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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker

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  On 3/4/2019 at 3:40 AM, motsco said:

bring on spring and summer with less rain - been f ing raining since last july - lets get some heat and dryness going on.  

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Here here, time for some brews on the beach and chill'in. 

Tired of mold in every season !  Jeez, I have to powerwash yet again. 

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Some of us have missed most storms either north or south this year.  We only got about 8” in the January storm too and nothing more than 2” since then. I’m all for Spring (if it’s actially warm), but March still has some opportunities in my opinion. So I would like to request a Miller A for next Sunday please. 

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  On 3/4/2019 at 2:30 PM, Chris78 said:

I'm hoping we can juice it up some. One advantage Friday has, is it will be cold leading up to it. Forecasted highs in the 20s/ 30s all week and lows in the teens/ 20s should help.

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Nice little spinning low -NAO hrs 50-57 on the 12z NAM. If that can hold, we have a chance.. knowing the seasonal trends it won't. 

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  On 3/4/2019 at 2:30 PM, Chris78 said:

I'm hoping we can juice it up some. One advantage Friday has, is it will be cold leading up to it. Forecasted highs in the 20s/ 30s all week and lows in the teens/ 20s should help.

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That one is dead before it even started.    Euro is like, wha?  And it's warm, light and gonna switch to rain.  White rain to rain.  SE Ridge, where are you

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  On 3/4/2019 at 2:54 PM, stormtracker said:

 

That one is dead before it even started.    Euro is like, wha?  And it's warm, light and gonna switch to rain.  White rain to rain.  SE Ridge, where are you

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still might be better than what just occurred this weekend for our latitude.  It wouldn't take much by comparison.  worth watching I suppose

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  On 3/4/2019 at 3:07 PM, showmethesnow said:

Euro might be biting a little for the weekend. Stronger more distinct shortwave now showing up in the Dakotas moving eastward for the weekend on the esp. Guess we will see where future runs take us with that feature.

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just one more small event that is all snow for all of us and sticks to the ground before the clocks spring forward.  not too much to ask I would think lol

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  On 3/4/2019 at 3:11 PM, BristowWx said:

just one more small event that is all snow for all of us and sticks to the ground before the clocks spring forward.  not too much to ask I would think lol

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Icon doesn’t look bad. All snow through 114. I don’t really care either way at this point. If it rain so so be it. If it snows, yay! I’ve been reaped. I’m in a better place now;)

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  On 3/4/2019 at 3:11 PM, BristowWx said:

just one more small event that is all snow for all of us and sticks to the ground before the clocks spring forward.  not too much to ask I would think lol

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Model watching with forward time is awful...Makes me detest the early daylight savings start time even more, lol

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  On 3/4/2019 at 3:28 PM, Deer Whisperer said:

Icon doesn’t look bad. All snow through 114. I don’t really care either way at this point. If it rain so so be it. If it snows, yay! I’ve been reaped. I’m in a better place now;)

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We can at least track and hope, but I don't like using hope as a course of action. We all love snow so what the heck

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  On 3/4/2019 at 2:54 PM, stormtracker said:

 

That one is dead before it even started.    Euro is like, wha?  And it's warm, light and gonna switch to rain.  White rain to rain.  SE Ridge, where are you

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I'm sure your right. Although  Temps leading in look to be much better than what we just had.

Gfs/fv3 /Icon say maybe.

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  On 3/4/2019 at 2:54 PM, stormtracker said:

 

That one is dead before it even started.    Euro is like, wha?  And it's warm, light and gonna switch to rain.  White rain to rain.  SE Ridge, where are you

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The euro that at 18z yesterday was still giving my house 4" of snow for last night? That euro?

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  On 3/4/2019 at 3:28 PM, Deer Whisperer said:

Icon doesn’t look bad. All snow through 114. I don’t really care either way at this point. If it rain so so be it. If it snows, yay! I’ve been reaped. I’m in a better place now;)

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Stormtracker thinks its dead and he is probably right.  We have done better at longer leads only to have things change for the worse as we get closer.  But at least temps are a touch better than what we just had.  we needed like 50 miles and 3 degrees to make that something but we didn't get it. 

 

Of course, I am talking to a ghost so you can see where my sanity is headed.

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First time I have really looked beyond yesterday's storm but the Fri through Mon period does show a little promise. One thing I would probably keep an eye on is how strong the storm running OTS is on Fri/Sat as that will have an impact on the cutter running behind it. Stronger Friday system will tend to knock down heights behind it and in front of the approaching cutter. Probably asking far too much to have heights beaten down enough to get the cutter to slide underneath us but I can see how they are knocked down enough where they put us in a position to score some decent overrunning from the cutter.

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  On 3/4/2019 at 3:38 PM, BristowWx said:

Stormtracker thinks its dead and he is probably right.  We have done better at longer leads only to have things change for the worse as we get closer.  But at least temps are a touch better than what we just had.  we needed like 50 miles and 3 degrees to make that something but we didn't get it. 

 

Of course, I am talking to a ghost so you can see where my sanity is headed.

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We’ve also had things get better as it gets closer in time. I guess lots of people were burned after getting rain instead of snow yesterday. However, I was in the rain the whole time, so I didn’t feel like I lost anything, other than dry ground. 

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