LP08 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just now, Chris78 said: That's just our appetizer for next week's HECS lol Look at 180 at 0z. We approve of that message, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Look at 180 at 0z. We approve of that message, lol Lot of confluence in the NE at 180 on the 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 11 minutes ago, mappy said: snow soon? Looking that way with typical lead time caveats. Discrete windows have been really friendly this year even if few and far between. Considering there are 2 half decent windows the first week of March, I'd go with over 50/50 chances but only the second chance has potential to "wow" anyone. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looking that way with typical lead time caveats. Discrete windows have been really friendly this year even if few and far between. Considering there are 2 half decent windows the first week of March, I'd go with over 50/50 chances but only the second chance has potential to "wow" anyone. I'm taking you mean the Friday thing as the first and next week as the potential second. I like next week for some odd reason. I think I'm throwing my chips in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Bob is back. Something is brewing. Game on boys! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxbeaz Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 11 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Now I will show you why your wrong about that epo look being a problem. It's not the most perfect pattern I would pick if I could draw up the best way to get snow. Centering the blocking on the NAO side would be better...but that look has worked before. It has failed sometimes also...but we can fail in even the most perfect west based NAO block also...not every good pattern ends up with snow on the ground. Here are some examples of similar patterns that did work. A few BIG storms...and then some more typical but good ones. No 2 looks are every exactly the same but these are all pretty close. Probably the best example of March cold and snow came from a very similar look this the one coming up. 1960 Obviously 1993 is another example that lead to a monster storm February 2006 a similarly centered EPO ridge worked with with a pretty good storm And there were a couple other years where this type of pattern simply lead to a decent snowfall... 2 moderate snows early in 1996 that amounted to 7.5" in Baltimore, and one 5" storm in 1978. Finally... you said this look is not good to get a trough in the east... again what are you talking about. Right now ALL the guidance is dumping a pretty darn cold trough into the east next week. The bigger issue looks to be suppression right now. I am not sure if NC ends up with a snowstorm that you can say the problem was "no trough in the east". Maybe this progression with change and turn into a massive fail but right now EVERYTHING indicates its going to be pretty cold day 8-14. Maybe we get snow out of it...maybe not...but the epo isn't the problem. Bravo! Super long time lurker here and first post. I learned more from these posts and your simple layman terms than most. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 As long as it's not on the 6th, we are good. Timing seems to be up in the air from what I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 ICON looks good not GREAT, but a storm is in the making imo the cold air will be in place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 On 2/23/2019 at 11:06 PM, Steve25 said: I HATE the warm seasons with a burning passion. Hate the flowers, overgrown everything, bugs, pollen, sunburns, sweating just from going outside. There is literally nothing I look forward to. I like the beach in warm weather, but I don't need our summers to have that. I could go to a Florida beach for vacation during the winter if I wanted to experience it. Basically, you could wipe out our Spring and Summer and I wouldn't lose one ounce of sleep over it. Don't get me wrong, I love a nice 55 degree sunny day! I just wish that was our max in the warm seasons. That would be beautiful! Does anyone know a place where Summer temps top out between 55-65 degrees on average? Alaska lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 It’s amazing how all of our threats this year have come on the heels of winter cancel lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Friday starting to gain some traction for the northern parts of the sub. GGEM, ICON, and Euro all showing 1-3, GEM closer to a nice hit, with 4-5" around the M/D line and just north. EPS wasn't bad for the event, had a few GEM-esque looks in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Haven't seen temps yet... but GGEM has a weak coastal for middle of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 32 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm taking you mean the Friday thing as the first and next week as the potential second. I like next week for some odd reason. I think I'm throwing my chips in Yea, next week is one of those 2014/2015 timing type plays. A couple significant but relatively brief cold intrusions with active flow has been our friend since 2013. We could line things up and get 3+ events or be outside the margins and strike out. I don't have any guesses better than what everyone has already posted. Being March and having strong thermal boundaries/baroclinic zones nearby could turn a typical shortwave into an atypical outcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 GFS at 120 went from a 988 low into Canada to a 1007 over Pittsburgh. Doesn't change much of the outcome in regards to rain for out area but will have ripple effects the rest of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 25 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: ICON looks good not GREAT, but a storm is in the making imo the cold air will be in place! That is the weaker threat next week. It’s there but likely spaced too close to the amplifying system in front to become a big deal. The one after that has more room to amplify. Doesn’t mean it can’t be a nice snowfall though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Haven't seen temps yet... but GGEM has a weak coastal for middle of next week If I had to guess it would be cold, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: GFS at 120 went from a 988 low into Canada to a 1007 over Pittsburgh. Doesn't change much of the outcome in regards to rain for out area but will have ripple effects the rest of the run. GFS rapidly shuffling things around. I think it hasn't a clue. Upstream will be key. Like the trends though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Models finally catching up to the MJO lag ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 10 minutes ago, LP08 said: GFS at 120 went from a 988 low into Canada to a 1007 over Pittsburgh. Doesn't change much of the outcome in regards to rain for out area but will have ripple effects the rest of the run. But it as well as ICON/CMC have come SE w/ LP. We are a couple moves away from a nice weekend event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, next week is one of those 2014/2015 timing type plays. A couple significant but relatively brief cold intrusions with active flow has been our friend since 2013. We could line things up and get 3+ events or be outside the margins and strike out. I don't have any guesses better than what everyone has already posted. Being March and having strong thermal boundaries/baroclinic zones nearby could turn a typical shortwave into an atypical outcome. I think the spacing means the early week is likely just boundary waves like you say. I do think there is the chance for a major amplification later next week if the northern branch digs enough on the tail of the trough as the pattern see saws before the trough pulls back to the west. That’s kind of a typical way we score on the back end of a blocking regime. The blocking is centered on the epo side but it can and has worked. 8 minutes ago, LP08 said: GFS at 120 went from a 988 low into Canada to a 1007 over Pittsburgh. Doesn't change much of the outcome but will have ripple effects the rest of the run. Was wondering when the gfs would cave. It’s been by itself with that idea for days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 GEM with the storm on the 6th. Very nice. Gfs is south and fv3 is souther on the 6th. Don’t mind being where we are right now. 3 chances in the next 9 days of someone getting accumulating snow in our sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 50 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Bob is back. Something is brewing. Game on boys! It's not a shutout pattern and reminds me of ways we've seen multiple events in recent years. That + the fact that we've done unusually well with the few legitimate ops we've had since the beginning of the year definitely has my interest. I'm not tracking close like many though. If something breaks through the d5 barrier I'll be all in. Until then it's just nice to be in the game as the climo door slowly closes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 12z GFS has the storm for the 6th, but ends up staying to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 CMC shows a nice little snow event for Virginia on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 CMC on the 6th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Gfs jumping the surface low way out in front of the upper level support again lol. #typicalgfscrap 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs jumping the surface low way out in front of the upper level support again lol. #typicalgfscrap GFS and CMC tied for the poorest performers recently. I like to see the trends on the UkMet soon. Plus, the Euro and EPS will tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Looking that way with typical lead time caveats. Discrete windows have been really friendly this year even if few and far between. Considering there are 2 half decent windows the first week of March, I'd go with over 50/50 chances but only the second chance has potential to "wow" anyone. thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Gfs jumping the surface low way out in front of the upper level support again lol. #typicalgfscrap Jb101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 It’s interesting that we potentially have our most active window for winter weather this winter setting up for the first week in March. These threats are quickly starting to show up in the elusive medium range too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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