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Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?


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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Quite the ice storm for parts of SW, North and NE PA tomorrow night on the 12Z Nam.  Fairly large areas of 1/2" or more of ice.  Some snow as well (map 2). 

 

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What's the timing for that? Doing an Atlantic City charter tomorrow, and will likely be getting back to Hazleton/Tamaqua after sunset.

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4 minutes ago, Voyager said:

What's the timing for that? Doing an Atlantic City charter tomorrow, and will likely be getting back to Hazleton/Tamaqua after sunset.

Quoting the NAM, it would be snowing or freezing rain in Hazleton at midnight but not as early as sunset.  Either way the temps are near freezing during the precip so doubt the roads are too bad vs. power lines and such. GFS is not as bad but still some frozen. 

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16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Quoting the NAM, it would be snowing or freezing rain in Hazleton at midnight but not as early as sunset.  Either way the temps are near freezing during the precip so doubt the roads are too bad vs. power lines and such. GFS is not as bad but still some frozen. 

Thanks! Probably getting back into the region around 8-9pm. I don't yet know my departure time from AC. Probably 5 or 6pm.

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5 minutes ago, daxx said:

Euro still getting lsv into the mid 60s Sunday afternoon. Which model will win the temp battle for Sunday? 

GFS is pretty close to the Euro as well with low 60's.  Not sure that gives the Euro any extra credence.  

 

I wonder if they will need to do a WSW for the Northeast corner of PA say Williamsport east?  The Canadian Hi Res also shows quite the winter mess there...2-4" of snow followed by ice.  What does the Euro show up there now?  

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS is pretty close to the Euro as well with low 60's.  Not sure that gives the Euro any extra credence.  

 

I wonder if they will need to do a WSW for the Northeast corner of PA say Williamsport east?  The Canadian Hi Res also shows quite the winter mess there...2-4" of snow followed by ice.  What does the Euro show up there now?  

It does show some snow there to start. Surface temps are definitely close there. Low 30s in the northeastern part of state.  I would say advisory for sure up that way. Definitely more north and east of Williamsport. 

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9 minutes ago, daxx said:

It does show some snow there to start. Surface temps are definitely close there. Low 30s in the northeastern part of state.  I would say advisory for sure up that way. Definitely more north and east of Williamsport. 

Here is the RDPS output for snow and ice.  So a bit of a difference it sounds like.  HRDPS has even more snow and why I mentioned WSW but the map I looked at was TT so do not want to post a TT snow map.  Either way I agree that temps are not overly cold.  

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22 minutes ago, daxx said:

The nam has Harrisburg at 49 at 21z Sunday.The Euro has Harrisburg at 66 on 21z Sunday. Only a 17 degree difference.

Like i said yesterday....one model is gonna have some serious egg on its server :lol:

I'm betting on NAM being right, and we MAY crack 50.  If Im wrong, I'll take my eggs scrambled please.

 

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2 hours ago, Gosnow said:

Anything on the long range to look forward to? It was mentioned perhaps one more hurrah in late March or is that off the table?

Yes, Ensemble guidance continues to look like a window opens from 3/17 to maybe 3/23 or thereabouts.  Nice PNA ridge and trough in the east.  With wavelengths shortening and warm press starting, that can lead to fun times.

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7 minutes ago, daxx said:

Yea 3k is showing 55 at 21z.

warmest panel on 12k.  Its gonna be real close for sure.  50 miles may be quite a difference as to what surface temps one has.  I could hit your number while Voyager is trapped in the 40's.  I could see Kpit dude givin the 6 0 a go tho yo.

namconus_T2m_us_42.png

 

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