Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Euro snow map finally showed on the MA. This includes tonight so take ehhh....2-5" off this to estimate the prog's call for Sunday in the LSV. Seems like a decent 6-12". I will psot one for further up in PA if I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Euro snow map finally showed on the MA. This includes tonight so take ehhh....2-5" off this to estimate the prog's call for Sunday in the LSV. Seems like a decent 6-12". I will psot one for further up in PA if I see it. That's a little better than I thought but WAY too close for us down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Euro snow map finally showed on the MA. This includes tonight so take ehhh....2-5" off this to estimate the prog's call for Sunday in the LSV. Seems like a decent 6-12". I will psot one for further up in PA if I see it. Kuchera map has ratios slightly above 10:1 for I-81 and northwest so it adds another inch or two for much of that area around Harrisburg to an extra 3-4 inches for State College and Pittsburgh for the Sunday/Monday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: That's a little better than I thought but WAY too close for us down here. And I should have said 6-12 for all but the FAR S/E, sorry. I am bad about concentrating on the Franklin, Adams, York, Dauphin and Cumberland area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Very close for Lancaster (Sunday). . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: And I should have said 6-12 for all bu the FAR S/E, sorry. I am bad about concentrating on the Franklin, Adams, York, Dauphin and Cumberland area. Hey...the first thing every single one of us does is look to see what it's showing over our homestead. No shame in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Superstorm said: Very close for us (Sunday). . Hence Horst's tweet this morning about a huge gradient across Lanco... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Euro does change most of the LSV over near the end Sunday night Surface temps are not overly cold at any point of the storm. One thing with the 12Z suite is that although this is not going sit over us for 2 days it is still shaping into a 10-12 hour storm which is not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 38 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: We already have @Atomixwx for that. Tell ya wife I wanna motorboat her butt cheeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 25 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Tell ya wife I wanna motorboat her butt cheeks. PBP is moving in a new direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: PBP is moving in a new direction. He's in perfect form again today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said: That coastal is why I have no expectations above couple inches or so. 1 hour ago, KPITSnow said: I think you and I are in the same boat on this one. I don't think it's going to affect Sunday's storm to the point of a fringe job in the west and north. I mean maybe NW PA sees more of an advisory type event but I just think that it affects it enough to take the low running close to/ into PA scenario off the table. Most guidance is taking a TN Valley low inside to or near the Delmarva, so the flat trajectory would bode quite well for all of western and central PA. The GFS brought the low to the coast near the NC/VA border, which is still a workable track but a track like that would divide the subforums into the northern parts seeing okay snow and a stripe of the southern parts seeing the heavy snow axis. I think the Euro looked like it was the most NW attm with the 12z suite, taking the low over the Delmarva peninsula. Pretty much everyone in PA outside of the Philly region in SE PA and Erie had 6"+ on the Euro Kuchera map (24hr map that doesn't include tonight). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 Tonight only: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Well @CarlislePaWx had been posting about the HRRR cutting back snow tonight and the Nam has followed suite....huge cut for LSV except far S/E. Close to be a non event for many since 1-3" events are indeed getitng ho-hum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: Well @CarlislePaWx had been posting about the HRRR cutting back snow tonight and the Nam has followed suite....huge cut for LSV except far S/E. Close to be a non event for many since 1-3" events are indeed getitng ho-hum. That map looks sorta like the one above it that I posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: That map looks sorta like the one above it that I posted. Except it is 2-4" where he has 1-3 and 1-3 where he has 2-4 (generally). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Headlines up for Sunday URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 306 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019 ...Widespread Moderate to Potentially Heavy Snowfall for Sunday and Sunday Night... .Low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley early Sunday morning will move quickly northeast and cross the Delmarva Peninsula early Monday. The storm track will bring snow of varying intensity to much of Central Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna Valley. The snow should be lighter over Northwestern Pennsylvania, and will likely mix with rain and sleet at times in the far Southeast, which will likely hold down accumulations to 4 inches or less in both parts of the state. PAZ057>059-020815- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.190303T1700Z-190304T1200Z/ /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0020.190302T0100Z-190302T1200Z/ Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Including the cities of Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, and Lebanon 306 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Snow expected tonight. Heavy snow possible Sunday and Sunday night. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches are expected tonight. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts up to 8 inches, are possible Sunday and Sunday night. * WHERE...Dauphin, Schuylkill and Lebanon Counties. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be prepared for significant reductions in visibilities at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Here is a slightly different worded one for the Western LSV and other areas. A little bearish if you ask me. PAZ034>036-056-063-064-020815- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.190303T1500Z-190304T1200Z/ /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0020.190302T0100Z-190302T1200Z/ Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Cumberland-Adams- Including the cities of Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport, Carlisle, and Gettysburg 306 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches topped by a light glazing of ice are expected tonight. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are possible Sunday and Sunday night. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday morning through Monday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania roadways. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. There is the potential for significant winter weather that may impact travel. Continue to monitor forecasts and review winter weather safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Things are just moving along so fast in this flow right now...a couple of days ago this was a Monday deal, then Sunday night into Monday morning, and by Sunday it will be arriving at dawn and done by dusk at this rate... Going back to this to say 'Hi" since the NAM now has snow breaking out in the western LSV at 7AM Sunday. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 hours ago, bubbler86 said: Here is the Euro snow depth map from before and after tonights snow. Pick a random city...Lancaster goes from 2-4 to 6-8 so pretty healthy jump. I go from 4-6" to 4-6" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just got NAM'ed for both storms..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Rain Snow line for Sunday's storm literally at the Maryland/PA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, paweather said: Rain Snow line for Sunday's storm literally at the Maryland/PA border. Good - that's where it should be. The Weather Civil War will also be won by the good guys. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 NAM for Sunday storm. An amazing 15 hour event now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 18z NAM's right on the Delmarva with Sun/Mon's storm like the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, MAG5035 said: 18z NAM's right on the Delmarva with Sun/Mon's storm like the Euro. Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 30 minutes ago, canderson said: Good - that's where it should be. The Weather Civil War will also be won by the good guys. Great. Nanny is gonna bitch about Confederate weather map statues being removed from state capitol complexes. Thanks for the idea, asshole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Even with the low centered over the Delmarva its going to be in the mid 40's tomorrow. last I checked/herd there was nothing to keep the cold in place or keep the warmer air from mixing in the lower level's but The map thing is not my cup of tea at all. I am not saying its not going to snow Sunday night just a little unsure of all the confidence in in a mostly snow P type . What's the thinking on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Great. Nanny is gonna bitch about Confederate weather map statues being removed from state capitol complexes. Thanks for the idea, asshole. Nannys out there now rubbing down her flint lock and stuffing her powder horn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, Flatheadsickness said: Even with the low centered over the Delmarva its going to be in the mid 40's tomorrow. last I checked/herd there was nothing to keep the cold in place or keep the warmer air from mixing in the lower level's but The map thing is not my cup of tea at all. I am not saying its not going to snow Sunday night just a little unsure of all the confidence in in a mostly snow P type . What's the thinking on this With the clouds, falling precip (which will bring some of its own air down if falling fast enough) and being on the south side of the low meaning mostly east or north east winds when the low is near, we are hoping it just cold enough. Laying on the roads is another story. Will need it to snow fairly hard to get that started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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