AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It means nothing, but NAM is rain for March 3rd. Usual caveats apply. Yeah it kind of killed the storm chance a little bit. It's not going to rain, but.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 2 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Looking at the latest EPS vs yesterdays 12z run and we can see the improvements we are seeing. Notice with the upper level support now focusing more towards the coastal we are seeing much weaker lower pressures to our west and a stronger and quicker developing coastal compared to previous runs. In response to the improvements with our coastal we are seeing a closer/tucked in coastal that is now moving northward somewhat before exiting stage right. We are also seeing a pretty good response in regards to our temps as well. We really aren't too far from a solution that might have a somewhat meaningful impact for portions of our region especially to the NE (NE MD pummled ). yesterday 12z 00Z Problem is the guidance is also trending warmer and that is across all guidance. We likely do see some good precip from the coastal but I have doubts it’s snow, even up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 ICON is very close for everyone but a big hit nw of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 So close it hurts good improvement though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2019 Author Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, Snowchaser said: So close it hurts good improvement though What specific city are you looking for? I can look up the soundings. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, Snowchaser said: So close it hurts good improvement though Close to what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Icon from 06z to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: So close it hurts good improvement though I'm a big fan of the dark blues over my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: So close it hurts good improvement though Looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Looks good to me It’s good for a lot of people on here. Not everyone though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: What specific city are you looking for? I can look up the soundings. Do you have Woodbridge VA or DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 It's not a pattern that would rain as the low slides south. We have a sneaky -NAO I think. -NAO means it hugs the coastal plain. (After the NAM it's more likely to be neutral-NAO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, Solution Man said: Do you have Woodbridge VA that R/S line on the ICON literally follows rt 28 almost perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 14 minutes ago, LP08 said: ICON is very close for everyone but a big hit nw of the cities. Icon has been consistently crushing my yard for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: that R/S line on the ICON literally follows rt 28 almost perfectly. That's what I was thinking when I looked at it...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 I’m on the freaking line! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 That ICON again looks like potential ice/sleet just immediately along and northwest of I-95. Just going by the 2-m temp and precip type on TT (and the ICON shows ZR/IP as "rain"). Can't see what levels above the surface are like. Also, maybe this was mentioned before...but I don't necessarily think our "problem" (at least nearer to the metros) is so much the location/path of the southern low, but that low north of the Lakes that moves east-northeast and whatever front that takes its time moving through. How fast can we get cold air in here as the low to the south moves up toward the coast and can there be enough of a push? The temps actually seem to cool slightly or at least stay "constant" during the precip. Obviously that's all inter-related in some fashion. Probably being master of the obvious here, so sorry if that's the case, but just bringing that up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 I can see a scenario where the parkway points north and west gets 5 or more and east of the parkway gets NOTHING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2019 Author Share Posted February 28, 2019 12 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Do you have Woodbridge VA or DCA I was mostly mocking the annoying kid from CHO. We're on the bubble with a lean toward rain. I can't see the soundings from the ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2019 Author Share Posted February 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Icon has been consistently crushing my yard for a while now. You and Mappy look pretty good for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I was mostly mocking the annoying kid from CHO. We're on the bubble with a lean toward rain. I can't see the soundings from the ICON I knew you were kidding around lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: I was mostly mocking the annoying kid from CHO. We're on the bubble with a lean toward rain. I can't see the soundings from the ICON Yeah, ICON is kind of difficult to get much from...at least on TT, you can only see the 2-m temps, plus freezing/sleet is shown as "rain" on those plots. Makes it a bit hard to assess in these situations. Agree that right near metros is kind of leaning rain according to that, but the 2-m freezing line isn't far away. Crazy to parse it too much at this point, of course. We really need colder air to move in sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: You and Mappy look pretty good for this one I am cautiously optimistic but I’ll feel a lot better if the euro stops cutting the low to northern WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: I am cautiously optimistic but I’ll feel a lot better if the euro stops cutting the low to northern WV. You'll get pummeled while us down here near the metro area will be sucking on rain and mid 30s! Joking of course(?), but it is true what you say about the Euro, for everyone (don't want a low moving that far north). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Going to start a new thread for Sunday/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 21 minutes ago, mappy said: I'm a big fan of the dark blues over my area I like the nice flush green over mby lol, snow 20 miles to my north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am cautiously optimistic but I’ll feel a lot better if the euro stops cutting the low to northern WV. i can only follow so many threats at a time. ill focus on monday after tomorrow lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 GFs actually looks significantly better (click to animate) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: GFs actually looks significantly better (click to animate) I thought it looked a tick warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: GFs actually looks significantly better (click to animate) depends where you live. Everyone near DC its still a RAIN STORM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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