MAG5035 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I’m hoping for 6”, that would give me a 6+ in every month except December. Don’t think I’m gonna get it with this one though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 i was hoping this would be a foot storm but ill take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Yes, GFS is now on board. Here is the 0z Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 hour ago, canderson said: Hey @daxx or @djr5001 any idea last time Harrisburg had 3 consecutive days of measurable snow (not counting traces)? This question intersested me so took a peek myself. This is March 2017. Snow is second to last column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: This question intersested me so took a peek myself. This it is March 2017. Snow is second to last column Ah, including that lovely 3/14 storm tail end on the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, canderson said: Ah, including that lovely 3/14 storm tail end on the next day. Yea that is a bit of a cheat I guess. I bet @djr5001 knows the last time we have had 3 seperate waves on 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 18 minutes ago, canderson said: Ah, including that lovely 3/14 storm tail end on the next day. That was the storm where CTP infamously revised down the amount by about 3 inches. The entire storm had 10-1 ratios. Look at the total precip in that chart posted. The snow amount should have been higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 The 0z Canadian is back on board as well with a good storm for the LSV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3.11.2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 The 0z High Res Canadian HRDPS looks great for the LSV for tomorrow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: 3.11.2019 Nice! The EPS & GEFS the last few days have been showing that we probably are not done with snow after tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 51 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Nice! The EPS & GEFS the last few days have been showing that we probably are not done with snow after tomorrow. Thats a strange looking map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 0Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 The long 6z HRRR looks pretty good for everyone in terms of precip shield and strength but it's been pretty insistent on a rain p-type to open up the first few hours of the storm in the Sus Valley. Otherwise, accums would be pretty robust across our whole subforum as depicted by that model. Def at least a 4-6" type snowfall for most if the rain conditional wasn't affecting numbers on the front end in the Sus Valley. Would it actually rain at the start? I don't think.. but the reason the model is likely showing such things is because the skin surface temps are above freezing and I'm sure intensity the first few hours isn't high. Timing for the start seems to be the mid afternoon in the Sus Valley (1-2pm) so these above freezing surface temps could materialize at the start. Something to keep an eye on but I think everyone starts as snow (and stays snow the whole storm) and solar insolation would tail off quickly after about 3-4pm if lighter rates weren't doing much on the ground at the start. If this were a late March storm I'd be more concerned about solar issues eating light snowfall but we're at the beginning of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 The 0z Euro Kuchera ratio map : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 The 6z High Res NAM agrees with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Here is the CTP Winter Storm Warning for the eastern LSV Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 430 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019 PAZ057>059-065-066-032130- /O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0004.190303T1700Z-190304T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0004.190303T1800Z-190304T0800Z/ Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, York, and Lancaster 430 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total accumulations of 5 to 7 inches are expected. * WHERE...Dauphin, Schuylkill, Lebanon, York and Lancaster Counties. * WHEN...Snow will develop early this afternoon and will taper off after midnight. The heaviest snow will fall this evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Here is the Warning for the western LSV Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 430 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019 PAZ036-056-063-064-032130- /O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0004.190303T1500Z-190304T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0004.190303T1800Z-190304T0800Z/ Franklin-Perry-Cumberland-Adams- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Carlisle, and Gettysburg 430 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total accumulations of around 6 inches are expected. * WHERE...Franklin, Perry, Cumberland and Adams Counties. * WHEN...Snow will develop early this afternoon and will taper off after midnight. The heaviest snow will fall this evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 9 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I’ll check into it. Thanks. They did not change anything with the overnight daily climate summary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 The 6z RGEM improved from the 0z run & moved the 6 inch snow line back through the I-81 corridor through the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 THANKS GOOD WORK 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 hmm Major over running precipitation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I'm struggling with this one, to be honest. While many of the high-res & global models show us going straight to snow, the HRRR and the RPM (our in-house model) shows some rain to start with torched BL conditions. Is the HRRR overplaying the warmth? Probably. BUT it is initializing the closest with current obs, as we are a couple to a few degrees milder than the NAM/GFS/EURO...those models have us in the upper 20s right now. Yeah, we'll likely thump later today with temps cooling, but still slightly above freezing in the best thumping. In that case we'll still see accumulations. I'm wondering if the dyanamic elements producing better than 10:1 ratios helps overcome the burning of QPF on a warm BL. Anywho, we're going 3-7 for most of the region, especially the LSV, with lower amounts farther north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, AllWeather said: I'm struggling with this one, to be honest. While many of the high-res & global models show us going straight to snow, the HRRR and the RPM (our in-house model) shows some rain to start with torched BL conditions. Is the HRRR overplaying the warmth? Probably. BUT it is initializing the closest with current obs, as we are a couple to a few degrees milder than the NAM/GFS/EURO...those models have us in the upper 20s right now. Yeah, we'll likely thump later today with temps cooling, but still slightly above freezing in the best thumping. In that case we'll still see accumulations. I'm wondering if the dyanamic elements producing better than 10:1 ratios helps overcome the burning of QPF on a warm BL. Anywho, we're going 3-7 for most of the region, especially the LSV, with lower amounts farther north. I'm glad you posted that...I wanted to say that I was concerned about the temperature and dewpoint but figured it was a weenie worry. Yesterday I did mention my concern about a lack of radiation cooling last night and that is exactly what happened. I provide weather updates for work and told senior management last night that I didn't know what to say...I'm concerned about losing QPF to rain and non-accumulating snow. I'm going to go with 2" - 5" with my morning update. I just don't feel good going any higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 33/23 with virga overhead. I don’t think temps go much higher out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm glad you posted that...I wanted to say that I was concerned about the temperature and dewpoint but figured it was a weenie worry. Yesterday I did mention my concern about a lack of radiation cooling last night and that is exactly what happened. I provide weather updates for work and told senior management last night that I didn't know what to say...I'm concerned about losing QPF to rain and non-accumulating snow. I'm going to go with 2" - 5" with my morning update. I just don't feel good going any higher. Yeah I feel dirty going with 7" in our range, but again if we're thumping with 1-2" per hour rates in some spots, it won't take much to pile it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: 33/23 with virga overhead. I don’t think temps go much higher out here Nam nailed this first streak of qpf. Shows it dying off and dry though until 1pmish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: 33/23 with virga overhead. I don’t think temps go much higher out here Can't imagine much of a diurnal with virga in your spot. I'm more "worried" about eastern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 6z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, AllWeather said: Can't imagine much of a diurnal with virga in your spot. I'm more "worried" about eastern counties. My fear out here is wasting the heavier rates before sunset. I believe Lanco County jackpots with the best rates after dark. Lastest Euro still targets that area with best qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now