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Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?


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48 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

CTP somehow with the 5pm daily climate summary only had 1.2 inches of snow from midnight through 5pm at MDT.

They had .24 of precip as snow from midnight through the overnight hours, but then put the daily snow amount as 1.2 inches. 

There was no way this was a 5 to 1 ratio snow. Most surrounding local areas also  had 2 to 3 inches of snow.

Hopefully this gets corrected for the final daily summary that will post overnight.

Maybe @Cashtown_Coop could contact them to make sure they get this right?

@Cashtown_Coop

I’m Not sure if you saw this on the previous page. I’ve seen you reference here contacting CTP in the past. 

Is there any way for you to contact them for an answer on this for us LSV folks ?

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6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 18z map that you posted was 10-1 ratio, which looks very similar to 12z.

I have not seen the 18z Kuchera map. The 12z Kuchera map boosted totals by a couple of inches for most.

Here are the 12z maps again to compare.

 

FE782358-D776-49F2-A4DC-0476A0293320.png

D80E34E0-4E37-4D0B-A211-1F7AEE38B22A.png

Yea, my post was an IMBY comment but it did cut off 1-2" here and areas of N Md just below me.  We are in the 5-6 now vs. the 6-7 before.  Maybe Ouch was too strong of a word but "Dang, wrong direction" would have worked.  

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Between the Euro and the Nam I think I will probably be lucky to get 2" . Been seeing it most of the winter.

Starts 6 days out at 8" on the model runs and ends with 1-2".  I' m ok with it though trying to get my mom moved out of her house.

She closes Friday.This is your storm...ENJOY!

 

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2 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Between the Euro and the Nam I think I will probably be lucky to get 2" . Been seeing it most of the winter.

Starts 6 days out at 8" on the model runs and ends with 1-2".  I' m ok with it though trying to get my mom moved out of her house.

She closes Friday.This is your storm...ENJOY!

 

Thanks man. You still will have shots better than us in March. 

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7 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Yea, my post was an IMBY comment but it did cut off 1-2" here and areas of N Md just below me.  We are in the 5-6 now vs. the 6-7 before.  Maybe Ouch was too strong of a word but "Dang, wrong direction" would have worked.  

Gotcha... please post 18z Euro Kuchera If you come across it.

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12 minutes ago, anotherman said:


I don’t think there is Kuchera for the 18Z.

And I am a little leary of that seemingly generous Kuchera map from 12Z.  EC only shows .5 to .6 in my neck of the woods yet the Kuchera seemed like it was suggesting 10" though those stacked purples are sometimes hard to differentiate.  The Cobb that Mag posted before was a little more smoothed out across the area which gives me more confidence in it.  Some Cobb's take compaction into the equation though not sure of Mag's did.  But I think for us to be "too" much over 10-1 with 2M temps being so warm we would need fatties for a long time.  

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9 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

A little surprised no Warning for LSV yet.  Event starts in about 16 or 17 hours.  Sure, anything can happen at 0Z but the same can be said for 6Z.  Their last published probablistic map from 45 min ago has 5" or more for all stations in the LSV.

 

 

They will overnight it really doesn’t matter what it  is. 

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26 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

LOL, that is your top agenda item tonight!

Yes, every year they do something like this a few times. Twice in the last few years MDT has finished at 39 inches, & situations like this can prevent reaching 40 inches for example. Earlier this year they ignored a few hours of snow that should have been counted. It’s just annoying & should be easily corrected with simple 3rd grade math.

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23 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

It is a public awareness thing for some but for me it is a curiosity as to their thought process behind it.  

They missed the 6 PM news cycle, so most stations have a 10/11 PM (or both), so they may be waiting for the some of the 00z before pulling the trigger. 

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What's the timeframe looking like for this storm? Penndot banned commercial vehicles from the local interstates and I'm trying to figure out when they will unban. My company will be calling me into work as soon as they reopen which I'm really hoping isn't in the middle of the  night tomorrow. I haven't worked 3rd shift in 6 months. 

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2 minutes ago, rescape said:

What's the timeframe looking like for this storm? Penndot banned commercial vehicles from the local interstates and I'm trying to figure out when they will unban. My company will be calling me into work as soon as they reopen which I'm really hoping isn't in the middle of the  night tomorrow. I haven't worked 3rd shift in 6 months. 

For Carlisle it starts at 1PM and ends close to midnight last time I looked. 

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