psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, luckyamaha said: That Monster EPO your talking about is a major failure for the pattern. tilted the wrong way and a different direction in order to give us a trought in the east. Same pattern we have been stuck in since late Dec early Jan, So will end up with what another 2 days of cooler than average temps. No Significant Blocking going on either in the NAO so i dont see anything more than the same as cutters and sliders for the MA. My intention was not trolling by any means it was to just move on from this winter and look to spring past 1st weekend of March. You should just stick to the substance-less trolling and not try to pretend you have any idea what you're talking about. There is nothing wrong with the epo ridge as depicted on those frames I posted. There is NAO blocking on those panels I posted...the next 5 days...it then breaks down but that often happens BEFORE we get a snow threat. Additionally we can snow without a -NAO...we have plenty of times this year. You also kind of imply this year has been nothing but fail when in reality we have had a decent amount of snow, some places are above climo...it might not have been the epic year some wanted but it hasn't been a disaster anywhere in this sub. Finally..."more of the same" can't apply because this isn't a look we have had really most of the winter. Before you can even attempt to understand where we are going lets look at where we have been. We had a pretty good pattern in November into Early December and had that prevailed most of the winter we probably would have had that epic season...but lets start with the second half of December. This was the only truly awful shutout pattern all winter. We had the opposite pac pattern as what we want. Huge +EPO and a ridge south of it...basically amplifying and directing the pacific jet straight across into the CONUS. PAC PUKE PATTERN. But nothing like this upcoming pattern. January The EPO was actually "OK" in January... but the issue there was the WAR. There you go @Ralph Wiggum you nailed one of the months. It wasn't a bad look overall... there is enough there to work with and that is why everyone in here saw snow in January and MOST ended up with an above climo month. The DC area even got lucky with the one really big storm of the season to hit north of Richmond. But that WAR there, and not just a WAR but a WAR on steroids, right where we would ideally want a 50/50 low, took what would have been a pretty darn good pattern otherwise and made it mediocre and caused all those cutters. The EPO was NOT the problem. February There was no -EPO in February, that is a north Pac ridge there and you can see what a ridge there does to the jet and why that is bad. We need the ridge to extend into western North America and be centered east of that look there to do us any good. We lost the WAR and the Atlantic has been pretty good most of the month but that north PAC ridge just killed us. Again...the atlantic was good enough to get us SOME snow...but the PAC ridge prevented it from being a good pattern. The look coming up doesn't look much like any of the 3 dominant patterns we have had. 2/3 patterns we had weren't that bad...they just never became that good either and we had high expectations...but you talk about it as if we have had no snow and "this will just be more of the same"? More of what same...many in here are near or above climo snowfall right now. And the rest of us have all had at least some snow. So what are you talking about? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, luckyamaha said: That Monster EPO your talking about is a major failure for the pattern. tilted the wrong way and a different direction in order to give us a trought in the east. Same pattern we have been stuck in since late Dec early Jan, So will end up with what another 2 days of cooler than average temps. No Significant Blocking going on either in the NAO so i dont see anything more than the same as cutters and sliders for the MA. My intention was not trolling by any means it was to just move on from this winter and look to spring past 1st weekend of March. Now I will show you why your wrong about that epo look being a problem. It's not the most perfect pattern I would pick if I could draw up the best way to get snow. Centering the blocking on the NAO side would be better...but that look has worked before. It has failed sometimes also...but we can fail in even the most perfect west based NAO block also...not every good pattern ends up with snow on the ground. Here are some examples of similar patterns that did work. A few BIG storms...and then some more typical but good ones. No 2 looks are every exactly the same but these are all pretty close. Probably the best example of March cold and snow came from a very similar look this the one coming up. 1960 Obviously 1993 is another example that lead to a monster storm February 2006 a similarly centered EPO ridge worked with with a pretty good storm And there were a couple other years where this type of pattern simply lead to a decent snowfall... 2 moderate snows early in 1996 that amounted to 7.5" in Baltimore, and one 5" storm in 1978. Finally... you said this look is not good to get a trough in the east... again what are you talking about. Right now ALL the guidance is dumping a pretty darn cold trough into the east next week. The bigger issue looks to be suppression right now. I am not sure if NC ends up with a snowstorm that you can say the problem was "no trough in the east". Maybe this progression with change and turn into a massive fail but right now EVERYTHING indicates its going to be pretty cold day 8-14. Maybe we get snow out of it...maybe not...but the epo isn't the problem. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 4 hours ago, cbmclean said: I appreciate your time. So when people talk about NS or SS shortwaves, they are referring to areas of elevated vorticity? And phasing is when areas of elevated vorticity from north and south approach each other and merge? A shortwave is just a smaller scale wave in the jet..a kink so to speak, usually caused by a cold pool in the mid or upper levels. A lot of times when we are talking about a shortwave its associated with a weaker system like a clipper. Phasing is actually anytime two systems combine but 99 percent of the time when we talk about phasing it is in reference to the northern stream and southern stream combining. Often we talk about that when a southern stream system is approaching and we need the northern stream to interact. Often without the northern stream phasing the stj will get suppressed to our south by the flow of the northern stream. Phasing is when the northern stream becomes synced up with the southern stream system and you end up with one storm being fed by energy in both streams. When we say "vort" we are actually talking about differential positive vorticity advection. Vorticity is a measure of the rotation of air in a location. Counterclockwise rotation is positive vorticity. It's not perfect but the h5 level is often the best to get a quick snapshot of where PVA is greatest. Vorticity advection into an area at 500 mp is usually associated with and conducive for pressure falls at the surface and an amplifying system. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: A shortwave is just a smaller scale wave in the jet..a kink so to speak, usually caused by a cold pool in the mid or upper levels. A lot of times when we are talking about a shortwave its associated with a weaker system like a clipper. Phasing is actually anytime two systems combine but 99 percent of the time when we talk about phasing it is in reference to the northern stream and southern stream combining. Often we talk about that when a southern stream system is approaching and we need the northern stream to interact. Often without the northern stream phasing the stj will get suppressed to our south by the flow of the northern stream. Phasing is when the northern stream becomes synced up with the southern stream system and you end up with one storm being fed by energy in both streams. When we say "vort" we are actually talking about differential positive vorticity advection. Vorticity is a measure of the rotation of air in a location. Counterclockwise rotation is positive vorticity. It's not perfect but the h5 level is often the best to get a quick snapshot of where PVA is greatest. Vorticity advection into an area at 500 mp is usually associated with and conducive for pressure falls at the surface and an amplifying system. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 GFS op close enough for now with the day 10 threat. I haven't totally given up on the weird convoluted setup March 1-2 or the STJ wave March 4 but those both look like a longer shot. The March 6 threat looks to be the best and times up with the pattern relax better. look at the changes from the last run... so I mean no way it could shift north another 100 miles in the next 9 days lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 GFS is trending toward a storm. I'd still worry about this trending west/mixing than missing totally south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Euro puts down 1-3” dc north and west Thursday night/Friday morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Pretty solid -PNA on 0z GFS ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 47 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Euro puts down 1-3” dc north and west Thursday night/Friday morning. Look like another shortwave comes through Friday night into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Eps snow is as high as I've seen all season. 7 inches lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 No disasters or trainwrecks ? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 8 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Forget that it was a deb message, anyone has the right to make the case it won’t snow, but he did it in the least substantive way possible. Who said this has anything to do with it being a Deb post? Though I am a tired of some weather/model illiterate people doing a drive-by just to drop a Deb turd and adding nothing of value this has very little to do with it. What I mostly take issue with is being told to move along as if he/she is some Sainted Pied Piper leading us morons to the promised land. It is really pretty simple here. If you think something is a waste of time then don't partake. But what you sure as hell don't do is come in and play at conversion therapy to those that enjoy this hobby. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 We aren't in El Nino anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just now, luckyamaha said: Stop being butthurt and move on Really? This is your response to be an a**? Trying to tell me what to do once again? Talk about a slow learner. Why are you even in this thread considering you think it is a huge waste of time and have thought so for most of the winter if your posts are any indication. Why don't you go do something you enjoy instead? Like maybe blow up sex dolls, toy action figures or whatever tickles your fancy. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 I'd more excited about the threat if we were coming out of -NAO, vs -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Can we not just play it straight in here today? Maybe not troll for just one day? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Best extended stretch of potential that we've seen the entire season over the next 10 days. Let's finish the season on a good note! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: No disasters or trainwrecks ? Just wait for it... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 2 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Who said this has anything to do with it being a Deb post? Though I am a tired of some weather/model illiterate people doing a drive-by just to drop a Deb turd and adding nothing of value this has very little to do with it. What I mostly take issue with is being told to move along as if he/she is some Sainted Pied Piper leading us morons to the promised land. It is really pretty simple here. If you think something is a waste of time then don't partake. But what you sure as hell don't do is come in and play at conversion therapy to those that enjoy this hobby. As bad as this year has been with the crazy, trolling, and inappropriate attacks, one thing we didn’t have to deal with a lot was the constant whining about long range discussion in the long range thread. A few stupid posts but not much. That was one thing I was thankful to do without. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 The 0600 GFS shows little doubt that cold temperatures are headed this way in the March 3-10 period...possibly VERY cold. And if you're a snow lover, that's the first ingredient. Where it goes from there is anyone's guess at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Percent of EPS members giving College Park, MD > 1, 3, 6, and 12" of snow/sleet during the next 10 days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: We aren't in El Nino anymore. YES you are right, we are Over The Rainbow............. Snow is coming too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 3 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Who said this has anything to do with it being a Deb post? Though I am a tired of some weather/model illiterate people doing a drive-by just to drop a Deb turd and adding nothing of value this has very little to do with it. What I mostly take issue with is being told to move along as if he/she is some Sainted Pied Piper leading us morons to the promised land. It is really pretty simple here. If you think something is a waste of time then don't partake. But what you sure as hell don't do is come in and play at conversion therapy to those that enjoy this hobby. Thank you. You and many others are why most of us come here, to share thoughts and learn about something we love. While not as versed, i try to add info that adds value to the discussion. It really takes from the board when frustrated weenies drop the Deb posts and crawl back to their cave. It "tough" for all of us at varying levels, but we are here because we like chasing snowstorms. You guys put a ton of time into explanations of storms/patterns etc, and its of great value. Keep it up. Looks like we may have a couple week window to land something appreciable here. Would be nice to see the pattern deliver the way its supposed to. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just looked through the eps members. That was one heck of a run. Eps loves the early next week time frame. I counted atleast 10 HECS. No wonder the mean spiked to 7"+ .Alot of misses just to our south too. Great run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Darksky... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 snow soon? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Icon looks nice for Friday, FWIW for a general 1-3 dc north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Icon looks nice for Friday, FWIW. Looks like 1 to 3 for DC north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Icon looks nice for Friday, FWIW for a general 1-3 dc north. Looks like N VA to EZF also gets some snow as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Icon looks nice for Friday, FWIW for a general 1-3 dc north. That's just our appetizer for next week's HECS lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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