RevWarReenactor Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Just now, showmethesnow said: Though our unicorn patterns failed to materialize we did have some periods of decent looks throughout the winter. Okay, that was not my perception reading this thread. PSU and BoB Chill only seemed to get as far as "Meh we could sneak something in here maybe". There was never a time where it was "Amazing pattern right here.. Right now". It was always 10-15 days away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Just now, showmethesnow said: Depends on which you trust more for around the 2'nd. The GEFS or the EPS. The coastal idea is still very much in play on the EPS. Not so much on the GEFS. I know which model I am hugging. Yes it is. I am not giving up on that period at all. Its a week away lol. Heck the late week period still might produce a little something. I was just pointing out the differences on the guidance from a few days ago, which imo, might bode well more so for the following week. One thing is for sure, there will be more changes on the upcoming model cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: As predicted, it is looking like the early March opportunity is quickly fading. Just like all the other 10-15 day opportunities this year. So at this point, I'd say this thread is tracking spring. This winter was also set apart by the fact we lucked are way into events in this area, for most I mean, I know many were not so lucky. Never had a favorable period that lasted longer than what , a week? The relentless Pac jet all winter to the benefit of the Rockies, New Mexico, Las Vegas, the Midwest. Not what you see in a normal Nino. And Bob's commnet about the PDO is part of the issue, as are several regions and sources in the PAC , NH and SH. I don't think it is one thing but several. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 23 minutes ago, Scraff said: I still think we rock a big storm before we put this winter to bed, but has anyone started looking at what next winter might have in store for us? Yes yes. I know. JI probably canceled next winter too, but I was merely curious. Neutral to weak Niño most likely. Pretty much anything from -0.2 to +0.8 looks possible right now but that can always change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 1 minute ago, Mdecoy said: Okay, that was not my perception reading this thread. PSU and BoB Chill only seemed to get as far as "Meh we could sneak something in here maybe". There was never a time where it was "Amazing pattern right here.. Right now". It was always 10-15 days away. We never really had a long sustained good look but we did have multiple windows throughout the winter where the setup was favorable for snow. And in most case we saw snow. Pretty much what we would expect in a typical winter. It was very far from an outright Dog of a winter when you don't even get the brief 3-4 day windows opening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Neutral to weak Niño most likely. Pretty much anything from -0.2 to +0.8 looks possible right now but that can always change. Can? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: The two most common descriptions this year. Degraded Step back I'm ok if I never hear those again Actually if you ignore the fantasy day 10-15 crap the realistic <5 day forecasts generally trended better for us 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Just now, Yeoman said: Actually if you ignore the fantasy day 10-15 crap the realistic <5 day forecasts generally trended better for us My philosophy for checking the weather will always be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 13 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: My philosophy for checking the weather will always be Accuracy 100 % ( disclaimer : unless your blind ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 12 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: My philosophy for checking the weather will always be I just walked out onto the deck in my underwear and socks. Chilly day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 33 minutes ago, frd said: This winter was also set apart by the fact we lucked are way into events in this area, for most I mean, I know many were not so lucky. Never had a favorable period that lasted longer than what , a week? The relentless Pac jet all winter to the benefit of the Rockies, New Mexico, Las Vegas, the Midwest. Not what you see in a normal Nino. And Bob's commnet about the PDO is part of the issue, as are several regions and sources in the PAC , NH and SH. I don't think it is one thing but several. This winter acted more like a La Nina. At least D.C didn't have a terrible winter compared to the other major cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This winter acted more like a La Nina. At least D.C didn't have a terrible winter compared to the other major cities. NYC has had a nice run of above average winters...long island has been on a heater. I don't recall you giving DC sympathy during that stretch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: NYC has had a nice run of above average winters...long island has been on a heater. I don't recall you giving DC sympathy during that stretch I have but others haven't. I want the I-95 corridor to get a huge blizzard. Now when it comes to the Nats it's another story lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: NYC has had a nice run of above average winters...long island has been on a heater. I don't recall you giving DC sympathy during that stretch I’ve actually seen some in the NYC area talking about some “new climate” nonsense as if this is their new normal. Their gonna cry when they get a run like the 1980s again when they had like one 10” storm in a 10 year stretch. They got so spoiled by a fluke run they’ve been on. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Long range still looks fine to me. We’re still outside range for details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: I’ve actually seen some in the NYC area talking about some “new climate” nonsense as if this is their new normal. Their gonna cry when they get a run like the 1980s again when they had like one 10” storm in a 10 year stretch. They got so spoiled by a fluke run they’ve been on. We had a few lucky big snowstorms that caused the area to see above normal snowfall in a bad winter. Feb 2006 Jan 2016 Our normal up here is 27 inches. I will most likely end up with 10 inches if we don't get any more snow. Boston is really hurting right now. They are about 30 inches below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’ve actually seen some in the NYC area talking about some “new climate” nonsense as if this is their new normal. Their gonna cry when they get a run like the 1980s again when they had like one 10” storm in a 10 year stretch. They got so spoiled by a fluke run they’ve been on. That is abnormal at the same time though. I don’t think NYC ever sees a stretch like that again. They went from 2/12/83 until 3/13/93 without one 8 inch or greater snow event. I’m not sure something such as that can be duplicated. They also went from 1/22/87 to 12/28/90 without a 6 inch storm. I think the 80s in New York can be summed up by the Veterans Day 87 and January 1988 snow storms. Both gave Boston and DCA 6 inches of snow and almost nothing to New York. Those are the only storms on record to give Boston and DCA 6 inches and not also bring 6 to New York and they happened 8 weeks apart 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: Neutral to weak Niño most likely. Pretty much anything from -0.2 to +0.8 looks possible right now but that can always change. Thank you for the insight. I’m sure we can work with that. As long as you didn’t say Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 26 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That is abnormal at the same time though. I don’t think NYC ever sees a stretch like that again. They went from 2/12/83 until 3/13/93 without one 8 inch or greater snow event. I’m not sure something such as that can be duplicated. They also went from 1/22/87 to 12/28/90 without a 6 inch storm. I think the 80s in New York can be summed up by the Veterans Day 87 and January 1988 snow storms. Both gave Boston and DCA 6 inches of snow and almost nothing to New York. Those are the only storms on record to give Boston and DCA 6 inches and not also bring 6 to New York and they happened 8 weeks apart Not to be too picky, but Feb 6-7, 2003 was another one. That storm blew up unexpectedly by the time it reached SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Hey everyone let's talk about how awesome NY is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 28 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We had a few lucky big snowstorms that caused the area to see above normal snowfall in a bad winter. Feb 2006 Jan 2016 Our normal up here is 27 inches. I will most likely end up with 10 inches if we don't get any more snow. Boston is really hurting right now. They are about 30 inches below normal. Long island has had an interesting time period for most of this decade so far. Even though when you look back at during DJF and even March, the temps were above normal, it stilled snowed. Also, extreme winter warmth during several seasons followed by huge snowstorms on Long Island. Seems since the last Super Nino things are a bit out of whack, "luck " if you will. The general observation on many events, is when Boston is doing well, portions of Long Island will do well. By the way, did you see Long Island reported the fastest ever jet streak over head. My details my be wrong but it permitted a jet, Vigin Airlines traveling East to go over 800 mph. It set a record for the fastest jet recorded in the US. Again, need to check, but is was a noteworthy event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Hey everyone let's talk about how awesome NY is It really isn't at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Hey everyone let's talk about how awesome NY is 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It really isn't at all https://www.cbsnews.com/news/record-breaking-jet-stream-accelerates-air-travel-el-nino-polar-vortex/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Hey everyone let's talk about how awesome NY is The best pizza and bagels in the history of pizza and bagels. And don’t get me started on the beer scene. Eta: Too bad their winter sucks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, frd said: By the way, did you see Long Island reported the fastest ever jet streak over head. My details my be wrong but it permitted a jet, Vigin Airlines traveling East to go over 800 mph. It set a record for the fastest jet recorded in the US. Again, need to check, but is was a noteworthy event. https://nationalpost.com/news/world/virgin-atlantic-flight-reaches-801-mph-as-a-furious-jet-stream-packs-record-breaking-speeds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: The best pizza and bagels in the history of pizza and bagels. And don’t get me started on the beer scene. Eta: Too bad their winter sucks When my daughters friend comes over form NYC and bring us bagels oh my ..... I jump for joy, I really do, I act like a fool !! They do shame to every bagel place around here that I know of. Watched a video once about all the work it takes to make a really great bagel. The process is prerry methodical and requies a lot of hard work. I am glad I am not following a gluten-free diet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 4 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: In general, the really good h5 pattern the models have been advertising has incrementally degraded. It's still not bad, and I expect the ops will tease more in upcoming runs with something other than cutters, but moving into March we want something more on the anomalous side to get a good winter storm. Look at the difference on the EPS for next Sat from 5 runs ago. 5 runs ago the EPS looked like this- Now it looks like this- Good news is, the (useless) snowfall mean maps look a little better lol. ha thanks. I woke up suddenly around 3am and looked the 00z euro(nothing else)..saw this(in our favored period) and went back to bed ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 29 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That is abnormal at the same time though. I don’t think NYC ever sees a stretch like that again. They went from 2/12/83 until 3/13/93 without one 8 inch or greater snow event. I’m not sure something such as that can be duplicated. They also went from 1/22/87 to 12/28/90 without a 6 inch storm. I think the 80s in New York can be summed up by the Veterans Day 87 and January 1988 snow storms. Both gave Boston and DCA 6 inches of snow and almost nothing to New York. Those are the only storms on record to give Boston and DCA 6 inches and not also bring 6 to New York and they happened 8 weeks apart The 80s into 90s might be extreme wrt individual storms but NYC has had plenty of other bad snowfall periods. And this past stretch since 2003 has been just ridiculous. 9/16 years above 40” long term avg says they should be 2/3. 11 30”+ years and that should be ~5. History suggests nyc will revert to that avg. From 1924-1933 was pretty bad without a single 40” season. From 1924 to 1947 there was only 1 40” year! From 1950-1955 not one 20” season! The 1970s only had one 30”+ winter. So maybe NYC never has another 10 years without a 8” storm but they will have a 10 year stretch without any or more than 1 40” winters...or 3+ consecutive years without 20”. History says that will happen. And the nyc people I know will go crazy. They act like they are the grandfather creators of snow and entitled to every storm now. I might too if I was on the heater they are just saying the fall will hurt when it happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 4 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: The two most common descriptions this year. Degraded Step back I'm ok if I never hear those again We used to get pummelled with nuke jobs, now we have degraded, stepped back and absconded into merely a beatdown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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