The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

[kurtstack]

if o recall correctly commutegeddon was a march snowfall and my temps when living in arlington never went below freezing yet 7-8” of snow stuck to the roads...

[nj2va]

6 minutes ago, kurtstack said:

if o recall correctly commutegeddon was a march snowfall and my temps when living in arlington never went below freezing yet 7-8” of snow stuck to the roads...

Commutegeddon was January 2011

eta:  i can remember being on 395 as the rain changed to heavy sleet.  Walking home through Fairlington had thunder sleet (only time I’ve experienced that)...then went to heavy snow for a few hours. Got about 6”.  Amazing storm.

[SnowLuvrDude]

2 hours ago, Mdecoy said:

I must admit, having now had these storms in Feb and comparing them to last March; really not much different. Pretty much the same slushy meltathon.

I think the only drawback to March is with every passing day the odds of getting a storm go way down. You are working against the clock. Stuff that would have worked in Jan or Feb, doesn't work. Anyone remember snowquester?

 

...and then we had like two snowstorms the following year (2014). DCA even had a foot of snow that month...oddly enough, it was the snowiest month that winter even by a small margin.

Not sure what point you're trying to make here. Snow is snow; don't understand why it's such a big deal if it falls in March or in January. 

[Yeoman]

23 minutes ago, SnowLuvrDude said:

Not sure what point you're trying to make here. Snow is snow; don't understand why it's such a big deal if it falls in March or in January. 

I don't know about you but with regular snowstorms being something that is far from guaranteed in this area, I'd rather it snow during months that provide for the most staying power, and not during the tail end when it's gone before noon the next day. That said, I'll always take what I can get. 

[SnowLuvrDude]

47 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

I don't know about you but with regular snowstorms being something that is far from guaranteed in this area, I'd rather it snow during months that provide for the most staying power, and not during the tail end when it's gone before noon the next day. That said, I'll always take what I can get. 

Absolutely dude. I always prefer snow during our prime snow climo period. Just super annoying to see some people here dismiss it as a snow month... some calling whatever it falls during that month as a "slushy meltathon," useless snow, or what not. But to each their own! Not here to change other's opinions. For me, I'm satisfied enough with this winter; any snow from here on out is bonus for me. Just gonna have fun tracking the upcoming pattern and any threats while reading the good discussions here as always. If we don't score, so be it...Bring on spring!

....and allergy season 

 

ETA: Sorry if I derailed the thread in anyway. Just had to let it out as a lurker on this board.

[Ji]

Early March looks terrible. Whst happened?

[BristowWx]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Gfs has a quick hitter around day 6...... 1-3" stats padder

After that, cold and dry.  Where is the SE ridge when you need it?  On vacation in Bermuda. 

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

Early March looks terrible. Whst happened?

In general, the really good h5 pattern the models have been advertising has incrementally degraded. It's still not bad, and I expect the ops will tease more in upcoming runs with something other than cutters, but moving into March we want something more on the anomalous side to get a good winter storm. Look at the difference on the EPS for next Sat from 5 runs ago.

5 runs ago the  EPS looked like this-

 

Now it looks like this-

 

Good news is, the (useless) snowfall mean maps look a little better lol.

[CAPE]

There is still some potential for next weekend on the mean(cluster of lows of the NC coast), but the better chance is probably early the following week at this point. FWIW that is when the snow mean ticks up.

[aldie 22]

The two most common descriptions this year.

Degraded 

Step back

I'm ok if I never hear those again 

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

In general, the really good h5 pattern the models have been advertising has incrementally degraded. It's still not bad, and I expect the ops will tease more in upcoming runs with something other than cutters, but moving into March we want something more on the anomalous side to get a good winter storm. Look at the difference on the EPS for next Sat from 5 runs ago.

5 runs ago the  EPS looked like this-

 

Now it looks like this-

 

Good news is, the useless snowfall mean maps look a little better lol.

Actually don't think it is a bad look at all. Just different. EPO is overriding the TPV and forcing it south. Which is what we want. Trough positioning farther west is more favorable for the east whereas the other might have been arguing for a more OTS storm. Lower pressures are also closer to the 50/50 region. We do see weaker ridging in the west though it is still in a favorable location. 

[CAPE]

54 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Actually don't think it is a bad look at all. Just different. EPO is overriding the TPV and forcing it south. Which is what we want. Trough positioning farther west is more favorable for the east whereas the other might have been arguing for a more OTS storm. Lower pressures are also closer to the 50/50 region. We do see weaker ridging in the west though it is still in a favorable location. 

No its not bad, but in general the TPV is weaker on recent runs and doesn't rotate down as far in the east(anomalous cold focused further west). On the second image. there looks to be a stretching of the lower heights to the SW under that EPO ridge and a trough forms off the Pac NW. I want to see the NS energy more consolidated on the means and dig, dig, dig! south. This is March, not January lol.

[CAPE]

The "50-50 low" showing up on the mean is actually a series of lobes rotating up through that region, and they are trucking along with not a hint of blocking over the top. Without some sort of phase, it will probably come down to timing of those vortices as they rotate down, with some moisture from a ss wave. Seen that before right?

[CAPE]

52 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

The two most common descriptions this year.

Degraded 

Step back

I'm ok if I never hear those again 

Cold patterns tend to be overdone on the guidance in the long range. Given we will be in March, I want to see the ensemble guidance continue to advertise the more 'extreme' solutions, because we know what we end up with will fall well short of that. I don't "fear" cold and dry, or suppression, or OTS in March. If it happens, so be it. The most likely outcome is cold and wet, despite tracking all the "good looks".

[dailylurker]

53 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

The two most common descriptions this year.

Degraded 

Step back

I'm ok if I never hear those again 

You forgot 

6-10 of cold smoke

I just hit climo for the season 

Radar looks good

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

In general, the really good h5 pattern the models have been advertising has incrementally degraded. It's still not bad, and I expect the ops will tease more in upcoming runs with something other than cutters, but moving into March we want something more on the anomalous side to get a good winter storm. Look at the difference on the EPS for next Sat from 5 runs ago.

5 runs ago the  EPS looked like this-

 

Now it looks like this-

 

Good news is, the (useless) snowfall mean maps look a little better lol.

Looks to me that the massive EPO ridge is trying to extend across into the NAO region and link up with the WAR (once our SE Ridge btw). As psu noted before this is a step up at H5 not a step back.

[showmethesnow]

17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

No its not bad, but in general the TPV is weaker on recent runs and doesn't rotate down as far. On the second image. there looks to be a stretching to the SW under that EPO ridge and a trough forms off the Pac NW. I want to see the NS energy more consolidated on the means and dig, dig, dig! south. This is March, not January lol.

Looking over the progression/evolution of the last 5 runs for what is now roughly day 7-11 I actually think the latest 00Z was one of the best if not the best for our chances through that stretch. One problem I did have with the EPS initially was I thought they may be dropping the pv a little too far to the east setting up troughing which would probably favor any southern/coastals to swing wide right of our region through this period of time. But we have seen them gradually shift that initial pv drop westward where I think it is in a very favorable spot as it sets up a better progression afterwards. Though the previous runs had promise in their own right I thought the latest was actually the best of the group for the possible day 10 storm. Throw just a little ridging in the Atlantic into that setup and we are probably looking at a coastal that runs up through the bench mark. And any possible ridging will be highly dependent on what we see in regards to the earlier storm in strength and timing. I wouldn't throw away some better ridging in the west mind you. But I do think ridging in the Atlantic would be the far bigger player.

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

Early March looks terrible. Whst happened?

The 2018-2019 winter happened

 Everything goes to crap

[Stormfly]

If we can't get snow at least let there be wind!

[showmethesnow]

Here's just a simplified way of showing the improvements we have seen in 2 days of EPS runs for our possible day 10 storm.

Below we have the run two days ago. Notice where the battleground between above/below temp anomalies is occurring (red circle). This is where you will generally see the storm track setup.

 

Now after run over run improvement look at where the battle ground is now setting up on the latest run. 

 

And looking at the mslp's for this period of time they concur. We have seen continual strengthening of the signal for a storm as well as better placement of what looks to be a coastal track through this time.

 

 

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking over the progression/evolution of the last 5 runs for what is now roughly day 7-11 I actually think the latest 00Z was one of the best if not the best for our chances through that stretch. One problem I did have with the EPS initially was I thought they may be dropping the pv a little too far to the east setting up troughing which would probably favor any southern/coastals to swing wide right of our region through this period of time. But we have seen them gradually shift that initial pv drop westward where I think it is in a very favorable spot as it sets up a better progression afterwards. Though the previous runs had promise in their own right I thought the latest was actually the best of the group for the possible day 10 storm. Throw just a little ridging in the Atlantic into that setup and we are probably looking at a coastal that runs up through the bench mark. And any possible ridging will be highly dependent on what we see in regards to the earlier storm in strength and timing. I wouldn't throw away some better ridging in the west mind you. But I do think ridging in the Atlantic would be the far bigger player.

Lets see how things progress over the next few runs. As I said in my initial post, its not a bad look at all, but I preferred the look from a few days ago. For it to snow here, I need a juiced up wave that tracks underneath or a coastal storm that tracks slightly east of the BN. Both of those options were showing up on guidance, and still are to some extent. Unless we have a pretty anomalous set up, in March, coastal huggers are mostly rain here (my yard), inland tracks are rain. I have seen enough failed west track/retreating cold/CAD setups this winter lol. Bottom line is I am probably looking at/evaluating the guidance and what is being advertised a bit differently than some others here, especially you northern hinterland people.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Lets see how things progress over the next few runs. As I said in my initial post, its not a bad look at all, but I preferred the look from a few days ago. For it to snow here, I need a juiced up wave that tracks underneath or a coastal storm that tracks slightly east of the BN. Both of those options were showing up on guidance, and still are to some extent. Unless we have a pretty anomalous set up, in March, coastal huggers are mostly rain here (my yard), inland tracks are rain. I have seen enough failed west track/retreating cold/CAD setups this winter lol. Bottom line is I am probably looking at/evaluating the guidance and what is being advertised a bit differently than some others here, especially you northern hinterland people.

Who said I was talking about for your BY? I am in it for myself now.  

You could always chase up here at my house. Rates are good ($200/night) and I provide your meals (hope you like hot dogs). 

 

 

[frd]

7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Rates are good ($200/night) and I provide your meals (hope you like hot dogs). 

Ha ha ,  damn those are expensive doggies ......   what about sushi and chateaubriand,   or at the least a custom omelette in the morning before hiking through the snow drifts   

I am hungry now ! 

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Who said I was talking about for your BY? I am in it for myself now.  

You could always chase up here at my house. Rates are good ($200/night) and I provide your meals (hope you like hot dogs). 

 

 

Well yeah, that's the point lol. We all are.

Was looking at your previous post, which is all well and good, but what happened to the next Saturday deal? I used the EPS in my original post, but probably easier to see it on the GFS/GEFS- but go back 3 days when it had the nice coastal for the 2nd and compare it to the most recent runs. That was a nice set up on the means, and the op runs were spitting out a coastal snowstorm. H5 is not as favorable for that period now. It has degraded!!. Soo.. now we are on the the next D10 threat.  

[frd]

The same issues all winter, What looked good is not so good due to the Pac jet.  

What was a temp + PNA is now lost.  Models build it , but it gets blasted away and never truly forms. 

The high  pressure in the Pac not only interfers with the PNA,  but also causes the WAR to build.  I think the High is related to the warmer water East of Aussie . 

Not sure what to expect for the summer, but ocean models increase the SSTs of the Atlantic all summer long leading to the peak hurricane season. Granted there is the effect from whatever the former Nino does or does not do, however , it could be an active season.  

 

 

  and just for the heck although not as important is the AO 

 

 

 

 

[Scraff]

I still think we rock a big storm before we put this winter to bed, but has anyone started looking at what next winter might have in store for us? Yes yes. I know. JI probably canceled next winter too, but I was merely curious. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks to me that the massive EPO ridge is trying to extend across into the NAO region and link up with the WAR (once our SE Ridge btw). As psu noted before this is a step up at H5 not a step back.

I was replying to Ji's "what happened to early March?" post. I was illustrating what I think has changed in the guidance for the first threat window in early March. Not sure it's a "step up" when we had a look that was advertising coastal lows with snow, and now we have a different advertised h5 look with more cutters showing up for the same period.

eta- I think PSU was making more of a general observation, and you are sort of misrepresenting it in the context of my post.

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I was replying to Ji's "what happened to early March?" post. I was illustrating what I think has changed in the guidance for the first threat window in early March. Not sure it's a "step up" when we had a look that was advertising coastal lows with snow, and now we have a different advertised h5 look with more cutters showing up for the same period.

Depends on which you trust more for around the 2'nd. The GEFS or the EPS. The coastal idea is still very much in play on the EPS. Not so much on the GEFS. I know which model I am hugging.

[RevWarReenactor]

10 hours ago, SnowLuvrDude said:

 

...and then we had like two snowstorms the following year (2014). DCA even had a foot of snow that month...oddly enough, it was the snowiest month that winter even by a small margin.

Not sure what point you're trying to make here. Snow is snow; don't understand why it's such a big deal if it falls in March or in January. 

It seems you missed the point of my post. I was saying that March snow is pretty much the same but that the chances of it happening go way down with every passing day.

As predicted, it is looking like the early March opportunity is quickly fading. Just like all the other 10-15 day opportunities this year. So at this point, I'd say this thread is tracking spring.

Despite a bad look all year, its actually somehow been a decent winter.

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

It seems you missed the point of my post. I was saying that March snow is pretty much the same but that the chances of it happening go way down with every passing day.

As predicted, it is looking like the early March opportunity is quickly fading. Just like all the other 10-15 day opportunities this year. So at this point, I'd say this thread is tracking spring.

Despite a bad look all year, its actually somehow been a decent winter.

Though our unicorn patterns failed to materialize we did have some periods of decent looks throughout the winter.