Chris78 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Lol. GFS totally kills the Monday storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 wtf just happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Another op run at range, and a different outcome. And people are actually surprised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: wtf just happened It's the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, Solution Man said: It's the GFS i know, it was just funny to see it all disappear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: i know, it was just funny to see it all disappear They don't call it the Gofus for nothing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Just now, Solution Man said: They don't call it the Gofus for nothing Or maybe it is right... I mean we are still 5-6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Just now, Solution Man said: They don't call it the Gofus for nothing true that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 At least it will be freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 The gfs really is a disaster lol. Totally squashes everything. No spacing between any of the waves. The bigger concern to me is the trend at h5. The trough is digging less and coming in further east and more positively tilted lately. Honestly when I was looking at the 12z op euro at h5 I was thinking “I don’t really see how this wave is amplified enough to be significant”. There was nothing but flat progressive flow. There is still time and plenty of waves to work with but we need a trend towards one of these to be more amplified and more dig from the northern stream to start soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Dear God, bring on Spring. Models have lost all 3 storms and it is only Tuesday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Fv3 kills everything the same way the gfs does. There is some wave along the front Saturday that wasn’t there before and behind it the trough stretches out positively tilted and flat and just squashes everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The gfs really is a disaster lol. Totally squashes everything. No spacing between any of the waves. The bigger concern to me is the trend at h5. The trough is digging less and coming in further east and more positively tilted lately. Honestly when I was looking at the 12z op euro at h5 I was thinking “I don’t really see how this wave is amplified enough to be significant”. There was nothing but flat progressive flow. There is still time and plenty of waves to work with but we need a trend towards one of these to be more amplified and more dig from the northern stream to start soon. The seasonal trend of squashed/surpressed or cutter mostly continues. When I read about the record speed of the PAC jet this winter ( 2 or 3 record events since October ) in a West to East projectory, well I can't help but to think without a block or something to buckle or slow the jet it will be impossible for certain shortwaves to survive, let alone amplify. (issues no blocking ie. -NAO or failed attempts at a +PNA on at least 12 occassions ) I wonder if this winter this was an issue or bias in all the modeling for some reason with the models. I say that because on countless occassions storms went poof. cutters moved SE, maybe the models underestimate certain factors. Who knows what they are? Storms progged to be huge went weakish, in the medium range, Happens over and over. A trait of the winter so far, same as the issues that give us Nina ish conditions at times. I mean it interesting to ponder what the heck is going on, but all I want is some SNOW !!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Right where we want it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Ohhh those weak El Niños...lol @psuhoffman Ya said the average was like 15", right? Well, we're just past that, so if none of these work out that should be no surprise, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The gfs really is a disaster lol. Totally squashes everything. No spacing between any of the waves. The bigger concern to me is the trend at h5. The trough is digging less and coming in further east and more positively tilted lately. Honestly when I was looking at the 12z op euro at h5 I was thinking “I don’t really see how this wave is amplified enough to be significant”. There was nothing but flat progressive flow. There is still time and plenty of waves to work with but we need a trend towards one of these to be more amplified and more dig from the northern stream to start soon. Agreed and after I looked at the 12z gfs I didn’t want to say anything to bring the vibe down, but it looked squashy at h5. I don’t think the upper level pattern has been ideal all year. We’ve just gotten lucky with the progressive cold shots in an active pattern. That might hold true over the next couple weeks as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: Agreed and after I looked at the 12z gfs I didn’t want to say anything to bring the vibe down, but it looked squashy at h5. I don’t think the upper level pattern has been ideal all year. We’ve just gotten lucky with the progressive cold shots in an active pattern. That might hold true over the next couple weeks as well. The gfs is the worst model I wouldn’t make my forecast based on the gfs. Everything is on the air at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 This isn't pertinent to March but has anyone seen any long range Spring/Summer forecasts? Just curious. Wondering if El Nino will survive throughout the summer and what that will mean as far as the weather being generally wet or dry. I refuse to believe we can have another summer like last year with that much rain but I guess stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Some shitty model runs this afternoon. No one gets snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 I apologize if this has already been posted here today. Hat tip to Solak in the SE forum NWS bulletin saying that full release of FV3 delayed. Among other things, the cold/snow biases are being investigated. https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-12gfsv15.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 It’s a huge improvement from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 17 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: It’s a huge improvement from the 12z run. Desperation time when the navgem is being posted lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 26 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: It's really hard not to like this Eps clustering at a day 6 lead. That from 12z? If so there was a mix of south, hits, and north. Problem was the really amped up solutions that put down big totals (8”+) were all north and rain. It was depressing that most of the hits were pretty minor to modest snowfalls. The members that amped up into a big storm pushed the snow nw of us. That kind of was a red flag that out potential might be limited with this. If it’s weak it might hit but if it amps up enough to give good precip it might go north. These progressive waves are annoying that way. It’s really hard to get crushed by them at our latitude. That’s why I liked the idea of the northern branch digging and phasing and something bombing up the coast later in the week. That scenario would have more potential to give a big storm. The early week storm seems capped at a moderate event and even that seems ambitious att. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That from 12z? If so there was a mix of south, hits, and north. Problem was the really amped up solutions that put down big totals (8”+) were all north and rain. It was depressing that most of the hits were pretty minor to modest snowfalls. The members that amped up into a big storm pushed the snow nw of us. That kind of was a red flag that out potential might be limited with this. If it’s weak it might hit but if it amps up enough to give good precip it might go north. These progressive waves are annoying that way. It’s really hard to get crushed by them at our latitude. That’s why I liked the idea of the northern branch digging and phasing and something bombing up the coast later in the week. That scenario would have more potential to give a big storm. The early week storm seems capped at a moderate event and even that seems ambitious att. I think it's 18z. More amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 The next 10 days looks like a microcosm of the winter as a whole. A threat window with tight spaced mostly progressive waves. We nickel and dimes our way to climo in many areas of the sub forum. Hopefully we can finish strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 @losetoa6 Full disclosure I am big game hunting at this point. I’m still 15” below climo and it’s been a weird year in that even locally up here I’ve been stuck in a hole. I’ve seemed to get less than even areas around me up here on several occasions. Not used to that. But more importantly I am a big storm fan and right now this winter has had the lowest single storm totals of every year I’ve been up here. So another 3-5” snow has absolutely no appeal or interest to me. It wouldn’t change my perception of this year at all. It’s 8”+ or bust for me. I’ve had an 8”+ storm 8 years in a row and if this winter fails to achieve that it will feel like a failure to me. Keep in mind I’m more a big storm fan than just snow. I would rather a winter with 20” that all came in one big storm than a winter with 30” that fell 2-4” at a time. That’s just me. I know most would go the other way on that but this winter has been my least favorite type. All nickel and dime stuff here. So keep that in mind wrt my analysis. I think the odds of seeing snow in the next 2 weeks remains high. I think one of these waves will trend better. But I think the chances of an 8”+ storm took a serious hit the last 24 hours with the trend towards a much flatter trough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 2 hours ago, Danajames said: This isn't pertinent to March but has anyone seen any long range Spring/Summer forecasts? Just curious. Wondering if El Nino will survive throughout the summer and what that will mean as far as the weather being generally wet or dry. I refuse to believe we can have another summer like last year with that much rain but I guess stranger things have happened. It will likely be ENSO Neutral this year, +Neutral. I would expect slightly above average temperatures, and normal to above normal precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 it's only fitting that the icon does the reverse of the GooFuS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: it's only fitting that the icon does the reverse of the GooFuS lol Yeah, a beautiful rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: it's only fitting that the icon does the reverse of the GooFuS lol Icon has been pretty good, recently. Was the first to say no Sunday storm a few weeks back and wasn't too bad on the last storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now