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Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?


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4 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Euro snow map finally showed on the MA.  This includes tonight so take ehhh....2-5" off this to estimate the prog's call for Sunday in the LSV. Seems like a decent 6-12".   I will psot one for further up in PA if I see it.

046361BB-71B2-425B-96D0-A819424C2C7C.png

 

 

That's a little better than I thought but WAY too close for us down here. 

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3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Euro snow map finally showed on the MA.  This includes tonight so take ehhh....2-5" off this to estimate the prog's call for Sunday in the LSV. Seems like a decent 6-12".   I will psot one for further up in PA if I see it.

046361BB-71B2-425B-96D0-A819424C2C7C.png

 

 

Kuchera map has ratios slightly above 10:1 for I-81 and northwest so it adds another inch or two for much of that area around Harrisburg to an extra 3-4 inches for State College and Pittsburgh for the Sunday/Monday event.

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Just now, bubbler86 said:

And I should have said 6-12 for all bu the FAR S/E, sorry.  I am bad about concentrating on the Franklin, Adams, York, Dauphin and Cumberland area. 

Hey...the first thing every single one of us does is look to see what it's showing over our homestead. No shame in that. 

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1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said:

 

That coastal is why I have no expectations above couple inches or so.

 

1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

I think you and I are in the same boat on this one.

I don't think it's going to affect Sunday's storm to the point of a fringe job in the west and north. I mean maybe NW PA sees more of an advisory type event but I just think that it affects it enough to take the low running close to/ into PA scenario off the table. Most guidance is taking a TN Valley low inside to or near the Delmarva, so the flat trajectory would bode quite well for all of western and central PA. The GFS brought the low to the coast near the NC/VA border, which is still a workable track but a track like that would divide the subforums into the northern parts seeing okay snow and a stripe of the southern parts seeing the heavy snow axis. I think the Euro looked like it was the most NW attm with the 12z suite, taking the low over the Delmarva peninsula. Pretty much everyone in PA outside of the Philly region in SE PA and Erie had 6"+ on the Euro Kuchera map (24hr map that doesn't include tonight). 

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1 minute ago, bubbler86 said:

Well @CarlislePaWx had been posting about the HRRR cutting back snow tonight and the Nam has followed suite....huge cut for LSV except far S/E.  Close to be a non event for many since 1-3" events are indeed getitng ho-hum. 

 

image.png.d7a4a3f6f142ee91aed4eb6f7bd814dd.png

 

That map looks sorta like the one above it that I posted. 

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Headlines up for Sunday

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
306 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

...Widespread Moderate to Potentially Heavy Snowfall for Sunday
and Sunday Night...

.Low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley early Sunday
morning will move quickly northeast and cross the Delmarva
Peninsula early Monday. The storm track will bring snow of
varying intensity to much of Central Pennsylvania and the
Susquehanna Valley. The snow should be lighter over Northwestern
Pennsylvania, and will likely mix with rain and sleet at times in
the far Southeast, which will likely hold down accumulations to 4
inches or less in both parts of the state.

PAZ057>059-020815-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.190303T1700Z-190304T1200Z/
/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0020.190302T0100Z-190302T1200Z/
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Including the cities of Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville,
and Lebanon
306 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow expected tonight. Heavy snow possible Sunday and
  Sunday night. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches are
  expected tonight. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 6
  inches, with localized amounts up to 8 inches, are possible
  Sunday and Sunday night.

* WHERE...Dauphin, Schuylkill and Lebanon Counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 8 PM this evening
  to 7 AM EST Saturday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday
  afternoon through Monday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be
  prepared for significant reductions in visibilities at times.
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Here is a slightly different worded one for the Western LSV and other areas.  A little bearish if you ask me.

 

PAZ034>036-056-063-064-020815-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.190303T1500Z-190304T1200Z/
/O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0020.190302T0100Z-190302T1200Z/
Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Cumberland-Adams-
Including the cities of Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg,
Newport, Carlisle, and Gettysburg
306 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Heavy snow possible. Total
  snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches topped by a light glazing of
  ice are expected tonight. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to
  6 inches are possible Sunday and Sunday night.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 8 PM this evening
  to 7 AM EST Saturday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday
  morning through Monday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be
  prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania
roadways. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and
traffic conditions.

There is the potential for significant winter weather that may
impact travel. Continue to monitor forecasts and review winter
weather safety and preparedness information at
weather.gov/winter.

 

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4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Things are just moving along so fast in this flow right now...a couple of days ago this was a Monday deal, then Sunday night into Monday morning, and by Sunday it will be arriving at dawn and done by dusk at this rate...

Going back to this to say 'Hi" since the NAM now has snow breaking out in the western LSV at 7AM Sunday.  Lol. 

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30 minutes ago, canderson said:

Good - that's where it should be. The Weather Civil War will also be won by the good guys.  

Great. Nanny is gonna bitch about Confederate weather map statues being removed from state capitol complexes. Thanks for the idea, asshole.

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Even with the low centered over the Delmarva its going to be in the mid 40's tomorrow. last I checked/herd there was nothing to keep the cold in place or keep the warmer air from mixing in the lower level's but The map thing is not my cup of tea at all. I am not saying its not going to snow Sunday night just a little unsure of all the confidence in in a mostly snow P type . What's the thinking on this  

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5 minutes ago, Flatheadsickness said:

Even with the low centered over the Delmarva its going to be in the mid 40's tomorrow. last I checked/herd there was nothing to keep the cold in place or keep the warmer air from mixing in the lower level's but The map thing is not my cup of tea at all. I am not saying its not going to snow Sunday night just a little unsure of all the confidence in in a mostly snow P type . What's the thinking on this  

With the clouds, falling precip (which will bring some of its own air down if falling fast enough) and being on the south side of the low meaning mostly east or north east winds when the low is near, we are hoping it just cold enough.  Laying on the roads is another story.  Will need it to snow fairly hard to get that started.  

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