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Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?


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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@CarlislePaWx You should be in on the action soon...

Sorry for the delay...was taking a longer-than-expected Sunday afternoon nap.

The ramp-up began around 4:40 and my peak gust so far was 35mph at 5:27 and another gust to 30 at 5:46.  Yeah, this seems to just be the beginning of a long night.  No power problems here yet.  Our electric lines are underground so we tend not to have problems hardly ever except for the occasional flicker during thunderstorms.  We'll see.

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1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Sorry for the delay...was taking a longer-than-expected Sunday afternoon nap.

The ramp-up began around 4:40 and my peak gust so far was 35mph at 5:27 and another gust to 30 at 5:46.  Yeah, this seems to just be the beginning of a long night.  No power problems here yet.  Our electric lines are underground so we tend not to have problems hardly ever except for the occasional flicker during thunderstorms.  We'll see.

Mine are as well. For whatever reason that hasn't resulted in a lack of outages in the past. 

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I don't have much of a sample size of big wind events in this neighborhood since moving into my new house June 2017. So I guess I'll see what this one does, it's definitely blowing pretty good outside. 

Since it didn't get above 35ºF all weekend until like 10-11am this morning, I still have 100% snowpack coverage in the yard. Quick measurement braving the wind outside has about 6" south side of the house and 7" on the north side. 

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CTP near term:

Quote

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Strong, damaging winds will buffet the region tonight,
as we remain in tight pressure gradient south of intense low
over the Grt Lks. Strong subsidence associated with cold advection
and resulting steep lapse rates should contribute to occasional
gusts in the 50-60kt range overnight. Surface observations
early this evening are showing peak gusts to around 50kts from
central Pa westward to near Chicago, so this looks to be a
fairly long duration wind event. In addition, ASOS doesn`t
capture true peak gusts, but rather 5 second averages. Research
in this area indicates true 1 second peak gusts are 20% higher.
An examination of Bufkit soundings show the best mixing
occurring after about 03Z, when gusts of around 60kts appear
possible in some spots, mainly over south central Pa.

Light, lake enhanced, orographic snow will continue to fall over
the northwest mountains overnight. A frozen Lake Erie will
limit accumulations and latest model qpf supports totals just
shy of the 3 inch advisory criteria. However, a winter wx
advisory remains up for the combined effects of snow and blowing
snow.

The combination of falling temps and strong winds will push wind
chills to around zero late tonight over the Allegheny Plateau
and down to the mid teens over the Lower Susq Valley. Actual
lows should range from the upper teens north to upper 20s
southeast.

 

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3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z Euro Op on day 10 looks like it might have delivered what you mentioned if we got to see day 11...

 

 

Blizz, 

 

I am with you in watching next week for snow.  I was really hoping the pattern would ease a bit and let the slug of moisture, in the SE, come up Wed but now looking like Friday is our better bet.  I did get a lesson on how the weather most of us love to talk about can turn bad.  Been watching a duck at a local pond over the last two weeks as he seemingly could not walk anymore and was mostly using his wings to move himself around.  We grabbed him Friday with the intention of taking him to the vet and possibly getting a split and letting him heal assuming he had a broken leg...turns out the days where it got below zero gave his feet severe frostbite and he would never be able to walk again so my rescue turned into a very sad evening where we had to make the decision to allow the vet to euthanize him instead of letting him loose again for what would have eventully been a terrible death to a predator.  So my vote is for snow and 25 not snow and -5.

 

 

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53 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Blizz, 

 

I am with you in watching next week for snow.  I was really hoping the pattern would ease a bit and let the slug of moisture, in the SE, come up Wed but now looking like Friday is our better bet.  I did get a lesson on how the weather most of us love to talk about can turn bad.  Been watching a duck at a local pond over the last two weeks as he seemingly could not walk anymore and was mostly using his wings to move himself around.  We grabbed him Friday with the intention of taking him to the vet and possibly getting a split and letting him heal assuming he had a broken leg...turns out the days where it got below zero gave his feet severe frostbite and he would never be able to walk again so my rescue turned into a very sad evening where we had to make the decision to allow the vet to euthanize him instead of letting him loose again for what would have eventully been a terrible death to a predator.  So my vote is for snow and 25 not snow and -5.

 

 

Sorry to hear about the duck !

I’m interested to see what the models show tonight for Friday & next week. I’m hoping that we score a few inches of snow on Friday, while we are tracking a blockbuster winter storm for next week!

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I dont know if we are getting any systems to move through are area. but on the bright side the temps 2 days ago for my area were all mid 40s. then a few 50s a week plus out. now they are mostly 30s a few 40s then 1 day of 50 and rain. so bright side temps are going to be good for snow esp overnight in the low 20s

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5 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Thanks for posting that...I was curious how hard she was blowing last night. Mid-50s gusts down here in Lanco, sounds like the models were pretty much spot on. Nice to know they do well with winds. :) 

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Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

LWX has a couple gusts in the 75-80 mph range in PNS.  Lots of damage down this way with multiple reports of trees and wires down.   Route 30 has been closed since midnight in the Caledonia area for trees down.  Also reports of trees into houses and a roof blown off a house 

 

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Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

LWX has a couple gusts in the 75-80 mph range.   Lots of damage down this way with multiple reports of trees and wires down.   Route 30 has been closed since midnight in the Caledonia area for trees down.  Also reports of trees into houses and and a roof blown off as well

Oh my. :( 55 mph winds is fairly "typical" of high wind events in this area...but when you're up at hurricane force well...that's a frightening situation. I sincerely hope no one has been injured. 

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7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Oh my. :( 55 mph winds is fairly "typical" of high wind events in this area...but when you're up at hurricane force well...that's a frightening situation. I sincerely hope no one has been injured. 

Yes impressive, during the highest winds the direction was SW which isn’t great for my anemometer setup.   I only captured a few gusts in the 40’s but I’m estimating 60mph.   The ground was so saturated plus there were a few ice storms that may have weakened a few trees so it magnified the event.   

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