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Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?


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13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Getting close to peak heating now but just reached 52.6 and climbing rapidly...

58 here now but just checked the Wundermap and other than a few mid 50's, LSV holding on to its inversion/CAD and most mid 40's north and 45-50 south.  Maybe another hour of sun heating but seems a safe bet no one in the LSV gets up to 58.  You climbing 6 in the next hour would seem like a lot.   A Bubbler Blunder thinking York and Lancaster would make it. 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

58 here now but just checked the Wundermap and other than a few mid 50's, LSV holding on to its inversion/CAD and most mid 40's north and 45-50 south.  Maybe another hour of sun heating but seems a safe bet no one in the LSV gets up to 58.  You climbing 6 in the next hour would seem like a lot.   A Bubbler Blunder thinking York and Lancaster would make it. 

I have pretty much full sun now but have actually backed off to 50.4. Fail on my part. :) 

 

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Both the GFS and the NAM nailed the CAD-like scenario for our temps this afternoon.  I'm currently at 44.6 which is my high of the day.  They showed most of us remaining in the 40's at best for highs with the only exceptions being southern border counties which they took into the 50's.  Epic fail for ECMWF in the temp department.  I have to remember we're now an hour later for model runs.  Yuck.

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1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Both the GFS and the NAM nailed the CAD-like scenario for our temps this afternoon.  I'm currently at 44.6 which is my high of the day.  They showed most of us remaining in the 40's at best for highs with the only exceptions being southern border counties which they took into the 50's.  Epic fail for ECMWF in the temp department.  I have to remember we're now an hour later for model runs.  Yuck.

Just hit 43 which is my high for the day.  #Torching 

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16 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Both the GFS and the NAM nailed the CAD-like scenario for our temps this afternoon.  I'm currently at 44.6 which is my high of the day.  They showed most of us remaining in the 40's at best for highs with the only exceptions being southern border counties which they took into the 50's.  Epic fail for ECMWF in the temp department.  I have to remember we're now an hour later for model runs.  Yuck.

Yea no model watching for me until November because of it.

END THE TIME CHANGE DAMNIT.

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3 minutes ago, canderson said:

Yea no model watching for me until November because of it.

END THE TIME CHANGE DAMNIT.

It's so funny you just mentioned the time change.  I was trying to figure out whether or not to get into the whole thing with the gov't trying to push us into year-round daylight saving time.  I hate the idea for a host of reasons.  The biggest reason is the safety of children traveling to school and/or bus stops during December and January.  If we're on DST that means the sun doesn't rise until 8:30 AM and there is total darkness until approximately 7:50 AM.  NO WAY!  So, if the government does manage to pass that law then states can individually opt out of year-long DST, but that means year-long standard time.  No more partial standard / partial DST.  I would be totally fine with sacrificing longer daylight in the summertime since it doesn't matter to me when it gets dark.  So, the sun sets here at 7:40 instead of 8:40.  You'd still have a level of daylight until 8:00pm.  The farmers would be ecstatic as the sun would now rise at 4:45 AM in June with the first hints of daylight at about 4:10AM.  Good for them.  They deserve it!  And, finally, for us weenies, we would have year-round models coming out earlier instead of just winter time...especially the Euro still coming out around 1:15am instead of the now 2:15am.  I already read that someone in the PA house legislature has introduced a bill to both opt-out of year-round DST and to switch to year-round standard time.  That's my 2 cents.

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1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Both the GFS and the NAM nailed the CAD-like scenario for our temps this afternoon.  I'm currently at 44.6 which is my high of the day.  They showed most of us remaining in the 40's at best for highs with the only exceptions being southern border counties which they took into the 50's.  Epic fail for ECMWF in the temp department.  I have to remember we're now an hour later for model runs.  Yuck.

The problem with giving the GFS credit is that it showed you in the mid to upper 50's for today on yesterday's 12Z run.  

image.png.1146bbac41529a9eb2d34c96602b61fa.png

 

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8 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Agreed Brian. I'm still very much hopeful but far less bullish than I was a week ago. We'll see. (and like you, I'm not into a 1" -3" deal, we're in big game season now)

Sun has just broken through here. I'm going to bust low (go figure) on my call for 58 at MDT today...it will be interesting to see how the temperature responds over the next several hours. 

I saw 48 at 2 pm and went back down to 46.

GFS wins as the Euro had 60 showing up. 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

The problem with giving the GFS credit is that it showed you in the mid to upper 50's for today on yesterday's 12Z run.  

image.png.1146bbac41529a9eb2d34c96602b61fa.png

 

3 days ago it was all but spot on when we were throwing out thoughts out. I figured kpit might get near 60.  it and the NAM showed the similar look.  

 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Did not look at the EC but the Icon, Canadian, and GFS have 55-65 next Thursday and 60-70 on Friday then FV3 and Canadian are closes to coastals on the 18th-20th.  

The Ops will catch on soon to our winter storm chances around the 20th. The ensembles have already been onboard for several days.

I think we will have at least one more good round of winter tracking for next week.

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