psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Or as Yoder would say, its decent. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 minute ago, Fozz said: Legend? Here ya go Fozz 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I find the FV3 an acceptable way to end this winter. Its okay... but Ji may lose it next run when it takes away 10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There are some characteristics regarding the depth of the warm anomalies and the current wind burst that COULD imply we get another nino next year. But we are WAY WAY WAY too far out to get into that yet. Even if we did get another nino... what type, central/east based, what strength? and both those answers matter a lot to our snowfall prospects which is what most care about here. Exactly, need to get through the spring barrier and see what things look like in late summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 37 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Lol I would love to see the snowmap on that. Too bad it doesn’t go out far enough no idea what formula goes into making the snow depth map on FV3 but here ya go (this was the best looking panel) 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 I hope the runs starting locking down a particular threat by the end of this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 I cant believe the FV3 only gives me 25 inches and 50 miles to the west gets 41.3 inches. I hope I can still say this in 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 9 minutes ago, Fozz said: Legend? 9 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Or as Yoder would say, its decent. We take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 hour ago, HighStakes said: He actually posted this morning about it again. Grand planetary wave. He's all in. He is a grand planetary blowhard 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Wow, to the warmth extending North in the Atlantic . A 122 record broken in Aberdeenshire. Not sure the consequence of this or the next two ocean storms next week. I really like to see some sort of -NAO but maybe we do not need it , some mets are saying it would help next week to achieve some sort of -NAO, , others say it is not needed and the other 1/3 camp are sort of mixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 minute ago, Fozz said: We take abscond 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 6 minutes ago, AdamHLG said: I cant believe the FV3 only gives me 25 inches and 50 miles to the west gets 41.3 inches. I hope I can still say this in 7 days. I'm pretty sure it gives you over 30. Anyways, what a legendary run. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Might want to swap the legend meanings for yellow and red... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 6 minutes ago, AdamHLG said: I cant believe the FV3 only gives me 25 inches and 50 miles to the west gets 41.3 inches. I hope I can still say this in 7 days. Since I am in that area west of you...me too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Bob made a good point in the other thread we should remember...the pattern is favorable for storms early March, but having the blocking centered in the EPO domain and extending east vs in the NAO domain extending west...means the flow will be more progressive across the CONUS and there will be more variability wrt any storm track near the east coast. So this is not the kind of pattern where storms are likely to lock in on guidance at long leads. That doesn't mean we can't win here...we have had snowy March's from a similar EPO based blocking pattern in 1960, 1965, 1978, 1984, 1993, 1996, 2014, and 2015. There were even a few blockbuster storms in there in 1960 and 1993 and we just missed a HECS that fringed us to the south in 1980 which was another close pattern match. It's a pretty good pattern to get snow in March BUT not one we will likely be able to get a really good read on any specific threat at long range. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 The h5 for those months I mentioned above...there are some similarities 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 EURO has a clipper Day 6/7 that drops a T-1", FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 If (lol) the FV3 verifies, I'll hold a get together at my house in McHenry during the storm. 4'?! Gotta file that one away in the digital thread history books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Oh boy. You guys better do some tough mental exercises. After this winter so far, I don't think some have any mental gas left to ride what is looking to be a 10-day emotional rollercoaster. My son was born during the March 3rd 2014 snowstorm. It would be cool to have one 5 years later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 GEFS really dropped the hammer this run with cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 GEFS has 3 waves to watch around March 2nd, 5th, and 8th. All 3 look to track under us along the gulf coast and turn up. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: GEFS has 3 waves to watch around March 2nd, 5th, and 8th. All 3 look to track under us along the gulf coast and turn up. I’m extrapolating a 12z euro HECS D11-12. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 @frd regarding enso, this will be part of my end of year retrospective but since you were talking about a possible nino next year thought I would throw it out there. What we really want is a moderate/strong modoki/central based Nino. Anything else really doesn't do it for us. I went through and filtered out all the nino years by modoki/traditional and strength (and I used the older traditional modoki classification where if the nino originated in the central PAC and propagated east before regressing westward it was modoki regardless if it took on basin wide characteristics for a time as most do). Here are the findings and snowfall for BWI Weak Modoki years using January: 1959, 1969, 1978, 1980, 1995, 2005, 2015. Average snowfall 18.05" Moderate/strong Modoki years: 1958, 1964, 1966, 1987, 1992, 2003, 2010. Average snowfall 43.14. The only one that wasn't a historic winter was 1992 and most agree the eruption of Pinatubo significantly changed the patterns that year. Weak Traditional nino: 1952, 1954, 1970, 1977, 2007: avg snowfall 15.86" Moderate: 1988 yea only one year lol, don't know what to make of that. Snowfall 20.4" Strong: 1973, 1983, 1998, 2016: avg 18.78" but with an obvious trend...2 of those years had one HECS and the other 2 did not and we got almost no snow in those. But the bottom line is the only type of nino that is actually good for us and raises our average snowfall above climo is a moderate/strong modoki. Keep that in mind going forward. Regarding this year...looks like this modoki weak fell into line with what I SHOULD have been expecting. Weak modoki tend to be variable but none were blockbusters...a few were duds, but many of them were basically what this year has been...meh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m extrapolating a 12z euro HECS D11-12. That is the one the gefs is the most interested in. There are a “few” hits with the day 8/9 and 14/15 waves but it really likes the day 11/12 period. Fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Might want to swap the legend meanings for yellow and red... "Broken Arrow" lots of late nights if we get within 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m extrapolating a 12z euro HECS D11-12. You weren’t kidding. That day 10 screams “incoming”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Came back to 50+ posts and was like what the hell, something is going on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You weren’t kidding. That day 10 screams “incoming”. And matches up with the FV3 fantasy storm. Perhaps both pointing to the same possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Deer Whisperer said: no idea what formula goes into making the snow depth map on FV3 but here ya go (this was the best looking panel) Admit it -- you took the snow map for Jan 2016 and photoshopped the header for March 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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