Festus Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, canderson said: CTP has MDT forecast for 4-9”. Warnings probably within an hour. Warnings up from LWX for counties bordering the Mason Dixon. 4" - 6" there though I believe their criteria is lower for a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 NAM is really bad. Super fast...it only snows for 6 hours. 1-3 at most my way and 2-4 also everywhere else. edit: maybe 3-6 SCPA. And a bit more in SEPA. Sorry, I don’t really know where everyone on here is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 NAM is really bad. Super fast...it only snows for 6 hours. 1-3 at most my way and 2-4 also everywhere else. edit: maybe 3-6 SCPA. And a bit more in SEPA. Sorry, I don’t really know where everyone on here is.Yeah, I was gonna say it looks better than 12Z. It’s upped snowfall totals.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 The 18Z HRRR just makes no sense. It warms temps into the low 40's by early afternoon, then holds them there as the precip arrives as rain. It doesn't change it to snow until 6pm but has a surface temp at MDT of 36 and only drops it to 33 by 06Z Monday (when the current run ends). It gives MDT and LNS < 2" total as it looks to be winding down by 07 or 08Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5-10” for my point and click all is setting up nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, paweather said: 5-10” for my point and click all is setting up nicely. Lol...yeah my point and click is 4-10" despite the snow map showing 4-6". It still looks like model wars and we're less than 24 hours away now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Latest.Looking good. 24 hours from now we all should be snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Lol...yeah my point and click is 4-10" despite the snow map showing 4-6". It still looks like model wars and we're less than 24 hours away now. It’s all good it will snow and we can watch it this time. It won’t be 1 or 2 in the morning! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 It’s all good it will snow and we can watch it this time. It won’t be 1 or 2 in the morning! I was able to watch last night because my son was throwing up at midnight and 2:30 am.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, Superstorm said: I was able to watch last night because my son was throwing up at midnight and 2:30 am. . So sorry. Hope he feels better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 So sorry. Hope he feels better I should have known when he did not ask for desert there was a problem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Horst Update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Just now, Superstorm said: Horst Update . Awesome nice 3 day stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 The NAMs & RGEM seem to be in agreement. We are also mostly ok even if there is the usual last minute 25-50 mile bump north with these type of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Also, like Horst’s mention of convective elements over SE PA. Could get exciting during the height of storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Still under a watch and my point and click just changed to 3-7" total which means a warning will be issued since 5" is the mid point of that range, but low-end warning. I just want to get 5.4" so my 3-storm total is a foot. (Sorry if I've been sounding pessimistic. I'm really not trying to be.) Whatever we get tomorrow, followed by the arctic blast that will help preserve the pack until the end of the week will have been quite an astounding feat to pull off the first week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 21 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The NAMs & RGEM seem to be in agreement. We are also mostly ok even if there is the usual last minute 25-50 mile bump north with these type of storms. We are fine. At least 6” might not be jackpot but good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 QPF up on GFS compared to last two model runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 After seeing the Euro I am surprised at the Nam's low output. Not low as in too low but would have thought we would see some 1" qpf outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 47 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Also, like Horst’s mention of convective elements over SE PA. Could get exciting during the height of storm. . Best part of what he said to me was the 5pm -11pm timeframe for the height of the storm. After sun angle issues but before bedtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Best part of what he said to me was the 5pm -11pm timeframe for the height of the storm. After sun angle issues but before bedtime.Exactly!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 This was the 18z NAM's snowfall using the Cobb method. That one incorporates BUFKIT data into calculating it's snow numbers. I'd be surprised if CTP went to warnings on the section of counties from here to Lewistown to SEG. I'm just not seeing enough support for 6", which is the criteria in these counties. I mean it wouldn't take much, especially if ratios were to play into it.. but this is looking like a 3-5" ordeal for JST-AOO-UNV-SEG. Temps aloft look to be sufficiently cold for good ratios in that region, but need the forcing to capitalize. Again, I think progression is a bigger issue than track. Most modeling including the GFS does get just about the whole state into the snow shield so I don't think anyone in PIT or in here gets shut out or less than 2-3" but we've really narrowed the corridor of 6"+. I rode the hot hand of the Euro/NAM combo in the 48-60hr range and it finally let me down. We may shift back north a tad in the couple runs before game time but I don't think that widens the 6+ corridor. I've already noted previously even with the more amped stuff we saw that I thought this was a 5-10" snowstorm because of the progressive nature of the system. That ceiling might be more like 7 or 8" with the weaker solutions that the more amped models have headed towards in addition to the narrower corridor. CTP's afternoon thoughts: Quote .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 3 pm update... The main system of interest continues to be the southern stream low slated to impact central PA Sunday and Sunday night. Recent model/ensemble trends continue to nudge the storm track southward, while also keeping its forward progression fairly rapid. Correspondingly, earlier projected snowfall amounts have dropped a bit. Given the synoptic back- drop of a broad eastern CONUS trough, with a fast flow undercutting the eastern Canadian vortex, along with a lack of north Atlantic blocking, the latest model trends may sense. Given above reasoning, we`ve converted a stripe of counties along and just north of I-80 to a Winter Weather Advisory (generally 2-4" anticipated). Farther south, given the amount of uncertainty still present, we`ll keep the Winter Storm Watch in tact. A solid 4-6" of snow is still plausible for south-central PA, with locally higher totals not out of the question. Overall, though, rapid system motion and comparatively less impressive frontal scale forcing (as compared to some previous storms this season) should prevent this from being a "blockbuster" snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Oh Canada! Here are a few time stamps of the 18z High Res Canadian HRDPS & the final snow total. LSV jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Anybody got an eye on the 18z euro?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowPlowGuy88 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Oh Canada! Here are a few time stamps of the 18z High Res Canadian HRDPS & the final snow total. LSV jackpot! Lock this one in. Please and thank you. A nice storm with no mixing issues will make for a nice Sunday evening plowing snow. After the last two days, we’re running out of room to put the snow. So let’s keep this under 10” please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 25 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Anybody got an eye on the 18z euro? . I don’t have access, hopefully someone else can post it when it’s out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 38 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Oh Canada! Here are a few time stamps of the 18z High Res Canadian HRDPS & the final snow total. LSV jackpot! The Herpy Derps penetration of 4+ inches into 2/3 of the PA is a nice look and would really suggest a nice event with 10" lollipos down LSV way. Only model I can recall showing such a strong signal for 4+ inches that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 CTP somehow with the 5pm daily climate summary only had 1.2 inches of snow from midnight through 5pm at MDT. They had .24 of precip as snow from midnight through the overnight hours, but then put the daily snow amount as 1.2 inches. There was no way this was a 5 to 1 ratio snow. Most surrounding local areas also had 2 to 3 inches of snow. Hopefully this gets corrected for the final daily summary that will post overnight. Maybe @Cashtown_Coop could contact them to make sure they get this right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 The Nam continues to show the surface temps are the only real issue at the height of the storm...925, 850 are all well below freezing. So it is going to snow whether you are at 32 or 36 with any kind if intensity. Here is hour 30 from 18Z. Blue to Green is the freezing line for the surface. Not sure I beleive the HRRR showing rain for so long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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