daxx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 13 minutes ago, pawatch said: Kind of a strange setup we got a dusting this morning and will another dusting overnight. And then tomorrow night you get snow from another separate wave but it combines with our first wave. I think your in good spot for the Sunday storm as of right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 36 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Ha, thanks. In all fairness I was initially keying in on Wed for similar reasons as Friday...a slug of moisture meandering around the lower Tennessee valley/Southeast though the stuff yesterday and today was further south which helped lead to it never getting picked up. I am a tad surprised Friday has not been tracked more on this forum and why I posted a few “Hey, don’t forget Friday” posts earlier this week. . Maybe everyone is tired of these 2-4” events. Here is the Euro map from the MA and ironically it is flipped vs. my forecast. 2-4 for the Candersons and Blizz’s of the forum and 1-3 for Cash and I. Wonder how much, if any, is from the a coastal energizing it a bit. I love the look of that 18z Euro for Friday.! The 18z 3k NAM & High Res Canadian also put the LSV in a good spot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 25 minutes ago, daxx said: I think your in good spot for the Sunday storm as of right now. This is for you @bubbler86 The 18z FV3-GFS says that all of CTP is in a good spot for Sunday snow! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 The 18z FV3-GFS says that all of CTP is in a good spot for Sunday snow!Hahaha, it always delivers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, anotherman said: Hahaha, it always delivers. Yes, if we cut it in half, Most of us would be happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: This is for you @bubbler86 The 18z FV3-GFS says that all of CTP is in a good spot for Sunday snow! The great thing about this map is that the GFS twins show little to now snow Friday sio this really is a foot of snow. GFS shows simlar but less generous. Not going to hug the GFS though as I threw it out for our Friday snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 We also have the 12z EPS & Control run looking good for Sunday pm snow. I like the mean low location. There is a great cluster of lows that we could score nicely with their locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 hour ago, daxx said: Bubbler l gotta give it you. You have been on this threat from the start. Also you had mentioned Miller B's earlier this week. The more I watch the NAM's evolution of Friday the more I see this being considered a type of Hybrid/Miller B vs. just simply a slug of moisture streaming over us. The coastal is really negatively affecting areas of East Central PA as to accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 NAM at 84 hours yells incoming for Sunday. One important difference between it and the GFS twins is that it is a few hundred miles east/faster with the SLP such as at 7AM on Sunday snow is already knocing on the door of Western PA where as the GFS is six hours later. Implications for extropolating but I usually do not do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 On 2/22/2019 at 1:05 PM, pasnownut said: DONT LOOK AT SNOWMAPS!! they are dream crushers and 6 hours later wet dreams. Fv3 looks like multiple threats to keep an eye on. 3/2 and 3/4 still have promise IMO. Not looking much beyond. Tellies say were heading into a good period. That's my long range for now. Once we get to Mid March it really doesn't matter as much for me anyway. Bubbler wasnt the only one likin the next few days..... just sayin.......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Bubbler wasnt the only one likin the next few days..... just sayin.......... I concur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 hour ago, bubbler86 said: Also you had mentioned Miller B's earlier this week. The more I watch the NAM's evolution of Friday the more I see this being considered a type of Hybrid/Miller B vs. just simply a slug of moisture streaming over us. The coastal is really negatively affecting areas of East Central PA as to accums. Then again the Icon delays a coastal and actually brings decent snow to East Central PA Friday night. Going to be a tough forecast for NWS Met's. The icon is a weenie run. 12" + inches for many in Souhern and Eastern PA from 3 different and distinct waves from Friday to Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 hour ago, bubbler86 said: Also you had mentioned Miller B's earlier this week. The more I watch the NAM's evolution of Friday the more I see this being considered a type of Hybrid/Miller B vs. just simply a slug of moisture streaming over us. The coastal is really negatively affecting areas of East Central PA as to accums. I was actually thinking a true Miller b where we get very little and to our northeast gets slammed. That does not look to be happening at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, daxx said: I was actually thinking a true Miller b where we get very little and to our northeast gets slammed. That does not look to be happening at all. Yea, that was why I said Hybrid...it is a very unique setup. That sharp cutoff to the moisture for say the intersection of 78 and 81 north east really suggests something other than simply dry air is stealing the energy. My defiinition of a Miller B has always been more that any given area that is seemingly going to get snow based on radar extropolation, then gets nothing as a transfer cuts off the conveyor belt, would qualify as a Miller B. We do not always have to get the screw job. Allentown can get screwed by if the same scenario happening but the coastal takes an eastern track out to sea vs. up the coast. The Icon's depiction though is neither. Everyone gets snow from wave A and or Wave B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Almost think we need to get Thur/Fri out of the way and then see what Sunday/Monday is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 And the GFS caved to the Meso's. No surprise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 3 hours ago, daxx said: Bubbler l gotta give it you. You have been on this threat from the start. Yes he has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 This is how I see the storm tracks for our area labeled below. Maps taken from another forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, daxx said: This is how I see the storm tracks for our area labeled below. There is just no designation for something similar to the second Miller B (modified) but with the low coming from the TN Valley as opposed to the Ohio Valley and the screw zone being a bit farther east when a transfer takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 I don’t expect more than a sloppy 1” Friday but bring home the big storm Sunday, my friends! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Euro looking good for Friday. Bubblers call for 2 to 4 looks good. Sunday/Monday storm definitely colder than 12z. Warning snow for central and northern pa. For us in lsv getting closer but still a good amount of rain, especially as you head southeast. Another push southeast and us on the edge will be in the game . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 20 minutes ago, daxx said: Euro looking good for Friday. Bubblers call for 2 to 4 looks good. Sunday/Monday storm definitely colder than 12z. Warning snow for central and northern pa. For us in lsv getting closer but still a good amount of rain, especially as you head southeast. Another push southeast and us on the edge will be in the game . Yes indeed! Friday should be our @bubbler86 storm! The 0z Euro put the LSV in the bullseye for Friday morning. I agree that the Euro also improved for the Sunday storm as well. It moved closer to putting all of CTP in the bullseye. We just need about a 50 mile shift southeast with the low track to put our far southern tier into the good snowfall on Sunday. Here are the Euro maps for Friday & the combined total snow amount for both events through Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 One more bit of good news from the 0z Euro.... It shows 1 more snow event next Friday that delivers a few more inches of snow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 28, 2019 Author Share Posted February 28, 2019 Awesome job guys, all of you. Bring 'em home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Looks like a 2 to 4 inch event this week, then possible bigger event for all of us Monday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Things have really come around with regards to tonight into early Fri's event as well as the Sun night/Mon one. For tonight's event I was concerned about sizable corridor of central PA effectively missing out on both yesterdays clipper (too far north) and tonight's (too far south). The NAM was def on the northern end of things and now the rest of the major suite including the GFS is on board with running a snow swath across at least the lower half of PA. Looking like a 2-3" type deal with perhaps some scattered 4-5" amounts (esp Laurel's). This end of weekend thing after looking rather disorganized the last couple days is now currently looking much more potent with yet another Gulf moisture laden system and the potential for a higher impact winter storm. Missing from this event vs previous couple is presence of high pressure to the north to aid in CAD. Thus, it is important the low tracks south of PA and not through or NW of us. Def looking like more of a gradient type storm with probably not much of a mixing/ice zone. Getting into March can start presenting cold air availablity issues for storms depending on setup but this pattern going forward into probably at least the first 2 weeks of March is primed with a ton of cold air. That coupled with a slight relaxation of the western trough (still running a -PNA) should help suppress the storm track enough to give us a good shot at this weekend event and perhaps more. Overnight Euro really ripped true central PA with some mixing issues southern tier while GFS is tracking more south and providing PA with generally all snow. Top end potential of this storm is probably going to be tempered some as wave will be progressive and the lack of the high to the north also would play into weaker u wind anomalies (low level easterly flow) with the coastal low as progged. Either way, I think all of us would sign up for 6-8" type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 28, 2019 Author Share Posted February 28, 2019 CTP with a HWO dor for a general 1-3" tonight south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes indeed! Friday should be our @bubbler86 storm! If that is the case I will add one additional accoumulation in honor of "The meaning behind Bubbler". @Boiling Springs High School 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 28, 2019 Author Share Posted February 28, 2019 36 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: If that is the case I will add one additional accoumulation in honor of "The meaning behind Bubbler". @Boiling Springs High School 2-4" 0z Ukie says Monday is also the Bubbler storm. This model used to be pretty darn reliable...time for it to get it's mojo back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 I 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: 0z Ukie says Monday is also the Bubbler storm. This model used to be pretty darn reliable...time for it to get it's mojo back... Last summer I told my real estate agent "I like snow so find me something close to @Cashtown_Coop" and this year it has paid off even if the overall numbers are not spectacular right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now