Blizzard of 93 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The 80s into 90s might be extreme wrt individual storms but NYC has had plenty of other bad snowfall periods. And this past stretch since 2003 has been just ridiculous. 9/16 years above 40” long term avg says they should be 2/3. 11 30”+ years and that should be ~5. History suggests nyc will revert to that avg. From 1924-1933 was pretty bad without a single 40” season. From 1924 to 1947 there was only 1 40” year! From 1950-1955 not one 20” season! The 1970s only had one 30”+ winter. So maybe NYC never has another 10 years without a 8” storm but they will have a 10 year stretch without any or more than 1 40” winters...or 3+ consecutive years without 20”. History says that will happen. And the nyc people I know will go crazy. They act like they are the grandfather creators of snow and entitled to every storm now. I might too if I was on the heater they are just saying the fall will hurt when it happens. Thank you for this ! I think many people from DC to PA to NYC forget or don’t know the history of their climo average. Many are biased by the most recent 5 or 10 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The 80s into 90s might be extreme wrt individual storms but NYC has had plenty of other bad snowfall periods. And this past stretch since 2003 has been just ridiculous. 9/16 years above 40” long term avg says they should be 2/3. 11 30”+ years and that should be ~5. History suggests nyc will revert to that avg. From 1924-1933 was pretty bad without a single 40” season. From 1924 to 1947 there was only 1 40” year! From 1950-1955 not one 20” season! The 1970s only had one 30”+ winter. So maybe NYC never has another 10 years without a 8” storm but they will have a 10 year stretch without any or more than 1 40” winters...or 3+ consecutive years without 20”. History says that will happen. And the nyc people I know will go crazy. They act like they are the grandfather creators of snow and entitled to every storm now. I might too if I was on the heater they are just saying the fall will hurt when it happens. A time to reflect. That was a colder climate, yet less BIG snows ! Makes you wonder and think, good info psu! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 March 1-3 still interesting on gfs. Some snow at the start. Then it bombs up west. But...if the southern feature is a little more dominant and it phases into that instead of the northern stream that could trend better. It’s close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Ggem likes the second wave, nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Fv3 is an excruciating miss to the south. Crushes southern VA. Threats still very much there on guidance though. Back to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Fv3 is an excruciating miss to the south. Crushes southern VA. Threats still very much there on guidance though. Back to work. I like the look of that at this point. Less work for me than you to get this to hit. I like our chances. Old GFS hates it like a spinach cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Gfs bombs that miller b so much it suppressed everything behind it. That’s probably the fail option here fwiw. We have a 7 day window with 3 waves imo. The first though is a tricky setup with a stj and northern stream wave. The worst case scenario is if that bombs but does so in a way that fails for us but the suppressive flow behind such a bomb squashes the waves around March 4th and 6th behind it. Not saying that’s the most likely scenario. Way too early for me to tell. But that’s the most likely way we fail if we manage no snow from all 3 threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Old GFS hates it like a spinach cake. i always enjoy the comparisons used by you guys 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs bombs that miller b so much it suppressed everything behind it. That’s probably the fail option here fwiw. We have a 7 day window with 3 waves imo. The first though is a tricky setup with a stj and northern stream wave. The worst case scenario is if that bombs but does so in a way that fails for us but the suppressive flow behind such a bomb squashes the waves around March 4th and 6th behind it. Not saying that’s the most likely scenario. Way too early for me to tell. But that’s the most likely way we fail if we manage no snow from all 3 threats. Your fail scenarios tend to bear fruit. Not your fault being smart and informed. But November is right around the corner so we get to try again soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs bombs that miller b so much it suppressed everything behind it. That’s probably the fail option here fwiw. We have a 7 day window with 3 waves imo. The first though is a tricky setup with a stj and northern stream wave. The worst case scenario is if that bombs but does so in a way that fails for us but the suppressive flow behind such a bomb squashes the waves around March 4th and 6th behind it. Not saying that’s the most likely scenario. Way too early for me to tell. But that’s the most likely way we fail if we manage no snow from all 3 threats. o for 3, with the cup half full and the indices the way they look, plus pattern repitition, I say one of those will work for us , but not farther up North, beyond say Trenton, NJ, of course speculation, let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Gfs bombs that miller b so much it suppressed everything behind it. That’s probably the fail option here fwiw. We have a 7 day window with 3 waves imo. The first though is a tricky setup with a stj and northern stream wave. The worst case scenario is if that bombs but does so in a way that fails for us but the suppressive flow behind such a bomb squashes the waves around March 4th and 6th behind it. Not saying that’s the most likely scenario. Way too early for me to tell. But that’s the most likely way we fail if we manage no snow from all 3 threats. Of course all the hecs solutions showing up are March 1980 hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ji said: 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs bombs that miller b so much it suppressed everything behind it. That’s probably the fail option here fwiw. We have a 7 day window with 3 waves imo. The first though is a tricky setup with a stj and northern stream wave. The worst case scenario is if that bombs but does so in a way that fails for us but the suppressive flow behind such a bomb squashes the waves around March 4th and 6th behind it. Not saying that’s the most likely scenario. Way too early for me to tell. But that’s the most likely way we fail if we manage no snow from all 3 threats. Of course all the hecs solutions showing up are March 1980 hahah And that winter was a mediocre weak El Niño like this one, was it not? Lol So I wouldn't be too surprised if that happened! (Although again, we still managed to get 4-5 inches...whereas to that point in 1980 BWI had only had like 9 inches. So we'd still end up in a better position with totals, but...would still be a painful miss!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 The pv continues to trend southwest on ensembles around March 2-4. Right now it’s still not enough to do is good but it’s getting close to the point where if it trends and further south we might be looking at the chance for it to phase into a southern stream system and bomb something. It’s worty keeping an eye on. Unfortunately that look if the pv drops but doesn’t fully phase into anything could just leas to suppression of the stj waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Visuals look where the pv is on the gefs now vs 72 hours ago. 72 hours ago New run If that continues to trend south maybe it can phase with the stj vs squash it. But it’s increasing the chance of a total fail if it just slides by just to our north and doesn’t interact at all with the stj. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 32 minutes ago, Ji said: 45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs bombs that miller b so much it suppressed everything behind it. That’s probably the fail option here fwiw. We have a 7 day window with 3 waves imo. The first though is a tricky setup with a stj and northern stream wave. The worst case scenario is if that bombs but does so in a way that fails for us but the suppressive flow behind such a bomb squashes the waves around March 4th and 6th behind it. Not saying that’s the most likely scenario. Way too early for me to tell. But that’s the most likely way we fail if we manage no snow from all 3 threats. Of course all the hecs solutions showing up are March 1980 hahah 12z gfs still spits out 1958, 1960 and 1993. BUT the key is from day 8 those years the tpv in the upper Midwest interacted with a stj wave and dug in and phased. Most guidance right now lifts the tpv and just slides it by to our north without much interaction. That’s not good. But it would only take a minor adjustment to change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 No way to sugarcoat this though. The gefs has gone hard core cutter for that initial wave March 2. This vs 48 hours ago. digging the pv further west is creating an opening for that to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 No way to sugarcoat this though. The gefs has gone hard core cutter for that initial wave March 2. This vs 48 hours ago. digging the pv further west is creating an opening for that to cut. I thought first week of March would cutter free with mjo phase...epo not so far west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 I thought first week of March would cutter free with mjo phase...epo not so far west...Maybe March 4-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: digging the pv further west is creating an opening for that to cut. Is that not a consequence of the changes in the EPO but also the lack of a +PNA ? I guess we could also use a little bit of a -NAO blip. These changes are par for the course this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No way to sugarcoat this though. The gefs has gone hard core cutter for that initial wave March 2. This vs 48 hours ago. digging the pv further west is creating an opening for that to cut. This is exactly what I was discussing this morning in my reply to Ji. I was using the EPS and h5, but its the same "trend" with the tpv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 ECMWF Has a disturbance entering california at 168hrs. It may try to show the FV3 storm this run. After the day 7 cutter of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Euro, FV3 and CMC all have a low along the Carolina coast day 9-10. Very good agreement for models that looked different at shorter ranges. Not bad, plenty of cold, and 7 more days to get this thing up the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Euro, FV3 and CMC all have a low along the Carolina coast day 9-10. Very good agreement for models that looked different at shorter ranges. Not bad, plenty of cold, and 7 more days to get this thing up the coast. How far north does it get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Euro, FV3 and CMC all have a low along the Carolina coast day 9-10. Very good agreement for models that looked different at shorter ranges. Not bad, plenty of cold, and 7 more days to get this thing up the coast. We will see. This winter has only featured 3 storm tracks , close to the coast huggers, ie rain, surpressed tracks, and cutters. Still looking for the elusive Miller A BM storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: How far north does it get? Far enough for 9.5 days out. Even the JMA extrapolated looks like it would have the system. Only the GFS crushes it with the PV enough to make it untrackable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 euro has a good look day 9-10. At least its under day 10 now 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: euro has a good look day 9-10. At least its under day 10 now Did you see how close it is to an absolute monster.... look what could happen if that energy diving into the Midwest phases the tpv trending west and south means we are losing any chance at the March 1-2 storm. That trend will cause ridging in front of the TPV digging into the plains and cause a cutter. Could get some snow from a front runner but that’s probably mostly a cutter. But that opens the door for a big storm after it if something can dig into the trough and phase. Euro might be about to pull it off when it ends day 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 50 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This is exactly what I was discussing this morning in my reply to Ji. I was using the EPS and h5, but its the same "trend" with the tpv. Well it’s kind of a balance here. The trend towards the tpv diving further southwest will kill that March 1-2 threat. That will cause ridging ahead of it. But it will create a better threat around March 4-6 period if something phases. I think overall we have increased our chances of a big big storm but decreased our chances for just getting some snow. This is more a boom or bust setup. People can that however you want. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Did you see how close it is to an absolute monster.... look what could happen if that energy diving into the Midwest phases the tpv trending west and south means we are losing any chance at the March 1-2 storm. That trend will cause ridging in front of the TPV digging into the plains and cause a cutter. Could get some snow from a front runner but that’s probably mostly a cutter. But that opens the door for a big storm after it if something can dig into the trough and phase. Euro might be about to pull it off when it ends day 10. yes its close but this is really where blocking can help in terms of phasing potential.....so in reality we are really down to 1 chance. There is a little clipper action next week and some front end garbage for March 1 but our final chance is really that time period. as bob said..with this progressive flow...it will be hard to lock this down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Well it’s kind of a balance here. The trend towards the tpv diving further southwest will kill that March 1-2 threat. That will cause ridging ahead of it. But it will create a better threat around March 4-6 period if something phases. I think overall we have increased our chances of a big big storm but decreased our chances for just getting some snow. This is more a boom or bust setup. People can that however you want. lol...we really need revenge for the March 4-6,2001 bust.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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