Maestrobjwa Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: Lol, 10 days is almost mid-March. Good luck! That's early March, man...10 days includes this week, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Been holding the “it’s happening” gif like forever! Maybe I can break that bad boy out soon? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: All the usual caveats apply.. day 10+ yada, yada, but this is a nice look on the mean. Now we wait for the inevitable incremental DEGRADATION on future runs, lol. The 00z runs this winter have been awful and a constant step back. How many times this winter has Bob woken up to winter being over Every morning it’s the same. Groundhog Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 8 minutes ago, Scraff said: Been holding the “it’s happening” gif like forever! Maybe I can break that bad boy out soon? just do it for the fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 15 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: just do it for the fun Not until our March HECS is locked and loaded. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 FV3 is a gnat's hair from a euro result. As is it's a powder keg with a damp fuse and just doesnt line up perfectly. A little speed adjustment...faster n/s or slower s/s and boom. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 We need to stop wish casting for a snow event. It's most likely over for this year. Teleconnections suck for the area and nothing lives up to 10+days as advertised so then it all goes to crap. Let's just stop it and move on. Everyone to the spring forum. Cya next season. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 12 minutes ago, poolz1 said: FV3 is a gnat's hair from a euro result. As is it's a powder keg with a damp fuse and just doesnt line up perfectly. A little speed adjustment...faster n/s or slower s/s and boom. I hate to go all newbie here but does any on want to accept the challenge of trying to take 30 seconds to educate me a bit about how to interpret this image? I understand the concepts of geopotential height and vorticity. But how do you recognize the shortwave? How do you pick out the northern and southern streams. What is phasing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 14 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I hate to go all newbie here but does any on want to accept the challenge of trying to take 30 seconds to educate me a bit about how to interpret this image? I understand the concepts of geopotential height and vorticity. But how do you recognize the shortwave? How do you pick out the northern and southern streams. What is phasing? Boy, I wish I could feel confident giving you a decent "lesson" but there are others in here that would do a much better job. There are definitely some good resources online if you want to google it. I learned by forcing myself to always look at h5 vort first before the surface and then flip to the surface panels and see how it translates. After enough repetition you start to grasp it. TT is great for this because you can quickly and easily flip between runs and parameters. Others more knowledgeable in here often see small features and changes that I dont see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: I'm totally not curious. It was gonna rain in my yard. On to the the next run. For a time yes, but if that monster upper cut off kept tracking east it could have ended well. March with the crazy amplifications and cut off lows is the one time when wrap around back side snow actually works out more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 29 minutes ago, luckyamaha said: We need to stop wish casting for a snow event. It's most likely over for this year. Teleconnections suck for the area and nothing lives up to 10+days as advertised so then it all goes to crap. Let's just stop it and move on. Everyone to the spring forum. Cya next season. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk This was either a joke or a top 10 garbage post of the year. Sometimes I don’t get sarcasm on here so I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt that this was supposed to be funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 My bet is garbage 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: This was either a joke or a top 10 garbage post of the year. Sometimes I don’t get sarcasm on here so I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt that this was supposed to be funny. Go with your instincts. It was garbage post. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 I said this earlier today, but ENSO is Neutral without El Nino conditions, and general -AAM. However, a Kelvin wave is developing which may warm the subsurface and keep in +Neutral N. Hemisphere conditions territory. The 1996 analog had -EPO around this time. It remained cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 12 minutes ago, Jandurin said: My bet is garbage 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Go with your instincts. It was garbage post. Forget that it was a deb message, anyone has the right to make the case it won’t snow, but he did it in the least substantive way possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 43 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I hate to go all newbie here but does any on want to accept the challenge of trying to take 30 seconds to educate me a bit about how to interpret this image? I understand the concepts of geopotential height and vorticity. But how do you recognize the shortwave? How do you pick out the northern and southern streams. What is phasing? I’ll take a shot. Hopefully one of the experts can point out where I have it wrong. Here is the look at 216. You can see the NS diving into Montana. You can see the SS one over northern Texas. Here they are at 234. The NS is now centered over N Dakota and Iowa. The SS one is centered over GA and SC with energy trailing back through Alabama and Arkansas. Notice how they are close to each other but haven’t yet phased. Here they are at 240. They are beginning to phase. Toggle back to the surface panel to see the effect. The storm will start to bomb out and hook towards the coast. Here they are at 246. Phasing is well underway and you’ll see the storm really bombing out. It just happens to late for us. We need that phase to happen around 222. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I’ll take a shot. Hopefully one of the experts can point out where I have it wrong. Here is the look at 216. You can see the NS diving into Montana. You can see the SS one over northern Texas. Here they are at 234. The NS is now centered over N Dakota and Iowa. The SS one is centered over GA and SC with energy trailing back through Alabama and Arkansas. Notice how they are close to each other but haven’t yet phased. Here they are at 240. They are beginning to phase. Toggle back to the surface panel to see the effect. The storm will start to bomb out and hook towards the coast. Here they are at 246. Phasig is well underway and you’ll see the storm really bombing out. It just happens to late for us. We need that phase to happen around 222. I appreciate your time. So when people talk about NS or SS shortwaves, they are referring to areas of elevated vorticity? And phasing is when areas of elevated vorticity from north and south approach each other and merge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 This looks good for the upcoming storm threat, 18z GFS ensemble mean. Looks a lot like the setup for the last storm across the US. (I would favor earlier phasing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, luckyamaha said: We need to stop wish casting for a snow event. It's most likely over for this year. Teleconnections suck for the area and nothing lives up to 10+days as advertised so then it all goes to crap. Let's just stop it and move on. Everyone to the spring forum. Cya next season. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Those indexes often miss the picture. They are like poor man cheat sheets but cannot replace reading the actual longwave pattern. I don’t know what the indexes say for 3-5 days from now but this looks mighty good to me. Monster epo ridge. 50/50 vortex. West based NAO blocking. Severely fractured and displaced TPV. Trough east of Hawaii to help pump some ridging in the southwest. Way more hostile looks than that have led to snow in the past. Maybe it’s not the most ideal textbook perfect hecs look ever but it’s decent. If you are referring to the indexes in 10 days as the threat happens then that is irrelevant. Big storms often happen once the blocking that set them up breaks down. Without that look day 3-5 we wouldn’t get the whole chain of events that leads to the day 10 threat. But that look is only 3 dats away now and across all guidance. Could the gfs be right and storm one cuts then everything behind it gets suppressed, sure. Could it amp up too much and rain yea. Or maybe we get snow. It’s not a super high probability but no day 10 threat is but if you can’t see the reasons the next 13 days or so might yield snow in the mid Atlantic from that day 3-5 look then you don’t know how to actually analyze a pattern and are misusing indexes. Or you are trolling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, luckyamaha said: We need to stop wish casting for a snow event. It's most likely over for this year. Teleconnections suck for the area and nothing lives up to 10+days as advertised so then it all goes to crap. Let's just stop it and move on. Everyone to the spring forum. Cya next season. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Shut up chuck. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, luckyamaha said: We need to stop wish casting for a snow event. It's most likely over for this year. Teleconnections suck for the area and nothing lives up to 10+days as advertised so then it all goes to crap. Let's just stop it and move on. Everyone to the spring forum. Cya next season. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk buh bye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 3 hours ago, luckyamaha said: We need to stop wish casting for a snow event. It's most likely over for this year. Teleconnections suck for the area and nothing lives up to 10+days as advertised so then it all goes to crap. Let's just stop it and move on. Everyone to the spring forum. Cya next season. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatal What I would LOVE to move on to would be a dry March. If it's not going to snow anymore(a very real possibility), then PLEASE let it be drier than normal. Better yet, bring on a good old fashioned drought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Those indexes often miss the picture. They are like poor man cheat sheets but cannot replace reading the actual longwave pattern. I don’t know what the indexes say for 3-5 days from now but this looks mighty good to me. Monster epo ridge. 50/50 vortex. West based NAO blocking. Severely fractured and displaced TPV. Trough east of Hawaii to help pump some ridging in the southwest. Way more hostile looks than that have led to snow in the past. Maybe it’s not the most ideal textbook perfect hecs look ever but it’s decent. If you are referring to the indexes in 10 days as the threat happens then that is irrelevant. Big storms often happen once the blocking that set them up breaks down. Without that look day 3-5 we wouldn’t get the whole chain of events that leads to the day 10 threat. But that look is only 3 dats away now and across all guidance. Could the gfs be right and storm one cuts then everything behind it gets suppressed, sure. Could it amp up too much and rain yea. Or maybe we get snow. It’s not a super high probability but no day 10 threat is but if you can’t see the reasons the next 13 days or so might yield snow in the mid Atlantic from that day 3-5 look then you don’t know how to actually analyze a pattern and are misusing indexes. Or you are trolling. That Monster EPO your talking about is a major failure for the pattern. tilted the wrong way and a different direction in order to give us a trought in the east. Same pattern we have been stuck in since late Dec early Jan, So will end up with what another 2 days of cooler than average temps. No Significant Blocking going on either in the NAO so i dont see anything more than the same as cutters and sliders for the MA. My intention was not trolling by any means it was to just move on from this winter and look to spring past 1st weekend of March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherLovingDoc Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Hello all. Will someone clarify the next two to three days on wind? Tyvm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 13 minutes ago, luckyamaha said: That Monster EPO your talking about is a major failure for the pattern. tilted the wrong way and a different direction in order to give us a trought in the east. Same pattern we have been stuck in since late Dec early Jan, So will end up with what another 2 days of cooler than average temps. No Significant Blocking going on either in the NAO so i dont see anything more than the same as cutters and sliders for the MA. My intention was not trolling by any means it was to just move on from this winter and look to spring past 1st weekend of March. Ok...don’t know how to read a pattern it is then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok...don’t know how to read a pattern it is then. Not sure I agree with his reading of the pattern but I agree we are essentially same place we have been stuck the entire winter ie chasing a day 10+ unicorn. You cant say the OP is wrong in that regard and that we keep seeing these good looks evaporate. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 31 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not sure I agree with his reading of the pattern but I agree we are essentially same place we have been stuck the entire winter ie chasing a day 10+ unicorn. You cant say the OP is wrong in that regard and that we keep seeing these good looks evaporate. But I'm not sure we've seen this exact look all winter...have we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 30 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not sure I agree with his reading of the pattern but I agree we are essentially same place we have been stuck the entire winter ie chasing a day 10+ unicorn. You cant say the OP is wrong in that regard and that we keep seeing these good looks evaporate. If you both want to be frustrated by "another day 10 threat" fine. But we have had snow this year here from a LOT of those day 10 threats. Frustratingly they didn't turn into the big storms some of us might have been chasing but the DC area has had a LOT of snow events this year and a lot of them showed up as day 10 threats. The day 15 -NAO pattern fail was a big deal all year...but a LOT of the snow threats that made it to day 10 became actual snow on the ground for some of this forum. Additionally, he is wrong in his assessment of the seasonal issues and why it hasn't or might not snow. He either has no idea what he is talking about or is trolling. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: But I'm not sure we've seen this exact look all winter...have we? no 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Sounds like luckyamaha needs to spend some time in this forum: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/30-meteorology-101/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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