CAPE Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Just now, showmethesnow said: What do they say, 'Be careful what you wish for'? I wanted that pv dropping a little more west then previous runs but now the EPS is going hog wild. Yes and I tried to warn you about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yes and I tried to warn you about this. I didn't expect it to shift it freaking 500-750 miles west though. Really think we need that pv dropping down roughly in the W Lakes otherwise with how it is currently evolving on the models through our period of interest I think we will be fighting suppression. Anyway, 'ONWARD TO THE 12Z!!!'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 @C.A.P.E.One positive that I did see was on the 00Z GFS. Liked the possibilities it was throwing at us in the extended. Just a little tweaking here and there and it would be a memorable stretch. But GFS op. At range. Enough said. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Just some subtle differences for next Saturday compared to a few days ago. Oh how we love the LR eta- I know the second panel is the EPS, It actually looks a little more torchy than the op lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 8 hours ago, BristowWx said: I hope spring is cold w/40s.and rain until May. Hate spring and summer. Hate flowers and weeds. I’m probably in the minority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 10 hours ago, BristowWx said: I hope spring is cold w/40s.and rain until May. Hate spring and summer. Hate flowers and weeds. I’m probably in the minority. I hate the allergies. Doesn't need to be in the 40s but rain always brings nice relief from them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Just minor differences at day 6 . Gfs has a 988 bomb over Chicago and Fv3 a coastal off Carolina. Same result though. The advertised upper air pattern on pretty much all guidance looks awful for frozen potential now for next weekend. Probably time to look towards the 4-5th and hope that doesn't slip away too lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icefishingrocks Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Am I the only one that watches it snow on traffic cameras in other states? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 6 minutes ago, Icefishingrocks said: Am I the only one that watches it snow on traffic cameras in other states? Probably not. I read NWS zone forecasts for obscure areas and keep moving my mouse over elevation to see how it changes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 hour ago, Fozz said: I hate the allergies. Doesn't need to be in the 40s but rain always brings nice relief from them. Amen. I have suffered with them my entire life. Although life is definitely better with Alegra D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Amen. I have suffered with them my entire life. Although life is definitely better with Alegra D. I was on shots for many years which helped immensely for some allergens. I still have to use Allegra most days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 35 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Same result though. The advertised upper air pattern on pretty much all guidance looks awful for frozen potential now for next weekend. Probably time to look towards the 4-5th and hope that doesn't slip away too lol. Is the possibility still there for the 4-5th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 30 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Is the possibility still there for the 4-5th? Sure. I mean even next weekend cant be written off.. its still 6+ days away. If recent trends on the guidance are correct with a more western position of the tpv as it drops south, it opens the door for a phase with Pac energy, per some of the 0z runs, and even if it doesn't go to that extreme, it would allow for a storm to track to our NW. Could also end up further east and suppress the storm track some and work in our favor. This outcome is more likely for the period beyond next weekend IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 26 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Is the possibility still there for the 4-5th? the Canadian has a hit... gfs definitely has the storm over our area... just by looking at the precip maps it's still on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 I think we need to root for whatever we need for next weekend to set up the one behind it. If we are going get a big one I think it is after next weekend and happens because next weekend becomes a 50/50 . I want a big one. Send next weekend to Chicago if it gives us a legit follow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Yesterday's bullish 12Z EPS suite was easy to toss because it was so out of line with previous cycles. It showed a 22-34% chance* of > 6" of snow during the next 300 hours from DC to the MD/PA border. The 00Z suite from yesterday gave us a 8-18% chance over 312 hours while this morning's suite gives us a 8-18% chance over the next 288 hours --- back to square one. Wish they didn't use the same initialization time for each suite - would remove some of the noise. *Obviously, I'm using the term chance loosely, as the percent of members showing > 6" of snow during the medium-to-long-range differs from our actual chances, which for percentages > ~15% are usually less than that for long-range forecasts due to the 10/1 rule and models' cold bias in the long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 All the seasonals with a great look on an active winter for Nor Easters blew dirt. This is so true, the Pac jet ruled , and combined with the -PDO really moved the outcomes off to the South, . cutter or coastal hugger. You need to have a good December I think to feel confident about Jan through March. November snowfalls have no real meaning. Also Judah failed with his AO forecast, it will end the season positive despite a robust finish in the SAI and even early season record NA snowfall coverage. After the record NA snowcover we lost a lot of the snowcover and went below rapidly, as soon as the Pac changed and we lost the - SOI and then the High pressure began to form in the Pacific reinforcing the WAR. Seems the oceans are more important for climate then SSWE, AO and the SAI . The Pac being the KING ! The rest is from bluewave from @bluewave. Officially the first winter since 11-12 with no real benchmark track 40/70 storms. Notice how dry that storm track has been compared to 2013-2018 when it was so active. Cutter and hugger storm tracks have completely dominated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 CMC is about as good you can ask for without a major storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Gfs and fv3 still have the storm, just suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 March 4- 7 time frame looks primed for something coming at us from the gom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2019 Author Share Posted February 24, 2019 Canda loves us. CMC is pretty good at the tail end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Gfs and fv3 still have the storm, just suppressed. In the old days this is where we would want it. Not so sure anymore with the revamped GFS. Doesn't seem to have the suppression bias it once had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 40 minutes ago, frd said: The rest is from bluewave from @bluewave. Officially the first winter since 11-12 with no real benchmark track 40/70 storms. Notice how dry that storm track has been compared to 2013-2018 when it was so active. Cutter and hugger storm tracks have completely dominated. That bottom image is pretty much the image of our worst nightmares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 15 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: In the old days this is where we would want it. Not so sure anymore with the revamped GFS. Doesn't seem to have the suppression bias it once had. No storm has tracked up the Eastern seaboard this year in a good way. No way to curve the flow. I am ready for the beach and the icecream man. I can smell the Coppertone now if I close my eyes. My god to live in the long periods where there was little snow here would be torture, or better yet, without snow you can't get excited about snow and then no hobby. The GFS could be overplaying the cold but that does not work like you said , if has been addressed some how in the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Still very poor agreement with the day 6 cutter. GFS amplifies amplifies the southern stream and phases it just east of the rockies, while the CMC and the FV3 show more of a shred. GFS did lag the energy back a little more this run so maybe that's a sign it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 @C.A.P.E.we talked yesterday about how the western dig of the tpv was killing the March 1-2 threat but helping after. What I’m more disappointed is the absolute shred factory setting up behind whatever that first wave ends up doing. We normally score as the cold relaxes not presses. Our best window would be the 4-8th. But guidance has moved away from anything in the northern stream digging and phaseing and instead just slides the northern stream to the north and acts as a shred factory to anything under it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 I liked seeing “some” south hits at long range but the gefs is VERY suppressed. Pretty much universal agreement targeting the Carolinas or just squashing the storm completely. I would love the look if I was in NC. We need some changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Well it looks like this will bring the cold but will it give the snow to NC lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 FTR ive not punted anything. If the southern feature is dominant the March 1-2 could work but it’s complicated and we suck at complicated. After that still has potential, it’s plenty far out for guidance to adjust especially given it’s a volitile time of year with shorter wavelengths. But the trends the last 24 hours leave me less than inspired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Euro 240 Fantasy storm FTW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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