Ji Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 No thunderstorms.Enjoy your epo driven wind gust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 21 minutes ago, Ji said: Zzzzzz....I hate this time of year. So depressing Why? Because the rest of the winter has been so exciting? I don’t mind March because we typically get some surprise snows. It’s our last shot at winter and then we can warm up to Spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 19 minutes ago, Ji said: 20 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: No thunderstorms. Enjoy your epo driven wind gust I wonder if we can get real +PNA without Strong El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Almost time to track sustained 60s and 70s 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Let's get things rolling tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, nj2va said: Almost time to track sustained 60s and 70s I want to track a drought. Once we are out of snow season I want an honest to goodness drought, days upon days of dry weather with zero clouds. When was the last time we had one of those. Bring on water restrictions! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 From Don S courtesy 33andrain Posted 1 hour ago Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.60°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.60°C for the week centered around February 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm/very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February. Conditions can be somewhat more favorable during the first half of March. Such ENSO conditions will likely persist into at least the first half of March with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. The warm SSTAs will likely remain basin-wide. The SOI was -15.51 today. That is the 13th consecutive day during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. The last time the SOI was at or below -10.00 for at least 13 consecutive days was February 13-March 3, 2016 when the SOI was at -10.00 or below for 20 consecutive days. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.840. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is +0.039. Should the AO average -0.646 for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average +0.001. Therefore, given the latest ensemble forecast, the AO will very likely finish with a positive average for winter 2018-19. On February 22, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.165 (RMM). The amplitude was slightly lower than the February 21-adjusted figure of 2.097. The MJO is now poised to head into Phase 1 as February concludes. Afterward, the MJO will advance toward and into Phase 2. The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States. A deepening storm will track across the Great Lakes region and then southern Canada over the next two days. As it does so, it will bring moderate to potentially heavy rainfall to parts of the East later tonight and tomorrow. In its wake, winds will likely gust past 50 mph both tomorrow night and Monday. Some areas could experience gusts in excess of 60 mph. Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York City area. That the MJO will likely enter March at a high amplitude is consistent with a colder start to the month. Afterward, pronounced warming could limit opportunities for snowfall. The odds of such warming would be particularly high should the PDO be negative, as has been the case in both December and January. Finally, looking back at the major oceanic indices for winter 2018-19, the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly is all but certain to fall into a neutral-warm/weak El Niño range of 0.01°C to +0.70°C (December-February average), the ENSO Region 1+2 will have finished with a warm anomaly making this a basin-wide event. The December-January PDO figures were negative. Since 1950, a single winter saw reasonably similar ENSO conditions paired with a negative PDO for December and January: winter 1979-80. This time around, the PDO was not as negative as it was back in 1979-80, or it is possible that the snow deficit across much of the East would have extended even farther north into New England, including Vermont and Maine. All said, the large-scale drivers of the pattern proved to be quite hostile for the development of a snowy meteorological winter for the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The December SOI+ tendency also proved to be the "barking dog" that warned of the collapse of the El Niño that had been in place going into 2019. For the past six weeks, neutral-warm ENSO conditions have prevailed and on a basin-wide, not central Pacific-centered basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, GATECH said: I want to track a drought. Once we are out of snow season I want an honest to goodness drought, days upon days of dry weather with zero clouds. When was the last time we had one of those. Bring on water restrictions! I’d be good with Sunny/60s-70s settling in on March 10 for 6 weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’d be good with Sunny/60s-70s settling in on March 10 for 6 weeks. Works for me, the last 3 years Spring has sucked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 20 minutes ago, frd said: neutral-warm ENSO conditions have prevailed and on a basin-wide, not central Pacific-centered basis Uh oh. Gonna make PSU break out a can of Modoki-definition whup a$$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 41 minutes ago, GATECH said: Works for me, the last 3 years Spring has sucked. I hope spring is cold w/40s.and rain until May. Hate spring and summer. Hate flowers and weeds. I’m probably in the minority. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 29 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I hope spring is cold w/40s.and rain until May. Hate spring and summer. Hate flowers and weeds. I’m probably in the minority. I hate the insects 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 hour ago, GATECH said: I want to track a drought. Once we are out of snow season I want an honest to goodness drought, days upon days of dry weather with zero clouds. When was the last time we had one of those. Bring on water restrictions! Not sure I want an all-out severe drought...but I'd definitely be up for some good draughts anytime!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Not sure I want an all-out severe drought...but I'd definitely be up for some good draughts anytime!! Can we start with like a week of dry weather? Seattle East is getting a little cumbersome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: Can we start with like a week of dry weather? Seattle East is getting a little cumbersome. Yeah, I hear you...a string of clear, pleasant days would be nice sometime this spring (after one more good snow event to close out the season!). While I don't care for weeks on end drought, I've about had my fill of cold, dank rain that seems to occur every other day. Of course, I had to make the (obvious!) pun on drought vs. draught in my comment above! ; ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 54 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I hope spring is cold w/40s.and rain until May. Hate spring and summer. Hate flowers and weeds. I’m probably in the minority. I actually don’t care what the temp is, I am just sick of the rain. My house, fence, driveway, trees, sidewalk, roof whatever are covered in green gunk, moss, algae, mold whatever. I would be happy with a late cold spell that kills off the bugs just as they are coming out...then give me the southeast ridge centered over SC from April to May that shunts everything north as we bake and dries everything out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 52 minutes ago, GATECH said: I actually don’t care what the temp is, I am just sick of the rain. My house, fence, driveway, trees, sidewalk, roof whatever are covered in green gunk, moss, algae, mold whatever. I would be happy with a late cold spell that kills off the bugs just as they are coming out...then give me the southeast ridge centered over SC from April to May that shunts everything north as we bake and dries everything out. N VA is certainly due a dry summer. The Summer of 2018 was extremely wet. I know. I was still up there. We were packing up the house in Dale City. It rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained. I had my work cut out for me trying to mow the lawn which was a South American Amazonian jungle. The japanese bushes needed to be trimmed every 4 days like clockwork. The lawn looked like it was early May and it was late July. There was so damned much water at the Rec Center that walking on the baseball fields resembled walking in the Florida Everglades. I have heard of weather changes but that was ridiculous. We got 50 inches from May 22 to Aug 23. I came back up there in late Sept to conclude some bank business. My friends informed me that Dale City had had ANOTHER 10 INCHES in September. You guys are STILL getting a lot of precip. You are due a good dry spell, but I have a feeling that the Summer of 2019 in Dale City will be Waterworld II. We dont have flooding here in Austin. We have a perpetual dry season with two parts of the year. High Summer, which is 105 degrees, and Not so hot Summer, which is what the rest of the northern Hemisphere calls Winter. Water is already GOLD down here. It will get much drier in Texas and much wetter in Virginia. The Mid Atlantic is going to get MUCH snowier in the winters from now on. 2019-2020 is going to be a doozy with a ton of snow regardless of ENSO. Bank on it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: I hope spring is cold w/40s.and rain until May. Hate spring and summer. Hate flowers and weeds. I’m probably in the minority. I HATE the warm seasons with a burning passion. Hate the flowers, overgrown everything, bugs, pollen, sunburns, sweating just from going outside. There is literally nothing I look forward to. I like the beach in warm weather, but I don't need our summers to have that. I could go to a Florida beach for vacation during the winter if I wanted to experience it. Basically, you could wipe out our Spring and Summer and I wouldn't lose one ounce of sleep over it. Don't get me wrong, I love a nice 55 degree sunny day! I just wish that was our max in the warm seasons. That would be beautiful! Does anyone know a place where Summer temps top out between 55-65 degrees on average? 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Steve I wholeheartedly agree with ya but where I live now, Summer rules 8 months out of the year. I also get severe Cedar allergies down here in mid December right in time for Christmas lol. All my relatives stayed elsewhere, I was sneezin and coughing for weeks on end. Its really fun livin down here in TX. Sorry to be such a Deb. At least I have a place to go, and the Mid Atlantic is still going to get demolished by heavy snow in March this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 16 minutes ago, Steve25 said: I HATE the warm seasons with a burning passion. Hate the flowers, overgrown everything, bugs, pollen, sunburns, sweating just from going outside. There is literally nothing I look forward to. I like the beach in warm weather, but I don't need our summers to have that. I could go to a Florida beach for vacation during the winter if I wanted to experience it. Basically, you could wipe out our Spring and Summer and I wouldn't lose one ounce of sleep over it. Don't get me wrong, I love a nice 55 degree sunny day! I just wish that was our max in the warm seasons. That would be beautiful! Does anyone know a place where Summer temps top out between 55-65 degrees on average? Kodiak, AK https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kodiak,_Alaska#Climate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 18 minutes ago, Steve25 said: I HATE the warm seasons with a burning passion. Hate the flowers, overgrown everything, bugs, pollen, sunburns, sweating just from going outside. There is literally nothing I look forward to. I like the beach in warm weather, but I don't need our summers to have that. I could go to a Florida beach for vacation during the winter if I wanted to experience it. Basically, you could wipe out our Spring and Summer and I wouldn't lose one ounce of sleep over it. Don't get me wrong, I love a nice 55 degree sunny day! I just wish that was our max in the warm seasons. That would be beautiful! Does anyone know a place where Summer temps top out between 55-65 degrees on average? Alaska eta: ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 By March, I am starting to crave heat. It gets especially bad as April drags into May, even more so when we have a cold and wet spring, which seems to be the norm around here now. Basically a gimped, even lamer second winter. Last summer sucked. It was dry and hot for like a single week. Seriously. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 52 minutes ago, Steve25 said: I HATE the warm seasons with a burning passion. Hate the flowers, overgrown everything, bugs, pollen, sunburns, sweating just from going outside. There is literally nothing I look forward to. I like the beach in warm weather, but I don't need our summers to have that. I could go to a Florida beach for vacation during the winter if I wanted to experience it. Basically, you could wipe out our Spring and Summer and I wouldn't lose one ounce of sleep over it. Don't get me wrong, I love a nice 55 degree sunny day! I just wish that was our max in the warm seasons. That would be beautiful! Does anyone know a place where Summer temps top out between 55-65 degrees on average? Scotland. Outer coasts of British Columbia. Victoria Island, NWT. Iceland. take your pick (and your bug spray) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stradivarious Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 49 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Alaska eta: ninja'd Alaska is beautiful when you have daylight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 hour ago, Jebman said: N VA is certainly due a dry summer. The Summer of 2018 was extremely wet. I know. I was still up there. We were packing up the house in Dale City. It rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained and rained. I had my work cut out for me trying to mow the lawn which was a South American Amazonian jungle. The japanese bushes needed to be trimmed every 4 days like clockwork. The lawn looked like it was early May and it was late July. There was so damned much water at the Rec Center that walking on the baseball fields resembled walking in the Florida Everglades. I have heard of weather changes but that was ridiculous. We got 50 inches from May 22 to Aug 23. I came back up there in late Sept to conclude some bank business. My friends informed me that Dale City had had ANOTHER 10 INCHES in September. You guys are STILL getting a lot of precip. You are due a good dry spell, but I have a feeling that the Summer of 2019 in Dale City will be Waterworld II. We dont have flooding here in Austin. We have a perpetual dry season with two parts of the year. High Summer, which is 105 degrees, and Not so hot Summer, which is what the rest of the northern Hemisphere calls Winter. Water is already GOLD down here. It will get much drier in Texas and much wetter in Virginia. The Mid Atlantic is going to get MUCH snowier in the winters from now on. 2019-2020 is going to be a doozy with a ton of snow regardless of ENSO. Bank on it. When you were packing up in Dale City....question....did it rain? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Wow euro is a trainwreck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 2 hours ago, Ji said: Wow euro is a trainwreck Pretty much knew what to expect in regards to the overnight runs when there was a page worth of posts in the disco and this was the only analysis I saw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 3 hours ago, Ji said: Wow euro is a trainwreck lol Weren't we just here at this time yesterday morning? TPV gets too far west on recent guidance, and the Euro/EPS/GEFS pretty much all have it phasing with that strong piece of energy moving in off the PAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Just now, showmethesnow said: Pretty much knew what to expect in regards to the overnight runs when there was a page worth of posts in the disco and this was the only analysis I saw. I looked at no 0z runs, and slept like a baby. Looking at the train wreck now. Got your coffee? Lets chase our upcoming Spring pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: lol Weren't we just here at this time yesterday morning? TPV gets too far west on recent guidance, and the Euro/EPS/GEFS pretty much all have a phase with that strong piece of energy moving in off the PAC. What do they say, 'Be careful what you wish for'? I wanted that pv dropping a little more west then previous runs but now the EPS is going hog wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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