TugHillMatt Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 46 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: The Canadian Meso really want to give that "I have seen us get 6 from this situation before" Horst statement some backing. Not sure where he lives but this may be right over his house. It sends a bowling ball of higher rates and forcing right over south PA tonight. Horst lives in Manheim township, just north if Lancaster city. That would be about 5 inches for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 The 18z High Res NAM & 18z High Res Canadian really target Southern PA with the best snow for round 1 overnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Well the nam just took it up a notch tomorrow night! Pretty big hit with snow tomorrow night for lsv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, daxx said: Well the nam just took it up a notch tomorrow night! Pretty big hit with snow tomorrow night for lsv. Tomorrow night? Do tell please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, daxx said: Well the nam just took it up a notch tomorrow night! Pretty big hit with snow tomorrow night for lsv. Yea, just saw that. LSV is Named. Could be quite the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Tomorrow night? Do tell please... Not just one nam but both! 2 to 4 tomorrow. Maybe that again tomorrow night. If temps trend well I could see more. Im going to see where the rest of the models go before i get to excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, daxx said: Not just one nam but both! 2 to 4 tomorrow. Maybe that again tomorrow night. If temps trend well I could see more. Im going to see where the rest of the models go before i get to excited. Some sleet and slop at the start of tomorow night but I think even being cautious that is at least 4" more (from tonight) for York and Lancaster...rates overcome temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, daxx said: Not just one nam but both! 2 to 4 tomorrow. Maybe that again tomorrow night. If temps trend well I could see more. Im going to see where the rest of the models go before i get to excited. 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: Some sleet and slop at the start of tomorow night but I think even being cautious that is at least 4" more (from tonight) for York and Lancaster...rates overcome temps. What a way to start off the 0z suite. Time for bed...getting up by 4am for work tomorrow. Looking forward to @Blizzard of 93 posts with maps at about the time I get up... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 The LR HRRR is also favoring York and Lancaster getting the business. Not extreme like the Nam but that is two 0Z's suggesting Wave 2 may be a real threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 0z NAM is pretty similar to what the 12z Euro had today with regards to the Sunday night-Mon system, and that's generally been a winning combo in the short-intermediate range when those two are on the same page. So we'll see how the rest of 0z evolves with that system. Western and Central PA get ripped on those two solutions. Actually just about the whole state sans the Philly region do but the issue in our subforum is the very far southern tier along the PA/MD line and potential mixing/rain. The GFS has been a more southern solution but given how it handled tonight's system up until about yesterday or so.. It may be running these systems too far south in the pattern we have this week. Once again, this system does not look to have a high to the north. This low will be running strictly on wherever the gradient sets and we won't have a CAD setup. So instead of a large mixing area, we'll likely have an actual rain/snow line for a change or perhaps a very narrow mixing area. You can see that illustrated on the P-type map from the NAM, for example. Establishment of some fresh snowpack tonight and perhaps tomorrow night for some areas can only help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: 0z NAM is pretty similar to what the 12z Euro had today with regards to the Sunday night-Mon system, and that's generally been a winning combo in the short-intermediate range when those two are on the same page. So we'll see how the rest of 0z evolves with that system. Western and Central PA get ripped on those two solutions. Actually just about the whole state sans the Philly region do but the issue in our subforum is the very far southern tier along the PA/MD line and potential mixing/rain. The GFS has been a more southern solution but given how it handled tonight's system up until about yesterday or so.. It may be running these systems too far south in the pattern we have this week. Once again, this system does not look to have a high to the north. This low will be running strictly on wherever the gradient sets and we won't have a CAD setup. So instead of a large mixing area, we'll likely have an actual rain/snow line for a change or perhaps a very narrow mixing area. You can see that illustrated on the P-type map from the NAM, for example. Establishment of some fresh snowpack tonight and perhaps tomorrow night for some areas can only help. Great post and great to have a met chime in and keep us straight laced. The thing about the 0Z Nam, at least for the LSV , is Wave 2 ends up being the big dog anyway for that area. Not a fun 3 days to try and forecast. Wave 2 is really the "coastal" of these and has the biggest potential to over perform I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Differences between the GFS and Nam, this close, are just not understandable to me. Nam is wrapping up at 7AM tomorrow and has basically shut snow off in the southern LSV while GFS is in a full swing moderate snow for the same area at that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Gfs moved a good amount south for Sunday. Lighter on the qpf as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 The NAM says there will be 6" on the ground at MDT at 12Z tomorrow. Hahahaha 1"/hr snow for nearly 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Fv3 is a nice hit for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Whoever ends up 5-10 miles north of the rain/snow line on Sunday is going to be on here yelling "pouring" and "fatties" a lot. Rgem cut back on total qpf for wave 1 this evening. I think we can all agree that the GFS has done terribly on temps lately but pushed LSV up into the 40's after a fairly moderate rain storm tomorrow night. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Snow has started here. Time to freshen the glacier up, the windstorm blew a lot of pine needles and other junk on it haha. Base snowpack running roughly about 4-5". The 2/12 portion of the pack under the top 2" is back to being bulletproof again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Snow has started here..Looking forward to the potential sunday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Almost at the 1" mark. Moderate to heavy, caved roads, the usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowPlowGuy88 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Treated surfaces are starting to coat in Dillsburg/Mechanicsburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Wow. Just headed off to bed with HEAVY snow falling. Big flakes. Dropped the temp from 32.0 down to 27.7 in only 30 minutes. About 0.6" of snow on the board and it is definitely snowing at 1"/hr rates at the moment. Will the NAM be right come morning??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 9 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Wow. Just headed off to bed with HEAVY snow falling. Big flakes. Dropped the temp from 32.0 down to 27.7 in only 30 minutes. About 0.6" of snow on the board and it is definitely snowing at 1"/hr rates at the moment. Will the NAM be right come morning??? Snow here in Marysville! Moderate just began in the last 20 minutes. All surfaces covered! Radar looks solid for several hours of snow. NAM for the win ?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 The 0z Euro was a fantastic run for most of CTP with 3 snow events through Monday. It still gives all of southern PA 2-4 inches tonight. Then, it is juicing up the event tomorrow night into Saturday am, adding another 1-2 inches for most of us. The Sunday storm absolutely crushes the I -81 corridor of PA. It does bring in some mixing at the height of the storm to York & Lancaster. Here are the 3 Euro maps as the snow accumulates for all 3 events. The last map is the final total when all 3 events are done on Monday ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Good trends!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 M2.5” mod snow 25f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 42 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z Euro was a fantastic run for most of CTP with 3 snow events through Monday. It still gives all of southern PA 2-4 inches tonight. Then, it is juicing up the event tomorrow night into Saturday am, adding another 1-2 inches for most of us. The Sunday storm absolutely crushes the I -81 corridor of PA. It does bring in some mixing at the height of the storm to York & Lancaster. Here are the 3 Euro maps as the snow accumulates for all 3 events. The last map is the final total when all 3 events are done on Monday ! The 24 hour Kuchera snow map covering just the Sun Night-Mon storm had 6+ for pretty much the whole subforum save for maybe the extreme southern edge of Lancaster. JST/AOO/UNV/FIG/IPT/MDT/THV/probably LNS within an 8-12" zone. IPT and FIG riding the 8" line. It's a big hit for the subforum. Pittsburgh/SW PA 6-8" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Looked outside everything pure white. some of the heaviest snow rates all season. I dont even have to look to the lights outside to see the snow. Radar at the moment is just derpy wrong looks like they are having radar problems tonight. took a whole area of snow and just shut it off from dark greens to nothing in minutes on accuweather. other radars show a full snow in that area. I measured just over 3 inchs all rdy pretty shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I hit 3" here about 10 minutes ago its been snowing like the Dickens even had some radar verified moose biscuits to start things off The measurement was taken at 2:12am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 This is 1 inch per hour snow ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 there about to get a quick shot of some intense stuff just south of Easton Md. heading back out for the finish and shovel . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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