The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

[Wonderdog]

FV3 cranks up the storm just off the coast next Thursday. Still evolving. 

[Rtd208]

Just now, Wonderdog said:

FV3 cranks up the storm just off the coast next Thursday. Still evolving. 

Stay safe.

[Rvarookie]

Damn I’ve been begging for warm and dry, but this dude on a different level. It may be just easier to just stay off the board during winter and seek help bro instead of expecting everyone to accommodate your needs.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

If we had a -NAO, this could have been a historic snowstorm.. look at this thing, +3-4 SD's. 

[winterymix]

20 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok fine...the weather affects SAD, if my trolling affects your mood THAT is something else! 

some 

Furthermore I was trolling a troll for comedic affect.  And you got the joke and still decided to make a big deal out if it.   Even he didn’t throw a fit over it. 

The weather affects some people in a individual manner.   Some people get migraines when the sun flickers through barren tree limbs during winter.  Some get migraines from movement of frontal systems and energetic pressure changes.  Some are apprehensive about being in any car when the roads are the least bit slippery.  Some suffer from excess UV exposure.  Some of scared of being snowed in their homes during a power failure.  Some have a surging blood pressure during thunder and lightning.  Others have mentioned allergy-related health challenges.

I doubt this forum has evil people that wish that their favorite weather will torment another person.  Still, this is the appropriate forum forum people to discuss the types of weather that they find fascinating.

There are probably forums that provide support and empathy for those that crave living in an entirely non-threatening safe space.

[showmethesnow]

Except for the GFS I thought the other models (Euro, CMC, ICON, FV3) showed some half decent potential for next Friday with just some adjustments here or there. They all are handling the trough and energy driving down somewhat differently from each other so it is obvious that there are still question marks on how this will evolve. Think what it will ultimately come down to is whether we see some decent height rises in front of the dropping trough to get some turning of the trough axis as the flow slows. To get an idea what I am talking about just look at the FV3

[Rtd208]

20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Except for the GFS I thought the other models (Euro, CMC, ICON, FV3) showed some half decent potential for next Friday with just some adjustments here or there. They all are handling the trough and energy driving down somewhat differently from each other so it is obvious that there are still question marks on how this will evolve. Think what it will ultimately come down to is whether we see some decent height rises in front of the dropping trough to get some turning of the trough axis as the flow slows. To get an idea what I am talking about just look at the FV3

It would be something if the models start showing some of the strong solutions again from days ago because now we are talking day 5/6 not day 10/12.

[psuhoffman]

31 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Except for the GFS I thought the other models (Euro, CMC, ICON, FV3) showed some half decent potential for next Friday with just some adjustments here or there. They all are handling the trough and energy driving down somewhat differently from each other so it is obvious that there are still question marks on how this will evolve. Think what it will ultimately come down to is whether we see some decent height rises in front of the dropping trough to get some turning of the trough axis as the flow slows. To get an idea what I am talking about just look at the FV3

 

8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

It would be something if the models start showing some of the strong solutions again from days ago because now we are talking day 5/6 not day 10/12.

Well as losetoa pointed out even though we haven’t had purty op runs to drool over the h5 setup has remained at least somewhat close on some runs. Enough to keep an eye casually on it. It’s a long long shot but not totally dead.

I’m just not talking about it much because a few people are annoying the crap out of me every time anyone tries to discuss winter potential lately. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

 

Well as losetoa pointed out even though we haven’t had purty op runs to drool over the h5 setup has remained at least somewhat close on some runs. Enough to keep an eye casually on it. It’s a long long shot but not totally dead.

I’m just not talking about it much because a few people are annoying the crap out of me every time anyone tries to discuss winter potential lately. 

No one is annoyed up in the Central PA thread. Please let us know your thoughts. Some of us still enjoy tracking every last snow potential.

[09-10 analogy]

On 3/15/2019 at 3:02 PM, wkd said:

You could try climbing Mt. Jefferson and then take the Appalachian trail over to Mt. Washington. Easier than the climb up Mt. Washington.

Thanks for the tip

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

No one is annoyed up in the Central PA thread. Please let us know your thoughts. Some of us still enjoy tracking every last snow potential.

I generally agree with showme. One issue is the flow is really progressive over the top. One way to get something would be for a more energetic system out of the Midwest to do it by itself.   It wouldnt be a coastal climber and only effect the latitude it exited at. But the coastal is running interference on even that. 

Absent that we would need some kind of phasing. Right now the northern stream is acting to suppress. But if something were to dive in further west and heights could rise some in front...it’s unlikely but not impossible. This time of year I would hesitate to just ignore such an energetic upper level system coming through. But there are problems preventing this from being a good setup att. 

[Rtd208]

 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

No one is annoyed up in the Central PA thread. Please let us know your thoughts. Some of us still enjoy tracking every last snow potential.

Think I will head over to the PA thread though. 

[winterymix]

42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Think I will head over to the PA thread though. 

But...I live 12 to 14 miles from you and find your posts to be interesting, some of the best in the sub forum.   Two interesting ideas about late season snows;

a.  very warm days can follow soon after late-winter/early-spring snow.   I remember,   waaay back in the 60s walking to elementary school through about 4 to 5 inches of slushy snow and then on the way home from school, it was 77 deg. F.

b.  for those with bare patches of the lawn, spreading grass seed before a late season snow can yield a high germination rate.

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Well... on cue .........18z Fv3 actually has better hieght rises out ahead along with a bit better phasing as well .... end result is definitely an overall better trough axis. Not far at all from a decent coastal hit rain or snow. 

31 mb drop in 24 hours. Can you say bombogenisis?  The FV3 isn't very far from being something really good for our region. 

[Wonderdog]

36 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

31 mb drop in 24 hours. Can you say bombogenisis?  The FV3 isn't very far from being something really good for our region. 

And it's still evolving. 

[frd]

35 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

 

Uh ....  Oh ..now you've said the B ...word lol. Hearing that word never gets old man . Yep. The door is still cracked open and over 100 hours out ..still time for needed changes 

Thank god he did not say the other word to add to it ..............Bomb cyclone  

[frd]

Not sure where this  belongs but a good post about the upcoming Spring in the Arctic and the ice melt and consequences there of, and what we will be dealing with over the summer months after next winter because of it. Highly speculative of course. 

But to divert for just a moment, I have to say it is very sad the things that are happening to wild life in the Arctic. Last night I watched on Netflix program/movie about the Far North and how various animals, whales, birds move up to the Arctic after the melt and it was indeed sad to see the polar bear struggle to locate ice and even move around. They risk drowning and starving as well due to the lack of ice and inability to hunt for seals because of the lack of ice. 

Moving on thereis already talk about the fragile ice cover up there now andhow the upcoming warmer season will effect the ice cover. 

There is speculation it could effect the hadley cell, maybe move sub tropical highs further North in time. I am talking short term not climate change here. But here is that post.  

<<<<<<

Posted March 10

 

Getting close to the true melting season now (after s false start a week ago), and the time to review the state of affairs with a eye to what vulnerabilities are greater or less compared to recent years.

 

I need to allocate some time to look in detail but my initial impressions are a stronger ice situation on the Atlantic side but mostly in areas that should melt out regardless, and weaker ice on the Asian and Pacific sides - even compared to 2018 for the latter which is really saying something; there was some crazy opening of waters last week before some recovery but with the ice of course being very thin and fragile now.

 

 

Given the weak Asian side ice, it’s concerning to see snow cover extent running some 1 SD below normal and with modelling suggesting little in the way of cold spells to try and turn things around within the next few weeks. Could be an exceptionally or even record early spring warmup for quite a lot of the high altitudes of Asia unless the modelling is wide of the mark.

 

>>>>>>>

 

A very insightful and at times somewhat shocking video.

 

What hits me hardest (edging out the part about what happens after the latent heat of fusion stops being required) is the sea ice thickness plot for 8th March shown at 8:58. Compared with last year's already record low mid-March thickness, the ice away from the Canadian coasts is another 0.5 to 2.0 m thinner this year - placing a lot of it in the sub-2 m thickness category which typically fails to survive even a modest melting season.

 

Last year with the widely 1.5 to 3.0 m thick ice, I was thinking it could be a bad one if the weather's either very warm and clear or very stormy - in the end it was neither so we lucked out.

 

This year, I believe it'll take an unusually cloudy and calm summer to save the sub-2 m ice. Not a common combination for obvious reasons. So it seems to me that there's a high probability of going below the 2012 minimum this year - but one can't be too presumptuous given all the complex feedback mechanisms in place so I'll reserve any firm judgements until we've seen what the next few months bring.

 

If and when we see a 'blue ocean' event with 1 mn or less square km of sea ice at minimum, we'll enter a period of fascinating but, sadly, most likely very disruptive climatic responses. Even where we're at currently, I'm seeing evidence that the Hadley Cell has strengthened with a greater incidence of unusually strong and persistent ridges at the mid-latitudes in recent years. Such as the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge that brought extreme drought to California, and the multiple runs of 2-3 weeks of HP-dominated weather across the UK during the past year or so (including the one that culminated in the record-high Feb temps for large swathes of the UK & Europe), of which there appears to be yet another in the works (starting on Monday; duration not yet certain but the trend is longer and longer!).

 

Seasons featuring a Blue Ocean event may see the Hadley Cell strengthen even further, bringing even more resilient ridges  to the mid-latitudes. There could (I must stress the speculation here; this is all based on theoretical modelling) even be a persistent poleward shift of the subtropical high pressure belt, which would shift the climate zones north with it; e.g. Mediterranean turns more like desert, and temperate (such as the UK) turns more like Mediterranean. I'm not sure how long this would take though; could be within one decade or some half a dozen. I know that in the late 90s there was a lot of buzz in the UK over climate change bringing a trend toward Mediterranean-style summers by the late 21st Century but I feel that the rates of change (due to overlooked feedbacks) were being seriously underestimated back then.

 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> END

 

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[showmethesnow]

FV3 is really trying on the 00z. We see a 33mb drop in 24 hours and it is now slamming the Jersey shores up into eastern Mass with 1-2 feet of snow (10:1 snowfall maps). The immediate shore line just north of Jersey would probably see sustained winds of 30-40 mph with gusts exceeding 55 mph even reaching somewhat inland. This is impressive considering we are not seeing High pressure in place to the north and west of the storm to set up a tight gradient. Thinking @WxWatcher007would be happy with this result, as he wouldn't have to go to the snow but instead the snow would come to him.

[showmethesnow]

The GFS made a move from NO to possibly MAYBE as we see the trough dropping farther west allowing for some height rises in the east as the trough approaches. CMC has also seen improvements over previous runs where we are seeing better height rises in the east with a better turning of the trough axis. ICON is more progressive with the trough then previous runs but even that saw some improvements within the trough itself where just a slower movement eastward could mean a world of difference.

Which brings us to the Euro. To put it bluntly, Dr NO crapped the bed. It loses the shortwave/energy that is the driving force for digging the trough into the south. So what we have is a weak, flat trough that there is nothing to key on. So there is no storm whatsoever. But how it loses that shortwave may be playing into one of the Euro's weaknesses/biases. What we are seeing is that when that shortwave drops down through the Plains it is now being cutoff and left behind from the broad trough where it then retrogrades it somewhat towards the SW. This MAY be playing into its habit of mishandling energy in the southwest though this is somewhat North and East of where I expect to see that occur. Considering all the guidance I see at this time argues against this and knowing one of the Euro's bias' I would tend to believe that the odds favor the Euro may be out to lunch here. 

Though the odds are long I still believe that there is a possibility here. But the GEFS/EPS ask me what I am smoking as they see virtually no potential at this time. And if I were a betting man I know where I would place my money.

And with that, weatherbell just cut off my service. So I guess any further tracking will now be done on the limited maps that Tropical Tidbits have.

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

The GFS made a move from NO to possibly MAYBE as we see the trough dropping farther west allowing for some height rises in the east as the trough approaches. CMC has also seen improvements over previous runs where we are seeing better height rises in the east with a better turning of the trough axis. ICON is more progressive with the trough then previous runs but even that saw some improvements within the trough itself where just a slower movement eastward could mean a world of difference.

Which brings us to the Euro. To put it bluntly, Dr NO crapped the bed. It loses the shortwave/energy that is the driving force for digging the trough into the south. So what we have is a weak, flat trough that there is nothing to key on. So there is no storm whatsoever. But how it loses that shortwave may be playing into one of the Euro's weaknesses/biases. What we are seeing is that when that shortwave drops down through the Plains it is now being cutoff and left behind from the broad trough where it then retrogrades it somewhat towards the SW. This MAY be playing into its habit of mishandling energy in the southwest though this is somewhat North and East of where I expect to see that occur. Considering all the guidance I see at this time argues against this and knowing one of the Euro's bias' I would tend to believe that the odds favor the Euro may be out to lunch here. 

Though the odds are long I still believe that there is a possibility here. But the GEFS/EPS ask me what I am smoking as they see virtually no potential at this time. And if I were a betting man I know where I would place my money.

And with that, weatherbell just cut off my service. So I guess any further tracking will now be done on the limited maps that Tropical Tidbits have.

So how do we get that surface reflection at Cape Hatteras to form further south? Hope for some sort of capture to keep the storm on the coast and bomb out further south?

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

So how do we get that surface reflection at Cape Hatteras to form further south? Hope for some sort of capture to keep the storm on the coast and bomb out further south?

500's are where we need to be keeping an eye on more so then the surface reflection as that will dance around from run to run somewhat as it respond to what it sees upstairs. And yes, any hope for us west of 95 is probably going to be centered on getting the 500's to go for the capture quickly enough where we see the low hug the coast if not even retrograde westward somewhat.

[snowmagnet]

16 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Think I will head over to the PA thread though. 

PA likely has more potential for snow the rest of this season, but the majority of people on this forum appreciate all of your analysis. I stopped reading all the stupid posts yesterday complaining about the winter potential.  That was absolutely  ridiculous!  Discussing snow potential is the reason people follow this forum!  As if any of us can actually wish the atmosphere to snow by our discussion.  If people don’t want to discuss or analyze, don’t log on. It’s pretty simple.  

 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, snowmagnet said:

PA likely has more potential for snow the rest of this season, but the majority of people on this forum appreciate all of your analysis. I stopped reading all the stupid posts yesterday complaining about the winter potential.  That was absolutely  ridiculous!  Discussing snow potential is the reason people follow this forum!  As if any of us can actually wish the atmosphere to snow by our discussion.  If people don’t want to discuss or analyze, don’t log on. It’s pretty simple.  

 

Some of us are here year-round, you know, and have been for years.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, snowmagnet said:

PA likely has more potential for snow the rest of this season, but the majority of people on this forum appreciate all of your analysis. I stopped reading all the stupid posts yesterday complaining about the winter potential.  That was absolutely  ridiculous!  Discussing snow potential is the reason people follow this forum!  As if any of us can actually wish the atmosphere to snow by our discussion.  If people don’t want to discuss or analyze, don’t log on. It’s pretty simple.  

 

It’s not even just snow. Some people are being  pissy about everything.  Cold, wet, cloudy... and I’m not even actually rooting for any particular thing at this point. Honestly I’m not. I like interesting weather and I’m not gonna kick another snowstorm out of bed if it happens but I’m not really rooting for that. If we don’t get more snow I’m fine. If we do I’m fine. I’m just tracking whatever. Yea it would be great if we got weeks on end of 65-75 and sunny but I don’t actually have any control over that.   Me talking about a storm threat doesn’t make it happen. My god I really don’t understand what is going on inside some people’s heads. 

And this isn’t directed at any one person and your right there are plenty of people not acting that way.

10 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Some of us are here year-round, you know, and have been for years.

I’m here all year.  I like all kinds of interesting weather. I’m just annoyed with this telling people what to talk about crap. I never tell people not to talk about a thunderstorm threat in winter season. Or not to talk about a heat wave in December. People can talk about whatever weather they they want and we should discuss whatever interesting weather is happening regardless of the month.   I post less outside snow season because a lot of the other stuff we track isn’t really a long lead tracking thing and I feel like I have less to contribute but I follow and post off and on.   I just wish people would stop it with the telling people what to discuss or that they are wasting their time.  If they don’t like the conversation just ignore it or start a new conversation about what they want to talk about. 

[RDM]

47 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Some of us are here year-round, you know, and have been for years.

Yup....   Nearly every day and through all threads.  Can't be healthy, but if I don't get my fix over the course of a day, I feel like something is missing.  The same feelings like when you go from one part of the house to another to do something.  Then when you get there you forget why you went there to begin with.  Or does that only happen to me?  (tic)

[Chris78]

It's. Close on the fv3. The whole set up is just to far east for us but sne has a chance at a HECS.

[Fozz]

17 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It's. Close on the fv3. The whole set up is just to far east for us but sne has a chance at a HECS.

Problem is, the FV3 is alone in showing this. Can’t get too excited unless better models get on board.

[Rtd208]

The FV3 is garbage. The only reason why I am mildly interested in this threat is because it is being hinted at a bit by the other models/ensembles. I will give this another 36 hours before I put this threat to rest or buy into it. 

[psuhoffman]

The period around the 26-28 is probably more likely for a fluke snow. Still highly unlikely but a lot of guidance is keeping a cutoff system under us and some has enough NS interaction to perhaps be cold enough if everything went perfect.