not some day 15 fantasy nonsense. psu, you think after the period you mention above, the tracking declines after say March 12 th ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 EURO even gets CHO into the mix with that nice shift south... might need to keep one eye open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 14 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Kind of feels like last winter. Bad pattern until March. Last year was a legit BAD pattern until March and then a very long lasting sustained good pattern but a bit too late to reach full potential here. This year was more a mediocre ok pattern MOST of the winter that we kept expecting to get great and just stayed kinda ehh. The only time we really had a long lasting shutout pattern to deal with was the second half of December. But the crazy epic long range looks kept making the kinda only ok reality a letdown. I don't think this pattern lasts as long ad last March did...the blocking looks less stable and more transient this time but it looks to set up a 10 day favorable window with possibly as many as 4 threats within that range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Euro would be a nice little early morning event I guess...perfect timing of 1am-10am or so. Temp starts at 34-35ish around 1, drops to 29-30 at 7am and rises to 38-39 by 1pm. Probably would melt fast but another small morning event to cash in on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 It's amazing to me..the Euro at 156 has a rather large precip mass moving toward the east coast and the GFS twins have nothing..or it's suppressed down to Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Euro just misses us with a nice storm next Monday. Nice hit for NC verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, frd said: psu, you think after the period you mention above, the tracking declines after say March 12 th ? I do not think we will be tracking into late March or April this year but I am not sure exactly when it shuts off. The guidance might be too fast in breaking down the current patter in the long range, like they have been all winter. The MJO progression would favor a trough in the east until it gets into phase 4 and add in the lag time and that probably isn't until after March 15th or so. Right now we have the wave Friday...another one early next week...the possible more major system mid week around the 6th...after that I could see one or two more threats before everything breaks down. If the March 6th system bombs that would create an overrunning threat behind it from the next wave. Hard to say...but it certainly doesn't look like there is a lack of systems coming across. There could also be a relax and possibly one more attempt to get the trough into the east before it all breaks down mid month... but either way once the mjo progresses into warm phases we are likely done for the season and that looks likely the second half of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 @psuhoffman some on another board are saying the same thing that caused the NC hit in December will happen again on the Euro. I am not so sure. The current set up at days 7 to 11 are not to me similiar to last December. If anything you could say a big dog is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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