The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

[aldie 22]

Gfs looks snowy ish

[showmethesnow]

00Z GFS/GEFS is a no-show as the storm is OTS. Continues to be too progressive with the Midwest trough/NS. 

The latest Euro on the other hand... 

 

The surface isn't cooperating though. We see an initial low off the Florida coast beforehand that moves E/NE OTS as a secondary develops off the SE coast, moves to OBX where it is then captured by the closed low at 500's.

 

 

What the initial Florida low is doing is stringing out the circulation as we see a broad trough of low pressure aligned to the southeast. This setup is hindering the development of the coastal formation so though we are seeing deepening we are not seeing the explosiveness we would hope to see when the 500s move in for the capture. One interesting thing to note is that even though the low isn't ramping up as quickly we are still seeing pretty significant top down cooling through the column that I was discussing in my post yesterday. The temps leading into the coastal are torching at the surface (60's just 24 hours prior) and above freezing at 850s. Yet when the low starts cranking we see cold fairly rapidly mixing down in the heavier rates to where we are seeing a swath of 2-6" of snow showing up on the snow maps through portions of central VA. And this is just with a low that is being fairly significantly handicapped by the Florida low that is OTS. 

 

 

The Euro really isn't far off from being a significant event for the Mid-Atlantic and possibly the NE. Would only take some adjustments with the initial Florida low. First off, take that low out of the equation by ejecting it quicker OTS where it's influence is diminished/nonexistent where the coastal can do it's own thing without interference. Second, the configuration of the lows and the broad trough of low pressure (NE to SE axis) is far from ideal. Not only is the broadness of the trough dampening circulation but the fact that we have a low to the SE of the coastal is also hindering the development of the coastal. But eject the low with a more northerly component as shown above? This would tighten the circulation (less separation between the two lows) as well as hopefully place that low north of the developing coastal lows latitude. This SE to NE aligned trough would then be more conducive for the coastal low to develop. Not only that but it also gives a E/NE fetch off the ocean which would bring in slightly colder air as well as to expand the northern portion of the precip field which we do not see now. But the best option here? Bring that Florida low directly up the coast where instead of it fighting the coastal to a point it is actually injecting energy into it promoting the coastal development. If this scenario were to play out we would more then likely be talking bombogenesis and an HEC for the Mid-Atlantic into portions of the NE. And the above Euro isn't far off whatsoever from seeing this low coming farther northward. Any delay with that southern low will bring it into increasing influence from the trough dropping in which will tend to support a more northerly track. Just a 6 to 12 hour delay probably puts us into the window of a bombogenisis as the low would probably come up the coast.

Now all the above is not a prediction. Don't take it as such (Ji  ) It is just a dissection of an Op run at range and the possibilities it may suggest. 

[psuhoffman]

8 hours ago, Yeoman said:

A 10+ day model guess unravelling? Who woulda thunk it

Only thing more predictable are your posts 

[jayyy]

Welp... it’s going to be a grueling next 9 days as we wait this thing out. People will commit weenie suicide and come back to life a good 4 or 5 times over various model runs before the 22nd arrives. We’ll see people post about how they are done with this winter, are ready for spring, and three hours later they’ll be on here dissecting the 00z JMA if it shows a snowstorm. 

The setup isn’t perfect by any means. That being said... if things do end up lining up, this would be a monster storm. Unsure if it has the markings of a significant winter storm for our area though;  rather than the likes of New York and Boston. My gut feeling is that this thing ends up being either too progressive or bombs out well to our NE... but this winter has certainly had some surprises for us. I definitely won’t be committing either way until we are at least 3-4 days out. This pattern has volatility written all over it 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Welp... it’s going to be a grueling next 9 days as we wait this thing out. People will commit weenie suicide and come back to life a good 4 or 5 times over various model runs before the 22nd arrives. We’ll see people post about how they are done with this winter, are ready for spring, and three hours later they’ll be on here dissecting the 00z JMA if it shows a snowstorm. 

The setup isn’t perfect by any means. That being said... if things do end up lining up, this would be a monster storm. Unsure if it has the markings of a significant winter storm for our area though;  rather than the likes of New York and Boston. My gut feeling is that this thing ends up being either too progressive or bombs out well to our NE... but this winter has certainly had some surprises for us. I definitely won’t be committing either way until we are at least 3-4 days out. This pattern has volatility written all over it 

lol

its fukking Spring.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Welp... it’s going to be a grueling next 9 days as we wait this thing out. People will commit weenie suicide and come back to life a good 4 or 5 times over various model runs before the 22nd arrives. We’ll see people post about how they are done with this winter, are ready for spring, and three hours later they’ll be on here dissecting the 00z JMA if it shows a snowstorm. 

The setup isn’t perfect by any means. That being said... if things do end up lining up, this would be a monster storm. Unsure if it has the markings of a significant winter storm for our area though;  rather than the likes of New York and Boston. My gut feeling is that this thing ends up being either too progressive or bombs out well to our NE... but this winter has certainly had some surprises for us. I definitely won’t be committing either way until we are at least 3-4 days out. This pattern has volatility written all over it 

so you are all in BUT also getting a rope ready and looking for a tall tree? 

[BristowWx]

one thing I can tell from just clicking through the GFS op through 384 is there isn't a rapid push toward spring weather.  totally unscientific method and most likely wont be some monster snow storm but if you wanted an extension of colder weather that is still on the table. 

[dallen7908]

EPS snow fall mean over the next 15 days is ~0.3" for College Park.  Even the 95th% ensemble member gives us < 1". 

GEFS snow fall mean over the next 16 days is between 0.5 and 1.0" for our area. 

However, the 06 UT GFS gives I-70 south T-2" of snow in the 5-6 day time frame as a weak clipper tries to intensify off the coast. 

[frd]

17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

lol

its fukking Spring.

Hearing from some mets and pros as well, this might be a nice Spring versus winter then summer and no spring to be had.  That would be a welcome change. 

All I can think when I see these ( last chance snow runs )  is how much money the person or group could make once they get forecasts to become close to just

80 % accurate at leads. 

And why has there not been a Bond villian that was an evil weather bad guy ?  The potential plot of the movie could go in multiple directions and the movie would lend itself to the most incredible footage ever seen on the big screen , I would envision a combination of both images, footage , etc with real hurricane, tornado, blizzard footage, rogue waves, sunamis, and more and  of course special effects too. 

That would be a weather weenie 007 dream come true.  

[Chris78]

1 hour ago, dallen7908 said:

EPS snow fall mean over the next 15 days is ~0.3" for College Park.  Even the 95th% ensemble member gives us < 1". 

GEFS snow fall mean over the next 16 days is between 0.5 and 1.0" for our area. 

However, the 06 UT GFS gives I-70 south T-2" of snow in the 5-6 day time frame as a weak clipper tries to intensify off the coast. 

So your saying there's a chance...lol

[Albedoman]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

00Z GFS/GEFS is a no-show as the storm is OTS. Continues to be too progressive with the Midwest trough/NS. 

The latest Euro on the other hand... 

 

The surface isn't cooperating though. We see an initial low off the Florida coast beforehand that moves E/NE OTS as a secondary develops off the SE coast, moves to OBX where it is then captured by the closed low at 500's.

 

 

What the initial Florida low is doing is stringing out the circulation as we see a broad trough of low pressure aligned to the southeast. This setup is hindering the development of the coastal formation so though we are seeing deepening we are not seeing the explosiveness we would hope to see when the 500s move in for the capture. One interesting thing to note is that even though the low isn't ramping up as quickly we are still seeing pretty significant top down cooling through the column that I was discussing in my post yesterday. The temps leading into the coastal are torching at the surface (60's just 24 hours prior) and above freezing at 850s. Yet when the low starts cranking we see cold fairly rapidly mixing down in the heavier rates to where we are seeing a swath of 2-6" of snow showing up on the snow maps through portions of central VA. And this is just with a low that is being fairly significantly handicapped by the Florida low that is OTS. 

 

 

The Euro really isn't far off from being a significant event for the Mid-Atlantic and possibly the NE. Would only take some adjustments with the initial Florida low. First off, take that low out of the equation by ejecting it quicker OTS where it's influence is diminished/nonexistent where the coastal can do it's own thing without interference. Second, the configuration of the lows and the broad trough of low pressure (NE to SE axis) is far from ideal. Not only is the broadness of the trough dampening circulation but the fact that we have a low to the SE of the coastal is also hindering the development of the coastal. But eject the low with a more northerly component as shown above? This would tighten the circulation (less separation between the two lows) as well as hopefully place that low north of the developing coastal lows latitude. This SE to NE aligned trough would then be more conducive for the coastal low to develop. Not only that but it also gives a E/NE fetch off the ocean which would bring in slightly colder air as well as to expand the northern portion of the precip field which we do not see now. But the best option here? Bring that Florida low directly up the coast where instead of it fighting the coastal to a point it is actually injecting energy into it promoting the coastal development. If this scenario were to play out we would more then likely be talking bombogenesis and an HEC for the Mid-Atlantic into portions of the NE. And the above Euro isn't far off whatsoever from seeing this low coming farther northward. Any delay with that southern low will bring it into increasing influence from the trough dropping in which will tend to support a more northerly track. Just a 6 to 12 hour delay probably puts us into the window of a bombogenisis as the low would probably come up the coast.

Now all the above is not a prediction. Don't take it as such (Ji  ) It is just a dissection of an Op run at range and the possibilities it may suggest. 

In my 30 + years of  looking at potential KU storms, this storm definitely has potential. Showmemthesnow is spot on with his analysis and concerns. The GFS showed a delay in the formation of the LP this morning off the coast which leads me to believe that bombogenesis can occur as the storm retrogrades. To all, this storm reminds me of a similar pattern we all know- Sandy- but further south. I do not know how much cold air can get wrapped up in it yet but beach erosion and coastal flooding sure seems like a good bet right now. This is what the ole timers say is a "keeper" as far as tracking goes. That low in Florida has me really concerned as it can deepen quickly.

 

[jayyy]

PS - this storm hitting the plains is a monster. 60-80mph winds with a foot of snow for the northeastern plains of Colorado and points NE. Good for them. It’s been a crap winter for the northern plains. Really the entire northern tier of the country minus the Pacific Northwest. Looks like there will be tornadoes on the southern flank. A good ole March monster forming between an insane temperature gradient.

This is why the 22nd needs to be watched. March, as we all know from 1993 and other years, produces some of the deepest / strongest low pressure systems we see all year. If we can get that western ridge to setup far enough west and get that cold push from Quebec to make its way here in a timely fashion, we have a shot at one last hurrah before the pattern flips for good. 

[jayyy]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

so you are all in BUT also getting a rope ready and looking for a tall tree? 

Lol. Nope. I’m looking for it to be 65 degrees and sunny. I’m good on more snow. Unless it’s on the weekend. No more damn snow days for the kids. 

[frd]

1 hour ago, jayyy said:

PS - this storm hitting the plains is a monster. 60-80mph winds with a foot of snow for the northeastern plains of Colorado and points NE. Good for them. It’s been a crap winter for the northern plains. Really the entire northern tier of the country minus the Pacific Northwest. Looks like there will be tornadoes on the southern flank. A good ole March monster forming between an insane temperature gradient.

This is why the 22nd needs to be watched. March, as we all know from 1993 and other years, produces some of the deepest / strongest low pressure systems we see all year. If we can get that western ridge to setup far enough west and get that cold push from Quebec to make its way here in a timely fashion, we have a shot at one last hurrah before the pattern flips for good. 

Looking at the radar now at Denver where my daughter is, well pure joy if you love snow !

Wish I were there. Blizzard warning now and really ramping up there,  Wow. I miss Bomb Cyclones. 

 

 

[Chris78]

Icon looks like it's ready to go boom.

[Chris78]

If the system is dynamic enough it could be 50 during the day and snowing 12 hours later.

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Icon looks like it's ready to go boom.

I think that positively titled trough to the west will kick it NE too late for us.  Needs to be neutral negative is my thought.  

[Wonderdog]

35 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I think that positively titled trough to the west will kick it NE too late for us.  Needs to be neutral negative is my thought.  

As of today yes. But that 500 look to my untrained eye looks like it has massive potential for the east coast.

[BristowWx]

Just now, Wonderdog said:

As of today yes. But that 500 look to my untrained eye looks like it has massive potential for the east coast.

Agree.  Potential is there.  I wont say "massive" until at least Saturday or Sunday.  Nope, wont do it... not even for you W-dog. 

[osfan24]

GFS way wide right.

[psuhoffman]

I’ll say this...the h5 solutions on the 12z guidance are crazy and definitely enough to keep me interested a while longer. So far nothing is really bringing it together at the surface. Sloppy phases. Weird fujiwara solutions. Crazy ways to fail with actually a great h5 setup...lol. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Things are trending exactly as I said they would. +PNA is dampened, too much NAO, but it's basing out of the AO. The ENSO subsurface is now trending away from El Nino.  It looks like +PNA breaks down to a more mild Spring pattern already by day 15 on GFS ensembles. These stick, in my experience. 

[Hyphnx]

3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Things are trending exactly as I said they would. +PNA is dampened, too much NAO, but it's basing out of the AO. The ENSO subsurface is now trending away from El Nino.  It looks like +PNA breaks down to a more mild Spring pattern already by day 15 on GFS ensembles. These stick, in my experience. 

Sweet, maybe the whole subforum can cash out at once. What an exit.

[Amped]

Problem is there's not enough cold air behind this system and the high ahead of it is too far south. Sets us up for a cold air moves out then precip moves in scenario.  Still a lot of time for things to change.

[Wonderdog]

20 minutes ago, Amped said:

Problem is there's not enough cold air behind this system and the high ahead of it is too far south. Sets us up for a cold air moves out then precip moves in scenario.  Still a lot of time for things to change.

True at this juncture. Things definitely have to change before we can cash in.

[Ji]

1 hour ago, Wonderdog said:

True at this juncture. Things definitely have to change before we can cash in.

On 3/12/2019 at 2:56 PM, psuhoffman said:

euro laughs at us... 1005 mb low near Bermuda LOL

Flow is way too progressive in the northern stream on the euro.  

is it me or was that the worst run  of the euro this season?

[dallen7908]

Euro tracks our storm over the Grand Bahamas or about 1400 km south of where we want it

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Euro tracks our storm over the Grand Bahamas or about 1400 km south of where we want it

Right where we want it.

[Scraff]

No need to be a bullseye this far out. Lol. 

[Amped]

11 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Euro tracks our storm over the Grand Bahamas or about 1400 km south of where we want it

At least its setting up the pattern for the March 32nd snowstorm