jaydreb Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The period around the 26-28 is probably more likely for a fluke snow. Still highly unlikely but a lot of guidance is keeping a cutoff system under us and some has enough NS interaction to perhaps be cold enough if everything went perfect. Only 10 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 57 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: The FV3 is garbage. The only reason why I am mildly interested in this threat is because it is being hinted at a bit by the other models/ensembles. I will give this another 36 hours before I put this threat to rest or buy into it. Why do folks even put 5 % faith in that model, you do better playing power ball with odds. This model is so messed up it is delayed again. It is sad the state of American modeling. But, to be fair all, models fall out sometimes, verification-wise, but then rebound. I don't even read about the FV3 and snowfall when I see it, because I know it will never verify. The CMC is more likely to be correct than the FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 44 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Only 10 days away! The fact it’s 10 days away is why it’s the “better” chance. Neither is likely to cause snow. But that setup being further away leaves more room for chaos so more chance something truly anomalous happens that guidance is missing. There are some hints on individual ensemble members. Like this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Pretty major warm period coming up following the +NAO. The GFS has a lot of storms moving across the country in a general ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 19 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Pretty major warm period coming up following the +NAO. The GFS has a lot of storms moving across the country in a general ridge. And you post this why? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 3 hours ago, Fozz said: Problem is, the FV3 is alone in showing this. Can’t get too excited unless better models get on board. FV3 did this once before in December. It is not handling the cutoff low over the Dakotas the same as other models. The 12z run was a signifigant cave in at 48hrs, even though it still shows a storm, it's a run or 2 away from losing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 FV3, there's never been so large of a fail in one season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The period around the 26-28 is probably more likely for a fluke snow. Still highly unlikely but a lot of guidance is keeping a cutoff system under us and some has enough NS interaction to perhaps be cold enough if everything went perfect. 12% of 12 UT EPS members give our area > 3" of snow/sleet from this hypothetical system; an increase from the 8% at 00 UT. If this "trend" continues for a few more cycles perhaps showmethesnow will re-up his weathermodels subscription! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: FV3, there's never been so large of a fail in one season. Certainly the performance of the FV3 has been the biggest disappointment this past winter season. It is still scheduled to come on-line at the end of this month? If yes, can they fix their wintry precipitation algorithm by next December? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Certainly the performance of the FV3 has been the biggest disappointment this past winter season. It is still scheduled to come on-line at the end of this month? If yes, can they fix their wintry precipitation algorithm by next December? It’s delayed until August now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Certainly the performance of the FV3 has been the biggest disappointment this past winter season. It is still scheduled to come on-line at the end of this month? If yes, can they fix their wintry precipitation algorithm by next December? Seems like most GFS upgrades have been this way. There is a minuscule increase in performance that is hyped as an Atari vs Xbox upgrade. The FV3 is big a downgrade for predicting snowfall, it's worse than the NAM 48hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Looks like at worst the late week deal is a rainstorm for extreme eastern/NE portions of the region. Even that is a stretch at this point. It will be quite chilly and dry after that storm misses though. ( I am totally good with that). Sorry y'all, winter is over. Tomorrow morning probably holds more promise of a few localized places seeing a bit of snow than the late week deal. If I didn't know any better, I might think my yard is a decent location for a coating to a half inch. But I do know better. This winter is a turd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 November can’t get here soon enough. I want a do over. Actually Injust want to track winter storms. It all I live for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: November can’t get here soon enough. I want a do over. Actually Injust want to track winter storms. It all I live for. Find something else to live for. Tracking winter storms is extremely low yield around here. Not good to only live for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: November can’t get here soon enough. I want a do over. Actually Injust want to track winter storms. It all I live for. Try and appreciate each season. Each is unique in its own way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Lol. There actually a decent amount of eps members that get snow into our area around the 26th/27th. Nothing crazy but for March 26th that's pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Lol. There actually a decent amount of eps members that get snow into our area around the 26th/27th. Nothing crazy but for March 26th that's pretty impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looks like at worst the late week deal is a rainstorm for extreme eastern/NE portions of the region. Even that is a stretch at this point. It will be quite chilly and dry after that storm misses though. ( I am totally good with that). Sorry y'all, winter is over. Tomorrow morning probably holds more promise of a few localized places seeing a bit of snow than the late week deal. If I didn't know any better, I might think my yard is a decent location for a coating to a half inch. But I do know better. This winter is a turd. The March 27ish period actually has some possibility. It’s not likely. Maybe a 1/10 chance we see any frozen. But it’s not completely over unless you mean from a likely standpoint. I highly doubt we see anymore frozen but it’s not no chance yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 18z fv3 looks even better at 500 for Thursday(h84-90) here. Huge discrepancy compared to other models at such a short lead time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 If the FV3 winds up being right it will be the dumbest good thing to happen to it all winter for all the wrong reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The March 27ish period actually has some possibility. It’s not likely. Maybe a 1/10 chance we see any frozen. But it’s not completely over unless you mean from a likely standpoint. I highly doubt we see anymore frozen but it’s not no chance yet. lol. possibility of warm temputers. and or chilly , not cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 2 hours ago, Amped said: FV3 did this once before in December. It is not handling the cutoff low over the Dakotas the same as other models. The 12z run was a signifigant cave in at 48hrs, even though it still shows a storm, it's a run or 2 away from losing it. Now the FV3 seems to be building heights ahead over new england too fast causing the northern stream to stall over the lakes. This allows for the southern stream to get ahead of it and bomb. Seems unlikely given that no other model is showing this. UKMET and ICON have a low much further out to sea. GFS CMC and Euro have nothing, so this solution still seems like an error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Yeah, we almost have a connect here on the 12z Euro. If the NAO was negative, but that's not possible to happen so.. it's probably a severe threat like the GFS has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 This has been a trademark of the FV3 all winter, show a storm when the other models don't. The FV3 gave me about 5 feet of digital snow this winter. With that said I will ride this out for another 30 hours before putting it to rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: This has been a trademark of the FV3 all winter, show a storm when the other models don't. The FV3 gave me about 5 feet of digital snow this winter. With that said I will ride this out for another 30 hours before putting it to rest. Got really close to something good for our region this run. Icon improved as well but not as close. I love coastal storms regardless of precip type 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: This winter is a turd. Nice to see your are so kind to Old Man Winter. I can think of a few choice words for this winter that are not very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 3 hours ago, BristowWx said: November can’t get here soon enough. I want a do over. Actually Injust want to track winter storms. It all I live for. Careful what you wish for! (remember the movie Click?) Imagine us actually getting decent tropical, Derecho redux... There are some things using that skip button would be good for. Holidays and traffic come to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Just letting you know.. next Winter isn't going to do it without the PDO, and the PDO is not going to move positive in the Spring or Summer or Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 obviously there is a fv3 sales team failing in the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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