Subtropics Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 8 hours ago, Jebman said: You guys WILL be demolished by snow this winter. I thought you promised biblical snows next winter! We are ready for warmth now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Nothing matters till the euro runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: FV3 has come around Would be nice if it was a good model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Where is Ji complaining about it being a 1004 Low (aka to Ji is a HP) 250 miles off VA Beach... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Just now, Chris78 said: Let's just make this easy and go 3 for 3 lol. 1 to 3 on Friday 6 to 12 on Monday. 6 to 12 on Wednesday. Spring can start the following weekend with temps in the 60's lol. hell even I would be on board for that. After the time change it doesn't matter to me as much since I have trouble staying up until 10:30 let alone 11:30. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2019 Author Share Posted February 26, 2019 Just now, Ji said: Nothing matters till the euro runs Duh. This goes without saying. Although the Euro led the way with this and 12z suite likes it now so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Lookin tasty! Especially for those of us near Charlottesville, and DC points south We all know where you live... you can stop now. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Nothing matters till the euro runs Unless it shows snow for us then it's wrong....right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Timing seems to be different on the GFS and the FV3. GFS @h144 vs FV3 @h132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Unless it shows snow for us then it's wrong....right? Only if it takes away snow from him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: lol our fail scenario in MD is clear...strong enough cutter Saturday so the Monday storm misses just south but amplifies enough to delay the development of the storm Wednesday which gets going late and hooks back in to crush New England. Snow to the south of us, snow to the north of us...stuck in the middle with bare ground. 99% chance it happens as you say. Your fail scenarios almost are gold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Unless it shows snow for us then it's wrong....right? yep.....just preparing for the coming disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We all know where you live... you can stop now. why is someone from CHO posting in our forum? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 21 minutes ago, Hyphnx said: this map makes me want to yank my eyeballs out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: why is someone from CHO posting in our forum? Maybe because Central VA is part of the subforum? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 DC 3-4” with room for improvement. I’m excited for the upcoming runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 15 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Lookin tasty! Especially for those of us near Charlottesville, and DC points south I could post the ggem and say looks great, especially for those of us in MD and Baltimore north. This thread will be garbage if everyone cherry picks and posts maps showing snow in their yard with comments like “looks good especially here” with no objective analysis or value added. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 minute ago, mappy said: this map makes me want to yank my eyeballs out. They have to let the interns get hands on experience too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: why is someone from CHO posting in our forum? Because CHO is in our subforum and is part of the LWX CWA. We also have some great posters from CHO and the surrounding areas, don't let snowchaser color that 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 minute ago, WesternFringe said: Maybe because Central VA is part of the subforum? lol I was going to say the same thing. This forum covers a very broad area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Looks like UKIE has the Monday storm... 144 has a 1002mb SLP just SE of NYC near LI... not sure how it got there though as hr 120 maps on meteocentre aren't helpful. Going to have to wait for weathermodels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Just now, LeesburgWx said: They have to let the interns get hands on experience too there are some poor map makers at NWS. love the folks who work there, of course, just wish they'd hire me to make their maps instead. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I could post the ggem and say looks great, especially for those of us in MD and Baltimore north. This thread will be garbage if everyone cherry picks and posts maps showing snow in their yard with comments like “looks good especially here” with no objective analysis or value added. What are you even talking about!?? I bring up Charlottesville once and you freak out like a child lol. Chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Okay...So CHO is in the subforum... and everyone can cherry pick the model that shows the most snow for their backyard. If you do not have any analysis to based your map on or you still want to argue about your location in the subforum... please take it to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Okay...So CHO is in the subforum... and everyone can cherry pick the model that shows the most snow for their backyard. If you do not have any analysis to based your map on or you still want to argue about your location in the subforum... please take it to the banter thread. Just look at the data! Most of the euro members point to a central Virginia snowstorm. Even noaa sees that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 @mappy and other Marylanders will abscond with the 12z CMC lol 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, yoda said: @mappy and other Marylanders will abscond with the 12z CMC lol I saw that. It’s on its own though. I won’t get to excited about the cmc lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 99% chance it happens as you say. Your fail scenarios almost are gold LOL I am fairly optimistic we will see some snow out of this whole pattern. I am more iffy on if any of them can become the "big dog" we (you and me) really want at this point. But I am not saying it won't happen. My fail scenarios work so often because our climo sucks, and the models have a tendency to over forecast snow for our area in general. I don't know why...and its not as bad as some make it with perception bias and cherry picking the runs that show a ton of snow and forgetting all the runs that showed no snow... but still in general MOST threats will fail or at least fail to live up to the "hope" for a big storm. There is a "win" scenario too. But I am a little torn right now about how this is trending. The weekend cutter is trending weaker which is opening the door to the Sunday/Monday wave. That is trending better across guidance and that wave has some upside and I would not kick a 4-8" storm out of bed or anything... but there is a cap on that imo. The isnt really much amplification associated with it in the northern stream and there is no ridging out west and its just unlikely that wave becomes a big storm. And the problem is the more that wave amplifies there is a corresponding degradation of the threat around the 6th and that one was the bigger potential with a PNA ridge out west and the northern stream digging in. That could become a big storm, but its likely to get squashed if the wave Monday amplifies. I just don't see enough space right now for both. People can take that for what it is worth, the trends with the Sunday/Monday storm right now are good. This is not meant to be a deb post. That is trending towards being a pretty good storm in our area. But it might cost us the shot at a big dog later next week. Some would gladly make that trade...others would not. And in the end for me it depends how much snow the Sunday/Monday storm ends up. If I can get 6" plus out of it...I would give up the shot at a big storm later. But if I get another 3-4" fringe event while south of me gets more and then the next storm gets squashed because of it....that would be a pretty crappy way to end the season imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Just now, yoda said: @mappy and other Marylanders will abscond with the 12z CMC lol Time to hug a Canuck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Lot's of dissecting verbatim maps on a d5+ threat. lol. Everything looks good enough for me. Typical boom/bust options that are present with every.single.storm 5+ days out. I'll jump into the fray on Sunday. For now I only care about snow or no snow solutions. So far snow is winning. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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