Wonderdog Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: How much fun would that be...a lot A massive paste job that would put a hurtin for certain on the toy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 32 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: A massive paste job that would put a hurtin for certain on the toy. Yeah but think of the stories we would tell...just when we thought we were out winter pulls us back in..or is it Lucy or Ron Paul..the aleet heard round the world. I am getting way to into this idea. Rain and 43 is my official early call on day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 6 hours ago, osfan24 said: Fringed! We toss! Not far off from your avatar image, lol. Analog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 3 hours ago, Amped said: SNowgolfbro was right. Joe Bastardi is definitely the FV3 GFS. Lol but if we aren’t going to get 70s and sunshine then I’m rooting for the JB3 GFS to score a coup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Yeah but think of the stories we would tell...just when we thought we were out winter pulls us back in..or is it Lucy or Ron Paul..the aleet heard round the world. I am getting way to into this idea. Rain and 43 is my official early call on day 8 You reversed your numbers, didn't you? I am sure you meant rain and 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Gfs suppression next week. Too cold! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: Gfs suppression next week. Too cold! Maybe instead of Nov 16 it's going to be Dec 9 for the other bookend..... OTOH, can you IMAGINE the trolling PSU would dish out to DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Probably doesn't belong here but 6Z GFS shows substantial rain in the WDC area on Thursday. Now where is that cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Euro suppression depression for next week too? Maybe NC can score while I smoke cirrus. Wait. That’s not realistic. That can never happen in this day and age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 I know we don’t often say this but the GFS is right where we want it for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 A perfect upper low pass bomb system with no cold followed by a storm suppressed south by an arctic high the last week of March would be the perfect way for THIS winter to end. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: A perfect upper low pass bomb system with no cold followed by a storm suppressed south by an arctic high the last week of March would be the perfect way for THIS winter to end. Lol. I'm actually starting to think we really have a shot at next week. I know I'm crazy haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 42 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: What a nice look by the EPS for next week . Good Mslp local along with a ample banana high structure. I'm betting we see some wicked op solutions the next few days . FV3 at 6z with the coastal Carolina and DelMarVa paste bomb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 That'd be a fitting end to winter. North Carolina getting more snow in late March than I saw all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Who says you need a perfect pattern in late March to see significant snow in the Mid Atlantic? -PNA / +NAO / +AO / WAR / no 50-50 I'm not convinced this setup would work out but apparently several models believe it is workable: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 6 hours ago, MountainGeek said: Maybe instead of Nov 16 it's going to be Dec 9 for the other bookend..... OTOH, can you IMAGINE the trolling PSU would dish out to DT? Just because it’s snowing doesn’t mean winters not over you fargin bastage! -DT 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Who says you need a perfect pattern in late March to see significant snow in the Mid Atlantic? -PNA / +NAO / +AO / WAR / no 50-50 I'm not convinced this setup would work out but apparently several models believe it is workable: We’re still a snow town! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Who says you need a perfect pattern in late March to see significant snow in the Mid Atlantic? -PNA / +NAO / +AO / WAR / no 50-50 I'm not convinced this setup would work out but apparently several models believe it is workable: First of all there is a nice PNA ridge the few days leading into that threat. The fact that the PNA shifts too far east is why the storm is a miss to our southeast on most guidance right now. But there is some truth that in March you need less of the pattern drivers to be aligned to luck your way into an amplified system tracking south of us. Problem is (as we are about to see this week) the problem is often having enough cold this late. But between the short wavelengths, the propensity for cutoff lows, and the increased baroclinicity this time of year.... we don't need as many things to line up perfect to get a storm. But that doesn't mean it will be snow, usually it just helps us get a 40 degree rainstorm. For a long time by March 10th on it was so warm most years that we didn't even notice the track of systems as there was absolutely no chance at all of frozen anywhere near us. Lately we have had a colder regime in March and so some are paying more attention. The number one thing to get snow the second half of March is cold. Seems we have found numerous ways to snow late season when there was enough cold around to get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 2 hours ago, Chris78 said: Lol. I'm actually starting to think we really have a shot at next week. I know I'm crazy haha. I was kidding...kinda. There is potential. Plenty of hits in the EPS. BUT... the people assuming it won't be suppressed just because its so late in the season are kidding themselves. A storm can be suppressed any time of year....we just don't care in June because its rain no matter what the track is. But its not "cold" that suppresses a storm its the upper level flow. Now those 2 are often associated with one another but its not a 1;1 thing. We saw that threat in April get suppressed last year... did people forget that already? So I am not saying this will get squashed south... its way too early to say that, look what happened this week and how that looked a few days ago...but I am also not assuming it will trend north just because of the time of year...and the trend this year has been to mostly tease with big setups and then provide mediocre results. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: First of all there is a nice PNA ridge the few days leading into that threat. The fact that the PNA shifts too far east is why the storm is a miss to our southeast on most guidance right now. But there is some truth that in March you need less of the pattern drivers to be aligned to luck your way into an amplified system tracking south of us. Problem is (as we are about to see this week) the problem is often having enough cold this late. But between the short wavelengths, the propensity for cutoff lows, and the increased baroclinicity this time of year.... we don't need as many things to line up perfect to get a storm. But that doesn't mean it will be snow, usually it just helps us get a 40 degree rainstorm. For a long time by March 10th on it was so warm most years that we didn't even notice the track of systems as there was absolutely no chance at all of frozen anywhere near us. Lately we have had a colder regime in March and so some are paying more attention. The number one thing to get snow the second half of March is cold. Seems we have found numerous ways to snow late season when there was enough cold around to get it done. I guess that EPO ridge might be our helper to get the cold then. If that's what we need as one of the key ingredients that can be workable as we've seen numerous times in recent years the EPO ridging work to supply cold air source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 The fact we are still tracking and it's the 2nd half of March is astonishing. The fact we seem to be repeating this March potential thing for several consecutive years is mind boggling to me. I remember when it was rare to even have anything to track this late. Now it seems commonplace tho I assume this is just some sort of decadal anomaly that we are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 3 hours ago, losetoa6 said: What a nice look by the EPS for next week . Good Mslp local along with a ample banana high structure. I'm betting we see some wicked op solutions the next few days . Every time I want to throw in the towel. That almost looks like January 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Every time I want to throw in the towel. That almost looks like January 2016. until you zoom out and see the raging positive NAO 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 spring 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, mappy said: spring Ahhh......So pretty...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 No one in N MD or along the M/D line liked the 00z CMC? Snow map was super lulz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: No one in N MD or along the M/D line liked the 00z CMC? Snow map was super lulz It’s the cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s the cmc. CMC = FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 12z GFS has snow for all of us early next week SLP misses south of us on Tuesday... NC/SE VA crushed 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 18z Monday has us close to 70....Snow and in the 20's by 6z. Ill take the under. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now