The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

[Chris78]

This might be good!

[CAPE]

54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@C.A.P.E.we talked yesterday about how the western dig of the tpv was killing the March 1-2 threat but helping after. What I’m more disappointed is the absolute shred factory setting up behind whatever that first wave ends up doing. We normally score as the cold relaxes not presses.  Our best window would be the 4-8th. But guidance has moved away from anything in the northern stream digging and phaseing and instead just slides the northern stream to the north and acts as a shred factory to anything under it. 

Starting tomorrow I wont have much time to look at the models, which is a good thing lol. Maybe while I am not looking our "go big" event will start to come together. Nice to be surprised sometimes.

[cbmclean]

51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I liked seeing “some” south hits at long range but the gefs is VERY suppressed. Pretty much universal agreement targeting the Carolinas or just squashing the storm completely. I would love the look if I was in NC. We need some changes. 

Oh dear.  I don't want to get tarred, feathered and ridden out of the forum.

[dallen7908]

14 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Oh dear.  I don't want to get tarred, feathered and ridden out of the forum.

Verbatim the 12 UT EURO day-10 storm would be a painful miss for you.  Miller-A up the coast snow west of I-95 in NC ... Banana high etc. 

All in the game for now. 

[showmethesnow]

18 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

This might be good!

 

With this coming in behind it this would probably end up being a beast of a storm. Would love to see what another 24-48 hours later on the run. AS is this would probably bring some decent snows to the cities but north and west and especially the mountains would probably get hammered.

[cbmclean]

4 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Verbatim the 12 UT EURO day-10 storm would be a painful miss for you.  Miller-A up the coast snow west of I-95 in NC ... Banana high etc. 

All in the game for now. 

Yep.  Just happy to see the possibility at this stage.

[stormtracker]

Also it’s not just west of 95 on the Euro. D10 is a hot for pretty much the entire sub forum.  Could mix if the Euro ran after 240. 

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Also it’s noy just west of 95 on the Euro. D10 is a hot for pretty much the entire sub forum.  Could mix if the Euro ran after 240. 

Don't think the cities could expect a clean storm with the setup as is. But I could see that end up being a sleet bomb for the cities after initially picking up a decent amount of snow.

[Ji]

39 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Also it’s not just west of 95 on the Euro. D10 is a hot for pretty much the entire sub forum.  Could mix if the Euro ran after 240. 

weve been stuck on 10 day storm for like 6 straight days

[showmethesnow]

Decent pickup on the EPS snowfall means for the roughly day 10 storm advertised on the Euro. Half the members have 2"+ through at least portions of the corridor and roughly 12 members have 6"+. 3 members have roughly 1 1/2'+.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, Ji said:

weve been stuck on 10 day storm for like 6 straight days

Good things come to those who wait. And if the latest Euro advertised storm were to verify I think it would be well worth the wait for most of the region.

Of course on the other hand the way it has been going it may be next year before those good things come. 

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Decent pickup on the EPS snowfall means for the roughly day 10 storm advertised on the Euro. Half the members have 2"+ through at least portions of the corridor and roughly 12 members have 6"+. 3 members have roughly 1 1/2'+.

At least after the crappy 0z run we are back to the general idea of 12z yesterday for the day 10-12 period. Probably better today actually, as there are more SE hits- the mean 2" line is way down into south-central NC, which is not a bad thing at this range.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Good things come to those who wait. And if the latest Euro advertised storm were to verify I think it would be well worth the wait for most of the region.

Of course on the other hand the way it has been going it may be next year before those good things come. 

November is not that far away.  Lord willing we will be back to fight another day.  

[stormy]

23 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Don't think the cities could expect a clean storm with the setup as is. But I could see that end up being a sleet bomb for the cities after initially picking up a decent amount of snow.

Richmond is transitioning to rain/mix at 240 as 850's rise rapidly in the 95 corridor. D.C. would probably mix later with this fantasy track at 240.  Probably great changes at 00z but if verified as modeled, could be the storm of the winter for many west of the B.R.  as 850's and 925's are crashing over W.Va. and southwest Va. as cold air wraps in. 

[CAPE]

All the usual caveats apply.. day 10+ yada, yada, but this is a nice look on the mean.

Now we wait for the inevitable incremental DEGRADATION on future runs, lol.

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, stormy said:

Richmond is transitioning to rain/mix at 240 as 850's rise rapidly in the 95 corridor. D.C. would probably mix later with this fantasy track at 240.  Probably great changes at 00z but if verified as modeled, could be the storm of the winter for many west of the B.R.  as 850's and 925's are crashing over W.Va. and southwest Va. as cold air wraps in. 

Would really like to see another 48 hours of that run. We would most likely see mixing at least into the cities after the initial snow as the low would attempt to retrograde back towards the deep closed low a 500's. And I believe we are already seeing that at 240 as it looks as if there is the beginnings of a transfer of the low back west. But there is also a good likelihood that the cities would flip back to snow and quite possibly heavy as the extremely cold upper levels/low moved into our region for a capture of the surface low in our region a little later on. 

[frd]

7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Would really like to see another 48 hours of that run. We would most likely see mixing at least into the cities after the initial snow as the low would attempt to retrograde back towards the deep closed low a 500's. And I believe we are already seeing that at 240 as it looks as if there is the beginnings of a transfer of the low back west. But there is also a good likelihood that the cities would flip back to snow and quite possibly heavy as the extremely cold upper levels/low moved into our region for a capture of the surface low in our region a little later on. 

I think the potential is there,  maybe we catch a break and get help out West at this time. This look good. 

 

 

 

[Ji]

All the usual caveats apply.. day 10+ yada, yada, but this is a nice look on the mean.
Now we wait for the inevitable incremental DEGRADATION on future runs, lol.

The 00z runs this winter have been awful and a constant step back. How many times this winter has Bob woken up to winter being over

[stormy]

18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Would really like to see another 48 hours of that run. We would most likely see mixing at least into the cities after the initial snow as the low would attempt to retrograde back towards the deep closed low a 500's. And I believe we are already seeing that at 240 as it looks as if there is the beginnings of a transfer of the low back west. But there is also a good likelihood that the cities would flip back to snow and quite possibly heavy as the extremely cold upper levels/low moved into our region for a capture of the surface low in our region a little later on. 

That's 20/20. At 240 the 850's are falling as far east as Roanoke, but it seems to favor at least a slightly inland track. A Bay runner?

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

All the usual caveats apply.. day 10+ yada, yada, but this is a nice look on the mean.
Now we wait for the inevitable incremental DEGRADATION on future runs, lol.

The 00z runs this winter have been awful and a constant step back. How many times this winter has Bob woken up to winter being over

Probably not as many times as I have woken up to hearing about another train wreck or disaster. 

[Wonderdog]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Probably not as many times as I have woken up to hearing about another train wreck or disaster. 

Yeah, not a good way to start the day.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, stormy said:

That's 20/20. At 240 the 850's are falling as far east as Roanoke, but it seems to favor at least a slightly inland track. A Bay runner?

Really hard to say but I would think at least the eastern shore and would not be surprised to see it as far west as the cities. Doesn't really matter though. I highly doubt it will play out this way anyway. I have come to the conclusion that the weather models are now sentient and they are playing, 'Hold my beer' among themselves as they screw with us.   

[psuhoffman]

43 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

November is not that far away.  Lord willing we will be back to fight another day.  

I might have to retreat and regroup but I never surrender. 

[stormtracker]

55 minutes ago, Ji said:

weve been stuck on 10 day storm for like 6 straight days

Yup. I said that yesterday.  Just 10 days away.  Just 10 days away. 

[Ji]

I might have to retreat and regroup but I never surrender. 

November looks awful on cfs

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I might have to retreat and regroup but I never surrender. 

November looks awful on cfs

Good. Zero snow in November. Then maybe we have a chance.

[MD Snow]

Icon looks interesting dc north for Friday. Even better I 70 north. Improvement over its 12z run. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

weve been stuck on 10 day storm for like 6 straight days

 

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup. I said that yesterday.  Just 10 days away.  Just 10 days away. 

It’s the same threat though.  But the euro has been amplifying the trough more and more which would slow the progression some. That’s not a bad thing. Annoying but not bad. 

The key to getting a strong storm there is to get something on the tail of the trough stretched out to our north to drop in and phase. The gfs just elongates the trough and slides everything across to our north and suppressed. The euro fv3 and ggem all favor digging the northern stream and have a favorable look for a storm imo.  

As for the euro op. That storm was about to go thermal nuclear. Fully phased monster bomb. It’s hard to tell exactly how far west the rain snow line would get.  That storm was going to pull due north as it bombs but at some point the upper energy would catch up and it would take on some east component. Whether it gets to 95 or the blue ridge and then what happens with any wrap around depends on the final track of the h5 low. But this is silly. That was the most amplified of every run and every ensemble. Worrying about a 30-50 mile placement of the rain snow line day 10 is a waste of time. 

I totally get the curiosity and wanting to debate it and wishing we could see what that bomb would have done and most aren’t really worried about it but for anyone who is seriously worried about those details on a day 10 op all I can say is good luck surviving the next week with your sanity intact. 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

It’s the same threat though.  But the euro has been amplifying the trough more and more which would slow the progression some. That’s not a bad thing. Annoying but not bad. 

The key to getting a strong storm there is to get something on the tail of the trough stretched out to our north to drop in and phase. The gfs just elongates the trough and slides everything across to our north and suppressed. The euro fv3 and ggem all favor digging the northern stream and have a favorable look for a storm imo.  

As for the euro op. That storm was about to go thermal nuclear. Fully phased monster bomb. It’s hard to tell exactly how far west the rain snow line would get.  That storm was going to pull due north as it bombs but at some point the upper energy would catch up and it would take on some east component. Whether it gets to 95 or the blue ridge and then what happens with any wrap around depends on the final track of the h5 low. But this is silly. That was the most amplified of every run and every ensemble. Worrying about a 30-50 mile placement of the rain snow line day 10 is a waste of time. 

I totally get the curiosity and wanting to debate it and wishing we could see what that bomb would have done and most aren’t really worried about it but for anyone who is seriously worried about those details on a day 10 op all I can say is good luck surviving the next week with your sanity intact. 

I'm totally not curious. It was gonna rain in my yard. On to the the next run.

[StantonParkHoya]

Lol, 10 days is almost mid-March. Good luck!