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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
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52 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

The northern zones maybe? DCA did not receive close to that amount. It's more or less impossible for us to build lasting snowpack even now.

 

34 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Unfortunately he's not trolling he really believes the stuff he's spewing. 

His sun angle is stronger than the northern zones. ;)

 

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WP has a good article on snowfall this year so far.  No one from DC, South or West should objectively be complaining.  We are at climo or better.  It would be great to get one more before it’s over....It is nice to gave something to watch inside 2 weeks at the 3rd week of February.  Everyone should realize that what makes it so fun to track in the Middle Atlantic is that we are almost always on the edge: rain vs snow/ light vs heavy rates etc.  step back and stay at 30,000 feet until the middle of next week....then start tearing apart each operational run....I know much easier said then done.

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One of my favorite memories of March was 93.  We had several inches of snow with the thickest layer of sleet on top that I had ever seen.  I was in my my 20s skating around the backyard in the late afternoon.  It had been very mild 60 or 70 the day before.  It can stick in March or anytime of year if it is coming down hard enough.

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40 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

Fair enough. You have the stats, I don't. I'll concede that. Maybe I'm a micro climate, but I've witnessed stickage issues mid day even with February sun. Naturally I'm skeptical due to my personal experience on the blacktops 'round here IMBY.

Rates matter. Are you sure you aren't using hours of light snow as an example. It needs to be coming down at a decent clip to stick well to pavement in March. That much is probably true. 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Rates matter. Are you sure you aren't using hours of light snow as an example. It needs to be coming down at a decent clip to stick well to pavement in March. That much is probably true. 

Seems to be true in every month.  Depending on if we are coming off warm spell, cold spell, temps at game time.  I guess it just depends so blanket statements are difficult to quantify.  

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1 hour ago, Subtropics said:

Fair enough. You have the stats, I don't. I'll concede that. Maybe I'm a micro climate, but I've witnessed stickage issues mid day even with February sun. Naturally I'm skeptical due to my personal experience on the blacktops 'round here IMBY.

I couldn't care less if the roads are wet or snow covered. Not a schoolboy looking for early dismissal. If there is a foot of snow on all other surfaces and the roads are just wet, that's F'ing perfect. Well it would be without all the damn road salt.

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Dunno why we have to go through the "sun angle" stuff every year about this time, and this is my 20th+ here dating back to Eastern and before.  It's the same ole thing, year after year.  Snow can stick any time of the year if the rates are sufficient.  To say anything is  impossible is sheer lunacy and about as worthy of cognitive reasoning as the current resurgence of the flat earth theory.  

The records prove it is indeed possible to have appreciable snow in March and even into April and with some reasonable periodic.  And as posted a bit ago...  Who cares if it comes and is gone in 2 days?  While we'd love it to stick around whenever possible, any of us would give our right arm to get shellacked, even if it's gone a couple days or even hours later.  It's the excitement of the chase, the glory of the event, and worship of the most stark onslaught Mother Nature can muster that entices us to go "all in".  If/when we get sn-, sn, or sn+, whatever the time of year, even in March or April, just enjoy it and remember it until the next one.  

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7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It would be a huge difference. Sun angle at my house on Jan 10 is about 29 degrees. On March 10 it’s about 46 degrees. That’s a lot and I suspect it’s not a linear relationship.

 

Absolutely is not linear. Still can snow in March.

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I could see how sun angle might impact how quickly snow accumulates if rates are light and surface temps are marginal since (and I’m just hypothesizing) it may impact the rate of melting, but not sure it would matter much if it’s coming down steady/moderate and surface temps are below freezing.  Of course, if the sun angle results in a wetter snow during its journey, then that’s a variable to take into account as well.  While I think the level of impact is debatable especially in March, I don’t think I agree that it doesn’t matter.  We’re talking about frozen water here.

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17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Absolutely is not linear. Still can snow in March.

I agree with RDM this is one of the dumbest things we go through every year. And no one is saying sun angle doesn’t matter at all. But there are those that blow it way out of proportion. The biggest effect of the sun angle is it’s WARMER lol. And if it’s warmer that makes snow less and less likely. But if it’s below freezing and snowing hard enough it “could” stick in July. Colorado proves that. They are at the same latitude. They have the same sun angle. The only difference is the air is thinner so it’s easier to get cold that time of year.  But if it’s cloudy and snowing hard the sun is mostly blocked lol. It needs to be cold enough that’s the bigger problem.  33-34 wont work like it sometimes can in January and it has to snow hard, 8 hours of very light snow that would have been 1.5” in January won’t work either.   But this argument it CANT stick in March during the day is beyond stupid and we get it every year. 

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1 hour ago, PCT_ATC said:

Well we are almost at climo.. but.. I agree.. it has been a let down with all the fall predictions of everyone bathing in snow up to their eyeballs!

 

I'm about to just stop listening to cold and snowy forecasts for anything other than a moderate/strong modoki...lol As we have seen this winter...it's better to just lean on history and be done with it! If history says weak modokis are median/meh snowfall, I'm gonna go with that and be pleasantly surprised if it does more. But let's hope we can get mod modoki next...because then our chances oughta be pretty good! :D (and we'll still have low solar, correct?)

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I must admit, having now had these storms in Feb and comparing them to last March; really not much different. Pretty much the same slushy meltathon.

I think the only drawback to March is with every passing day the odds of getting a storm go way down. You are working against the clock. Stuff that would have worked in Jan or Feb, doesn't work. Anyone remember snowquester?

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