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Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?


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10 minutes ago, canderson said:

Picked up nicely in the last 30 minutes - been all snow. A bit light right now but the heavier returns to the SW should get here within 45 minutes, Might stay up for the Euro.

Edit: nm no way I can stay up another hour and half 

Just wait til DST starts next weekend if we have anything to track at that point haha. 

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It's so strange.  I'm looking outside at the exact same heavy snow that was falling at precisely this time 24 hours ago.  Heavy snow now with about 1.2" on the board.  Unless the radar fills in to the SW this party isn't going to last a lot longer.  Maybe another hour for me.  That should get me up to between 2 and 2.5" for the event which is close to what the models were showing.  Temp 30.7.

Is Blizz or daxx going to give Euro update in about 10 minutes?  I will try to stay up for that update other wise I'll get it in the morning.

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5 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

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Lol.  The LanCo gradient literally flipped.  This run seems to be following the other 0Z guidance sans the CMC.  Still a little more time for adjustments maybe in our favor.  Look how DC almost misses out completely even with the shift south.  Amazing.

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1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Lol.  The LanCo gradient literally flipped.  This run seems to be following the other 0Z guidance sans the CMC.  Still a little more time for adjustments maybe in our favor.  Look how DC almost misses out completely even with the shift south.  Amazing.

We’ve seen the south shift only trend north the last 24 hours so many times.   That’s my feeling here.   Also around 2” here.  Still mod snow 

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Well, CTP reissued all their watches around 1:15am including the north central so they would've had a look at 0z including Euro. I'm sure they're going to keep continuity for another set or two of runs to see if this decided shift holds up. I'll have my full Euro to look at in about 10min, but just looking at the snowmap above suggests to me progression is more of a problem than track (although the axis is def SE). We were talking a broad area of 8-12" last night at 0z in central PA. Now we don't see 6+ show up til a much more narrow stripe from northern MD, through Lancaster/York and then working just NW of Philly. 

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Yea, the 0z Euro is more progressive and much weaker. The low is SE some but the bigger thing is just how much weaker the system is.  It doesn't have the expanse of decent precip to the NW that got our western and northern folks good snows. The result is a narrow area of 6"+ with about an 8" max in PA. 

24hr Kuchera

856682520_ScreenShot2019-03-02at2_12_54AM.png.05b1b14354fc4301d7876aecbe45f038.png

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Matt Moore (Allweather) this morning showed a southwest to northeast stripe of 3" - 7" across the LSV from Lancaster to maybe Perry county.  Then 1" - 3" northwest of that.  Pretty much in line with the latest Euro.

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4 minutes ago, Festus said:

Matt Moore (Allweather) this morning showed a southwest to northeast stripe of 3" - 7" across the LSV from Lancaster to maybe Perry county.  Then 1" - 3" northwest of that.  Pretty much in line with the latest Euro.

Thanks! Yeah, can't deny the trends. Interestingly enough, it's not really like the wave is much weaker (though it is a bit), but also oriented differently now that the northern stream is a bit sharper. So instead of more overrunning, we basically have to rely on a quick stripe of more dynamically driven stuff with the height of the storm. 

 

PS - Did the GFS just score another one? 

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