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Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?


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7 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Wow, the MA is winning the model wars this evening.  Boundary pressing further south for Sunday and taking the heavier snows south with it.  Still decent LSV but MA really gets back in the game.  I think that is good as it keeps things interesting.  LOL. 

The Nam looked good. 

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GFS and FV3 are both pretty "meh" for Sunday.  Decent snow but a weaker system than the Nam or Euro so really just a continuation of our 2-6" type storms.   Snow maps show 4-8ish but that includes 2-3 from tonight.  Snow maps are garabage for this situation right now anyway.  Anybody who is anybody just wants to see the R/S line 20 miles to the their south east.  

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Knit-picking the GFS track on the 0z run would actually have the low hitting the coast a bit north. In the VA Beach/off the southern tip of the Delmarva realm vs 18z whichwas at the VA/NC line to near the northernmost OBX. That track's pretty good really. NAM came southeast some at 0z but models overall seem to be tightening the precipshield, or at least the portion that delivers more significant snows. GFS still seems the southeastern most moving from there to the benchmark, keeping most of SNE snow. 

To answer the question of why this might be pressing south or just not coming north a lot is because we have a very cold pattern pressing even without a high directly to the north. There is a monster high dropping into the upper plains with a ton of cold air. Temps are plenty cold aloft for this storm over most of PA. Was looking at the Nam and it had the -8ºC 850mb line running roughly through the middle of PA and -10ºC up in northern PA. That's pretty cold, it's good from a ratio standpoint but it shows the tight thermal gradient is along the mason dixon line. Tonight's departing coastal seems to reinforce the cold aloft later tomorrow which resets the boundary a bit further south than it might have been. We gotta get the storm all the way onshore tomorrow in the west and the coastal out of the way til I think we see the final adjustments on things. I think the fact our Sunday storm isn't even all the way onshore yet in the west coast on Friday night should tell you how progressive the pattern is. 

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