Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?

[Bubbler86]

Really hope this trend of a weaker, slightly more south, slp is done trending for tomorrow.  

[Cashtown_Coop]

Ended up with 3.2” from 0.30”of liquid.   A near carbon copy of 24 hrs ago where I had 3.0” from 0.29” liquid.     

[Superstorm]

Still looks good for another 6” to 8” on the 6Z Euro.



Snow on snow on snow is cool.


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[Flatheadsickness]

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[Bubbler86]

27 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Still looks good for another 6” to 8” on the 6Z Euro.



Snow on snow on snow is cool.


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Unfortunately that includes 1-3" (higher amounts east) from last nights snow so it is more of a 4-6" map.  

[anotherman]

Unfortunately that includes 1-3" (higher amounts east) from last nights snow so it is more of a 4-6" map.  

But it’s 6Z. Wouldn’t that not include last night’s?

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, anotherman said:

But it’s 6Z. Wouldn’t that not include last night’s?

Truth is in the middle...for you and me subtract about 1" or so from Superstorm's map...certainly not 3". 

@bubbler86 is correct for areas N & E of Lancaster county. 

[CarlislePaWx]

57 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Still looks good for another 6” to 8” on the 6Z Euro.



Snow on snow on snow is cool.


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Only problem with that map is it includes at least half of last night's overnight snow.  I'd take at least 1 to 2" off those totals to come up with the forecast for tomorrow.

I ended up with a surprise of 3.0" of snow on the board this morning.  This snow was wetter as it stuck to the trees significantly more and the woods are really looking very white this morning.  It was really coming down as I went to bed around 1:30...as heavily as the night before.  Pleasantly surprised for sure.  That's 6.8" for the 2 days.  Now we wait to see what tomorrow brings.

[Superstorm]

Only problem with that map is it includes at least half of last night's overnight snow.  I'd take at least 1 to 2" off those totals to come up with the forecast for tomorrow.
I ended up with a surprise of 3.0" of snow on the board this morning.  This snow was wetter as it stuck to the trees significantly more and the woods are really looking very white this morning.  It was really coming down as I went to bed around 1:30...as heavily as the night before.  Pleasantly surprised for sure.  That's 6.8" for the 2 days.  Now we wait to see what tomorrow brings.

Here is the correction factor map. Subtract that from previous posted map.




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[canderson]

Had another 3” overnight. 6.5” in 24 hours on March 1-2 is fun. 

I’m extremely skeptical for tomorrow. 

[CarlislePaWx]

Yep...about exactly what I had said.  I only need 5.4" more tomorrow to reach a foot over the 3 days.

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Here is the correction factor map. Subtract that from previous posted map.




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Thanks, I guess I should have said 5-7" not 4-6" bit I saw the 3" marker over near Lancaster county so was smoothing it a bit.  Either way it is Certainly a step down from the possibility of 6-12" just yesterday.   Big NAM running coming up :-).

[Superstorm]

Thanks, I guess I should have said 5-7" not 4-6" bit I saw the 3" marker over in Lancaster county so was smoothing it a bit.  Either way it is Certainly a step down from the possibility of 6-12" just yesterday.   Big NAM running coming up :-).

Storm has lost some of that northern stream energy so although it has reduced mixing issues it has also reduced amount of forcing.

Anymore deamplification and it’s another 2” to 4” event with even more marginal cold air.


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[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

Storm has lost some of that northern stream energy so although it has reduced mixing issues it has also reduced amount of forcing.

Anymore deamplification and it’s another 2” to 4” event with even more marginal cold air.


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Yep, one of those situations where we get decent snow but it is a let down.  With that said the cold air is pressing more so it will be potentially a tad colder if we get enough rates to get accumulations started.  Kind of hard to be the jackpot on this one.  Have to be near the boundary. 

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Storm has lost some of that northern stream energy so although it has reduced mixing issues it has also reduced amount of forcing.

Anymore deamplification and it’s another 2” to 4” event with even more marginal cold air.


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And daylight ...

[Bubbler86]

On the 12Z Nam the snow start is much delayed vs. yesterday's NAM. No snow near the LSV at 7AM now. 

[paweather]

Radar on the nam looks juiced for tomorrow 

[Ruin]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Radar on the nam looks juiced for tomorrow 

any chance you can post?

 

[Bubbler86]

Nam has the R/S line setting up just south of the Mason.  Thermal profiles are really questionable and anyone could go to slop without intensity. 

 

 

 

 

[KPITSnow]

Just now, bubbler86 said:

Nam has the R/S line setting up just south of the Mason.  Thermal profiles are really questionable and anyone could go to slop without intensity. 

Plus, someone else said the radar looks juiced on the NAM, but it looks pretty marginal to me. Maybe I’m pretty extreme southern PA?

 

The whole system looks weak and strung out.

[paweather]

This looks far from weak and it’s March

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Plus, someone else said the radar looks juiced on the NAM, but it looks pretty marginal to me. Maybe I’m pretty extreme southern PA?

 

The whole system looks weak and strung out.

Yea, it does not scream go out and buy milk.  Snow maps show 3-7" for LSV.  Similar to the 6Z Euro but a bit less especially to the North of the Turnpike where gradient takes it down fast. 

[KPITSnow]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

This looks far from weak and it’s March

Checking the qpf totals, outside of maybe far SE PA, it looks like a 2-4, maybe 3-5 inch event. Plus, there was the mentioned mixing issues as you get further south and it is March which you have to worry about cutting down totals if you don’t have great rates.

[pawatch]

The dog woke me up at 3:00 am and it was raining then. Got up this morning 7:00 and we had snow flurries and a dusting on the vehicles.

NWS thoughts this morning. Wonder if today if we see a tick NW...figure we will see a little model wiggle today now that this system is gone.

Euro just really hasn't had a great snow season this year. As far as that goes all the models have struggled a little.

[KPITSnow]

5 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Yea, it does not scream go out and buy milk.  Snow maps show 3-7" for LSV.  Similar to the 6Z Euro but a bit less especially to the North of the Turnpike where gradient takes it down fast. 

Another thing to worry about is the euro had been weaker and further south nearly every run. Two days ago it had a foot of snow up near I-80...I was too far south in Pittsburgh.

 

The GFS has been pretty consistent.

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Checking the qpf totals, outside of maybe far SE PA, it looks like a 2-4, maybe 3-5 inch event. Plus, there was the mentioned mixing issues as you get further south and it is March which you have to worry about cutting down totals if you don’t have great rates.

All true. I’ll take whatever it still looks juiced for a period of time. It looks like northern stream and southern stream aren’t together made be good if they were it could cut to the west. 

[KPITSnow]

Just now, paweather said:

All true. I’ll take whatever it still looks juiced for a period of time. It looks like northern stream and southern stream aren’t together made be good if they were it could cut to the west. 

No I get it. For me my biggest storm of the year so far is 4 inches. At this point I’d rather it not snow than get another 2-4 inch event. Watching the euro put out foot totals 3 days in advance only to watch it move south or north all year in the last two days has really worn us down out this way.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

No I get it. For me my biggest storm of the year so far is 4 inches. At this point I’d rather it not snow than get another 2-4 inch event. Watching the euro put out foot totals 3 days in advance only to watch it move south or north all year in the last two days has really worn us down out this way.

The Euro had a bad year.  Not as bad as the GFS in my opinion but I think "King Euro" is a questionable nickname. 

[Bubbler86]

One good thing is that a good bit of the snow comes late and after sundown.  It has gone back again from a 15 hour event to more of a 10-12 hour one.

[Ruin]

this looks pretty healthy. why are people saying it looks strung out and weak? it has a nice solid shield of snow. strung out to me would mean patches of snow and some breaks.