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Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?


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2 hours ago, bubbler86 said:

Water temp at ACY is 40 right now so I would think as long as the slp stays well to the south no one is torching at the surface so like you mentioned before, if you get rates it can snow even if 850's are above 32. 

 

Edit-My post applies to event 2 or 3. 

That’s a great point. Lot less WAA when easterly fetch is happening. Now if we get a stemwinder...still trouble. 

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7 minutes ago, Gosnow said:

Mr Horst saying March could be the snowiest month. Perhaps the new Feb ^_^

http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/SWD-latest.html

Here is to tomorrows start. March 1st. Personally I think this first one will over perform and we see 3 to 4 in Lanco tomorrow.

 

Thanks for posting that! :) 

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Just now, Superstorm said:


Way outside it’s range.


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That is a bit of an old wives tale in my opinion...Nam's depcition of tonight was there 84 hours ago.  If someone gave me $100 and said put it on the 84 hour Nam or the 24 hour GFS I would choose the Nam.  Here is the Nams forecast for tonight but 78 hours ago.  That is far back as pivotalweather would go.   

 

image.png.8f556bfd9222ca17fc071ee93a7984e3.png

 

 

 

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Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

I think you really can throw out this run on the NAM.  It gives MDT 7" of snow tonight from the clipper and nothing from the coastal on Sunday.  Based on snowfall distribution it looks like it takes the low inland enough to give all of the LSV rain.

I think it really looks a lot like the Euro from a day or two ago.  I think much of the difference between the Nam and say a better solution for Sunday, like the Icon, is the second system (Friday night) and how it progresses.  I think someone mentioned that today...maybe Nut...that the Sunday solution is going to be made or broken by wave 2.   Wave 2 needs to be our block. 

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14 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I think it really looks a lot like the Euro from a day or two ago.  I think much of the difference between the Nam and say a better solution for Sunday, like the Icon, is the second system (Friday night) and how it progresses.  I think someone mentioned that today...maybe Nut...that the Sunday solution is going to be made or broken by wave 2.   Wave 2 needs to be our block. 

If the icon nails these three events I might consider moving to Germany. 

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Food for thought for after the storms. Sun activity and are snowiest/storm years. There was great research being done on this in the USA from around 2005-2012 Most the available information and research just diapered in 2012. I know why but I wont go there today. Anyways its a great (probably The best) forecasting tool for long range patterns and it looks like the research lost its funding to the modern fake dumb down sciences .      

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1 hour ago, bubbler86 said:

Yea on the GFS,  that storm is one fast mover and right where much of the LSV would want it for the heaviest snow even with its speed.

There's not much to keep that storm from being a quick mover with the NAO going positive and no high pressure to the north. The key as I mentioned this morning is keeping the low south of PA, which is going to hinge on where the boundary between the cold air and warm air ultimately lies. I think most of C-PA is sitting in a good spot for this, although the southern tier LSV is an area I'd be concerned about for mixing. This event overall strikes me as of the quick hitting 10-12hr 5-10" ish variety for the area that gets the best snow in our region. 

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