Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

That's so funny.  Each year, on the first day of summer, I remind my wife that the only good thing about the day is that the days start getting shorter.  Although, I must also say that I love autumn, probably a little more than winter as I get older and increasingly dislike the really cold stuff.

I guess I'm odd. (okay...let that one ride please) I'm 53 and embrace the cold more and more with each passing year. Autumn is good for PSU football and the inevitable march into cold and snow. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I guess I'm odd. (okay...let that one ride please) I'm 53 and embrace the cold more and more with each passing year. Autumn is good for PSU football and the inevitable march into cold and snow. 

I thought it funny thet Carlisle mentioned liking the cold less with age (I do as well, especially the wind as well as a wet/humid cold) as when it gets down to abnormally low temps he is seemingly invigorated post wise and has updates much more often!

 

 

[CarlislePaWx]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I thought it funny thet Carlisle mentioned liking the cold less with age (I do as well, especially the wind as well as a wet/humid cold) as when it gets down to abnormally low temps he is seemingly invigorated post wise and has updates much more often!

 

 

Haha.  Ok, the truth in that statement lies in the fact that from the comfort of the inside of my house I get excited when the temps drop into the single digits only because they don't do it that often, and sub-zero temps might only be experienced for a period of hours during an entire winter season.  It's the rarity that makes it exciting, not the reality.  

[Itstrainingtime]

One sign that winter is about done...there hasn't been a single post in the MD/VA forum (any thread) in over 30 minutes. Depressing...

[pasnownut]

37 minutes ago, daxx said:

You better get with it dude only 201 days until fall! Lol

hehe.

I'm still young enough to bounce back.  I'll be ready bud.  No worries.

having a few more voices chiming in this year has been nice.  Looking forward to it.

 

[pasnownut]

36 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I got razzed this morning for telling my team how many days are left until the summer solstice and the march down to shorter days and winter! 

I like it....

I've had fbombs thrown at me with my love of snow....

I giggle my ass off when they do.....

[pasnownut]

36 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Despite all the analogs and teleconnections, I consistently saw two things that usually don’t bode well if you want a prolific winter season in the east:

1. LES continuing all season long off Lake Erie. That shuts off in late December or January in our good winter seasons....pressing cold.

2. Feet upon feet upon feet of snow in California. Too much PAC.


.

Agreed.  Pac has proven to be one of if not the biggest driver of what we get in the east.  If its bad there's only 1 or 2 ways out (snow wise), if its good, its a LOT easier and there are more than a couple ways to score in the east.  

[Superstorm]

I guess I'm odd. (okay...let that one ride please) I'm 53 and embrace the cold more and more with each passing year. Autumn is good for PSU football and the inevitable march into cold and snow. 

I like extreme weather. So seeing it dip below zero is exciting. However, in general I like the cold only because it is needed for snow. I am a regional engineer responsible for plants between Virginia and Montreal and Buffalo to New Hampshire. And ALL of my plants do not use heat. Montreal in the heart of winter is absolutely brutal.

 

If it didn’t snow, give me San Diego weather.

 

 

.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

I like extreme weather. So seeing it dip below zero is exciting. However, in general I like the cold only because it is needed for snow. I am an regional engineer responsible for plants between Virginia and Montreal and Buffalo to New Hampshire. And ALL of my plants do not use heat. Montreal in the heart of winter is absolutely brutal.

If it didn’t snow, give me San Diego weather.


.

I have Prima Donna users who complain because I tell them to reboot their computers occasionally and your folks have no heat.  LOL.  Talk about different views on work life.

 

[MAG5035]

45 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Despite all the analogs and teleconnections, I consistently saw two things that usually don’t bode well if you want a prolific winter season in the east:

1. LES continuing all season long off Lake Erie. That shuts off in late December or January in our good winter seasons....pressing cold.

2. Feet upon feet upon feet of snow in California. Too much PAC.


.

It wasn't a particularly prolific LES season off of Erie. Remember Erie, PA had it's snowiest winter on record last year. Lake Erie has generally been iced over for the most part since late January and while that might be a little later than usual, the Great Lakes as a whole has quietly had the most ice coverage since frigid 2014-2015. The Lakes as of today have 74.2% ice coverage, which is quite impressive for early March. I mean yea typically you can correlate our cold snowy winters with blockbuster storms to the significant ice coverage in the Lakes but it usually is attributed to a dominant +PNA and/or -NAO regime.. which we had neither of this winter. 

To go with that, here's an animation of the max ice cover in the Great Lakes per year since 1973. There's been more year to year variability in coverage in the last 20 years. 

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/historicalAnim/

 

 

 

[MAG5035]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

yeah its been an "interesting" year for snow.  We've gone the "non traditional" route many times.  Unfortunately, it will likely give pause to any slam dunk "winter of 2020" forecasts, but its way to early to prognosticate nino/nina as we are neutralish right now -  although i've not looked for some time, so that may be off base. 

In truth, i really dont care about next year right now.  Still feel the burn of what was to be a banner one - no matter how we've scratched our way towards climo, its not been easy.

As many winter forecasts as I saw this winter that seemed to target the Mid-Atl/NE I-95 corridor for the biggest snows this winter, the setup for disappointment was already there in that regard. I think a lot of people hinged on seeing major North Atlantic blocking for a change, which didn't happen. We don't necessarily need a -NAO to succeed in this region but it becomes a lot more important in that region as a good -NAO pattern (esp coupled with a +PNA) helps to suppress storms and track them in a manner that targets the I-95 corridor, which can often be to the detriment of at least some of us in here of course. The funny part is that you look at big portions of lower VA and NC and they have had an above average winter from the Dec and Jan storms that missed us, which were the two brief times we had a suppressed storm track (esp with that Dec storm).

MJO was a big influence this winter, and it ran through the 4-6 phases not once but twice (Dec and Jan). We finally have it running in a more classic fashion through the whole 8-1-2-3 end coupled with the crash in the SOI the last several weeks and we finally got the pattern response despite still not really having a western ridge and North Atlantic blocking. I certainly am not ready to say that we're done yet, although I think when this major cold pattern relents at the end of the week it will go to a more typical March regime being highly unsettled and variable. Given the supportive MJO/SOI run and whatnot, I think there will be plenty of cold running around. The typical transition to spring with warm air fighting back could help promote the more amplified pattern we've been looking for in terms of getting a big storm. We've had big storms in mid-late March the last two Marches in a row, plus this winter's Mid-November storm. We certainly could see that situation again at some point this month.  

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

Despite all the analogs and teleconnections, I consistently saw two things that usually don’t bode well if you want a prolific winter season in the east:

1. LES continuing all season long off Lake Erie. That shuts off in late December or January in our good winter seasons....pressing cold.

2. Feet upon feet upon feet of snow in California. Too much PAC.


.

I said the other day it's a minor miracle Harrisburg has >40" snow this season. 

[KPITSnow]

3 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Well...that was very kind of you to think of me.  Honestly, I never had a goal.  I always just wait to see how the winter plays out whether it's good or bad.  Sunday's storm pushed a bunch of us around here over the 40" mark, so that was great.  If I had any desires left for winter it would be the very, very unlikely probability of MDT having a third consecutive March with a 12"+ snowstorm.  The funny thing is that I can barely remember anything about the big one from last year.  Now I know my weather memory is beginning to go when I cannot remember a storm like that.  Take me back to '78, '83, '93, '96 and I can give you all sorts of details about those storms still to this day.

Edit>>I did have a goal.  It was to reach 12" with the sum of all 3 storms.  I came up 0.3" short.  Oh so close.

Wait, you’ve had a foot plus storm in the month of March the last two years????

[Jns2183]

I think we’ve had 6 or 7? I can think of 5 really quickly. But that has included 2 20”+ snowfall, 1 which was 30”+, and 2 storms that dropped about 40” in 5 days. The last two Marches have included storms that dumped 12” on 3/14/18 and 17” on 3/22/17. I think slowly people are appreciating It.

The snowiest winter on record for Harrisburg was the winter of 60-61. I think they had about 82”. The biggest storm that year was 13”. Here was the breakdown.

12”+. 1 13.30”
6-8”. 5 33.30”
4-6”. 3 14.40”
2-4”. 2 6.20”
T-2”. 21. 14.30”

Since some storms are measured over two days these are the ones I found:
12/11(6.9”) & 12/12(4.1”) = 11”
12/20(1.2”) & 12/21(6.8”) = 8”
1/15(7.2”) & 1/16(.3”) = 7.5”
1/19(13.3”) & 1/20(5.6”) = 18.9”
2/3(6.1”) & 2/4(6.3”) = 12.4”
2/11(0.9”) & 2/12(3.8”) = 4.7”

It also snowed 6 times in March that year for 4” and 3 times in April for 2.5” with the last snow > a trace coming 4/13

So a redue of our chart accounting for storms on two days would look like this:
12”+. 2 (31.3”)
8-12”. 2 (19”)
6-8”. 1 (7.5”)
4-6”. 2 (9.4”)
2-4”. 1 (2.4)”

That’s 8 storms for 69.7”

T-2”. 18 (11.9”)

[Bubbler86]

25 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Wait, you’ve had a foot plus storm in the month of March the last two years????

CTP says not really at MDT.  They only measured 11.9 last year.  Lol.  They seem to troll weather watchers. 

[CarlislePaWx]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

CTP says not really at MDT.  They only measured 11.9 last year.  Lol.  They seem to troll weather watchers. 

Apparently Blizz didn't make a big enough stink about that!

 

32 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Wait, you’ve had a foot plus storm in the month of March the last two years????

Yes.  Refer to Jns post 2 posts back for details.

[Voyager]

5 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Great post...couldn't have said it better. Unrealistic expectations run rampant on these boards. (not necessarily in our sub) Chances might be no better than 50/50 but it beats days of endless summer, right @Voyager ?  

Nope...lol

[Blizzard of 93]

3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

As many winter forecasts as I saw this winter that seemed to target the Mid-Atl/NE I-95 corridor for the biggest snows this winter, the setup for disappointment was already there in that regard. I think a lot of people hinged on seeing major North Atlantic blocking for a change, which didn't happen. We don't necessarily need a -NAO to succeed in this region but it becomes a lot more important in that region as a good -NAO pattern (esp coupled with a +PNA) helps to suppress storms and track them in a manner that targets the I-95 corridor, which can often be to the detriment of at least some of us in here of course. The funny part is that you look at big portions of lower VA and NC and they have had an above average winter from the Dec and Jan storms that missed us, which were the two brief times we had a suppressed storm track (esp with that Dec storm).

MJO was a big influence this winter, and it ran through the 4-6 phases not once but twice (Dec and Jan). We finally have it running in a more classic fashion through the whole 8-1-2-3 end coupled with the crash in the SOI the last several weeks and we finally got the pattern response despite still not really having a western ridge and North Atlantic blocking. I certainly am not ready to say that we're done yet, although I think when this major cold pattern relents at the end of the week it will go to a more typical March regime being highly unsettled and variable. Given the supportive MJO/SOI run and whatnot, I think there will be plenty of cold running around. The typical transition to spring with warm air fighting back could help promote the more amplified pattern we've been looking for in terms of getting a big storm. We've had big storms in mid-late March the last two Marches in a row, plus this winter's Mid-November storm. We certainly could see that situation again at some point this month.  

I agree that the MJO & SOI were key factors in our 3 snow events this past week.

I also think that we are not done yet. I posted a page or 2 back the Euro weeklies from last night that show a good looking pattern for the second half of March.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 12z Euro & 18z GFS still like the idea of some light snow on Friday.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z Euro & 18z GFS still like the idea of some light snow on Friday.

 

We need that to come after dark otherwise it will be the proverbial snow TV, especially with light rates.

[Itstrainingtime]

@Jns2183 great, interesting data you posted. Interesting, the 2 big March storms the past 2 years were reversed down here. I got 13.2" in 2017 and 17" on the button on 3/22/2018.

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

As many winter forecasts as I saw this winter that seemed to target the Mid-Atl/NE I-95 corridor for the biggest snows this winter, the setup for disappointment was already there in that regard. I think a lot of people hinged on seeing major North Atlantic blocking for a change, which didn't happen. We don't necessarily need a -NAO to succeed in this region but it becomes a lot more important in that region as a good -NAO pattern (esp coupled with a +PNA) helps to suppress storms and track them in a manner that targets the I-95 corridor, which can often be to the detriment of at least some of us in here of course. The funny part is that you look at big portions of lower VA and NC and they have had an above average winter from the Dec and Jan storms that missed us, which were the two brief times we had a suppressed storm track (esp with that Dec storm).

MJO was a big influence this winter, and it ran through the 4-6 phases not once but twice (Dec and Jan). We finally have it running in a more classic fashion through the whole 8-1-2-3 end coupled with the crash in the SOI the last several weeks and we finally got the pattern response despite still not really having a western ridge and North Atlantic blocking. I certainly am not ready to say that we're done yet, although I think when this major cold pattern relents at the end of the week it will go to a more typical March regime being highly unsettled and variable. Given the supportive MJO/SOI run and whatnot, I think there will be plenty of cold running around. The typical transition to spring with warm air fighting back could help promote the more amplified pattern we've been looking for in terms of getting a big storm. We've had big storms in mid-late March the last two Marches in a row, plus this winter's Mid-November storm. We certainly could see that situation again at some point this month.  

Blocking was my biggest hope (and letdown) this year.  We've seen that we can do without (-EPO/AO) and still get it done, but it was what I thought would be the missing piece of the snow puzzle for us.  Once the first modeled blocking came...and went, the flag went right up and i thought "here we go again".....and again....and again, as several episodes were modeled then didnt come to light.  Later on as we all started to wonder why, and the MJO (which typically is an important piece-but not the be all end all) seemed to be the only logical reason as to why we couldnt get it right here in the east.  SOI only trended - in the past few weeks and the couplet of an unfavorable MJO/SOI seems to have been largely what killed the chances for blocking that we so badly needed.

My wonder is why the MJO did the loopdy loop in 6 and why it remained unfavorable for such a long period?  With ENSO where it was, I didnt think blocking was going to be such a challenge.  Now I know better, and will enter w/ a more cautious approach, no matter the signals.  PNA rules the west AND the east and I hope that we can find our way to more favorable regimes next year.  

Lastly, the LR models really did a bad job IMO.  How many times were we fooled by a trough in the east, that only got pushed back or went poof?  Things to remember, but moreso, to figure out why?  Its above my pay grade, but these are the ??'s I'm left with as we head into our summer slumber.  

[MAG5035]

Fresh coating with the scattered snow showers around. 17°F with a bit of a breeze. Winter is def still alive and well tonight. 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

We need that to come after dark otherwise it will be the proverbial snow TV, especially with light rates.

Yes, we shouldn’t expect much on Friday. It will still be nice to see light snow in the air, even if it doesn’t add up too much. 

The 0z GFS is bringing a little more precip, on Friday, so maybe some of us can squeeze out a dusting to an inch or so on some surfaces. This week is frigid, & ground temps will be in good shape with the current snow cover. 

I don’t think this will be the last time that we see snow this month.

Here is the 0z GFS for Friday:

[Blizzard of 93]

This winter should already be celebrated as a victory in the LSV, even if we do not score any more snow this month.

I know we didn’t, to this point, get the epic pattern that the Euro weeklies & other seasonal models showed time & again back in the Fall & early Winter.

However, Every time someone canceled winter, we seemed to get more snow, despite the flawed overall pattern.

MDT is currently sitting at 40.9 inches of snow, which already has beat the climo seasonal average of 30.9 inches.

Please see the CTP chart below for the seasonal snow for Harrisburg for every year since 1980. 2018-19 will rank in the top 10 snow winters since 1980. We still have time, if we score another 5 or 6 inches, to knock off a few more snow years & maybe get into the top 5 or 6 on this chart. 

A 40 inch snow winter is rare for the LSV, so we should enjoy this season as a snow victory!

[Itstrainingtime]

Good stuff @Blizzard of 93! I'm lagging a a decent amount behind MDT this season at 35.5" which hasn't happened much in recent memory.

Looks like I briefly dropped to 13 early this morning, was sitting at 16 when I left for work. Rising sun, deep blue skies, and snow cover made for just an incredibly beautiful drive to work. 

[pawatch]

9 degrees this morning.

Snowfall totals from the last storm.

[sauss06]

16 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I guess I'm odd. (okay...let that one ride please) I'm 53 and embrace the cold more and more with each passing year. Autumn is good for PSU football and the inevitable march into cold and snow. 

And here i thought you were older then me  i wouldn't say i embrace the cold, but the cold doesn't bother me like these young wipper snappers i work with. I almost 100% of the time drive with my window down. Like yesterday i pulled into work at 13 degrees with my window, these youngins just don't understand

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

And here i thought you were older then me  i wouldn't say i embrace the cold, but the cold doesn't bother me like these young wipper snappers i work with. I almost 100% of the time drive with my window down. Like yesterday i pulled into work at 13 degrees with my window, these youngins just don't understand

People here at work are amazed at how I dress...I don't own a sweater, I have one long-sleeve shirt that I've worn once this winter season. (and that was to appease my wife) Back during the brutal cold snap at the end of January I wore a polo and a light jacket to work. Never a hat, never gloves...no need. 

I am the polar opposite of @Voyager I embrace deep winter! (Could be in part because my parents lived in Alaska...)

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Snowfall totals from the last storm.

I wonder if that's a representation of the highest total from each county? I know in Lancaster the highest officially reported was 6.5". Anyway, interesting to read! 

Edit: I know there were reports of higher amounts from counties adjacent to mine...