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Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?


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1 hour ago, pawatch said:

Mag what's your thoughts on ratio's?

Ratios probably aren't going to be great in the opening couple hours of this storm but they'll progressively get better as we cool surface temps. Aloft at 850 and 700mb are plenty cold over all of C-PA for good ratios, we just need to get the near surface cooled off and the sun down. Per mesoanalysis everyone in PA is at least -5ºC at 850mb and as low as -10ºC along the NY border. 700mb ranges from -6ºC SE PA to -12ºC in north central. When we start increasing the forcing especially at 700mb we should see pretty good ratios. You and Wmsptwx might make up a lot of the gap in accumulations by having better ratios. 

Part of CTP's disco:

Quote

Ensemble mean qpf, combined with snow/water ratios ranging from
around 12/1 over southeast Pa to 18/1 over the northwest
counties, supports storm totals ranging from around 2 inches
over Warren/Mckean counties, to between 6-8 inches south of
I-81. An examination of model soundings still indicates the
possibility of the rain/snow line grazing extreme southern
Lancaster County this evening. However, for the vast majority of
the forecast area, this will be an all snow event.

 

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26 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Trees have caved but snowboard is wet and not white 

We are all white here now except the roads, driveways, sidewalks.  Temps are down to just a tad under 32.  The whole March Sun Angle debate is not of interest to me but regardless of time of year, snow is not going to accumulate well on roads during daytime and temps at or near freezing at least until we get pillow sized flakes. Does not matter what angle the sun is it is there regardless and the roads do not deflect it any manner. 

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9 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

We are all white here now except the roads, driveways, sidewalks.  Temps are down to just a tad under 32.  The whole March Sun Angle debate is not of interest to me but regardless of time of year, snow is not going to accumulate well on roads during daytime and temps at or near freezing at least until we get pillow sized flakes. Does not matter what angle the sun is it is there regardless and the roads do not deflect it any manner. 

I’ve been light to occasionally mod snow so far.  You’ve been in a better band that’s helping you overcome.    Temp here is 32

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4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I’ve been light to occasionally mod snow so far.  You’ve been in a better band that’s helping you overcome.    Temp here is 32

Yea, I would have 2-3" at this point if the temps were down about 5 degrees.  As it is have about 1" on the grass.  Our finals are all going to come down to how far west the coastal "deform" band sets up.  If we miss it then we are sad.  LOL

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Temp slowly dropping, now down to 32.7.  Have had moderate snow with finer flakes for a while now.  On my board I have accumulated 0.3".  Exposed grass is caving as well as shrubs and trees.  Nothing on sidewalks/roads just yet.  If I can reach my forecasted amount of 6" I will be happy since the 3-day total will be a foot and I will have cracked 40" for the season.

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9 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Also @Cashtown_Coop, I can't believe your going to make a run at 50" for the season with this storm all the way down there. I'm only about 4" ahead of you.

all and all its been a good winter.  I bet we end up getting a late march crusher that give you a State College a foot while I watch it rain. 

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3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Been watching the MESO Analysis.  Really a lot of rain down south.  We won't see all of that but quite an impressive shot.  Dual centers of low pressure.

image.thumb.png.5df6defe736429bce2a2689f168fba9f.png

 

Good point Bubbler. Unfortunately we won’t see all of that fetch of moisture but you can see what tonight is going to bring in terms of snowfall rates 

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