Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?

[Itstrainingtime]

@Blizzard of 93

What happened to you? Are you not aware that an accumulating snow is likely tonight and early tomorrow in the northern mountains? 

[Superstorm]

I thought of you when I was out earlier. Saw a tree down not far from here and immediately was concerned about Front Street.
It really is blowing out there...

More wind than in any storms I saw yesterday.


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[Blizzard of 93]

6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@Blizzard of 93

What happened to you? Are you not aware that an accumulating snow is likely tonight and early tomorrow in the northern mountains? 

Hello!

I checked out on the weather for a few days, but just looked earlier today. Winter Weather Advisory is posted for PA northern tier! I wonder if @pasnownut is going to his cabin to see the late season snow ?!

Also, it’s unbelievable that there is a Winter Storm Warning & snowing currently in Chicago on April 27th !

[Flatheadsickness]

Looks like day 4 could be a big day for the south central us. Would not be surprised for Pa. to get its fair share of stronger convection over the next week. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Light snow & 34 degrees at Bradford, PA 7am observation on April 28th !

Chicago had 2.5 inches of snow yesterday. 

This winter will not quit in some places with latitude not far from most of us.

[Voyager]

This weather is disgusting...that is all. 

[canderson]

Had to turn the furnace back on lol

[TheDreamTraveler]

It's COLD. My mom recently bought these special daisies that grow back every year. I told her there was a frost advisory and she didn't even know. She was making such a big deal about how hard they were to find the other week. She would have flipped out when she found them dead if I hadn't told her lmao

[Flatheadsickness]

I just came in from fixing and turning on my misting system . I found tonight very refreshing I don't think it feels to bad here in my little world. There was no frost at my house yet but the dew is heavy and getting very opaque . 

[Flatheadsickness]

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... It appears that large-scale mid-level troughing may linger across much of the intermountain region and Rockies into the middle of the coming work week, before at least one significant perturbation emerging from it accelerates across parts of the northern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest. It is possible that this could be accompanied by considerable vigorous thunderstorm development along/east and south of a dryline and surface frontal zone across the southern and central Plains into the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Wednesday, which may spread across parts of the Ohio Valley and northern Mid Atlantic Coast region on Thursday. However, the extent of any associated severe weather potential remains unclear, and may largely depend on the evolution of preceding day's convection, the predictability of which, at this time, remains relatively low. Thereafter, late this week through next weekend, stronger mid/upper flow may become more confined to a zonal regime across the northern tier of the U.S., where instability may remain too weak to support much more than relatively minor severe thunderstorm potential. ..Kerr.. 04/28/2019

[pawatch]

30 degrees and heavy frost this morning.

[Itstrainingtime]

Frosty start today, warm and somewhat humid tomorrow as we head back into the 70s. Sounds about right for late April. 

[pasnownut]

On 4/27/2019 at 4:27 PM, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hello!

I checked out on the weather for a few days, but just looked earlier today. Winter Weather Advisory is posted for PA northern tier! I wonder if @pasnownut is going to his cabin to see the late season snow ?!

Also, it’s unbelievable that there is a Winter Storm Warning & snowing currently in Chicago on April 27th !

Wife's hip replacement #1 was last Wed, so had to stay home this weekend.  Assuming she continues to improve, I'll be heading up this coming weekend.

Did look at the snow cams yesterday and saw that we had snow in a couple places.  Typical see-saw of spring.  What little i've looked, looks WET this week.  Man i hope we arent headed for a repeat of last year. 

Happy Spring all.

 

[canderson]

3 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Wife's hip replacement #1 was last Wed, so had to stay home this weekend.  Assuming she continues to improve, I'll be heading up this coming weekend.

Did look at the snow cams yesterday and saw that we had snow in a couple places.  Typical see-saw of spring.  What little i've looked, looks WET this week.  Man i hope we arent headed for a repeat of last year. 

Happy Spring all.

 

Hope her recovery is quick. It's simply amazing that hip replacements are like plug-n-play things these days. Literally the day they replace it you're walking stairs and they send you home the next. It's nuts. 

[pasnownut]

4 hours ago, canderson said:

Hope her recovery is quick. It's simply amazing that hip replacements are like plug-n-play things these days. Literally the day they replace it you're walking stairs and they send you home the next. It's nuts. 

thanks man.  Yeah, it is quite impressive.  Total hip....less than 1 hour doc was chatting w/ me and happy w/ how things went.  8 hours after surgery, she walked at 9pm and would have been sooner,  but fought nausea.  

Science while expensive, is impressive. Hoping #2 goes as well.  

Nut

[Jns2183]

Here is some perspective on our now swamp land. Up until 2011 the all-time annual rainfall record here was a seemingly unbeatable year of Agnes in 1972 with 59.27”, followed by 1889’s 57.07”. In 8 years we have obliterated 1972, twice. In 2011 with 73.73” and last years 67.03”. The fact that we did not have a single tropical system makes last year and this current run we are on (14/16 above normal months since January 2018) totally insane.

Now let us take time machine back to an era where gas cost $0.32/gal, the average price for a new home was $14,200 & a new car cost $2,650. Batman the television series along with Star Trek debuted this year, and Lyndon B Johnson was president. It was 1966 and the now swampy Central Pa was a desert by the time August ended. This was the rainfall from May - August (normals 1981-2010)

May 0.98” (3.79”)
June 0.07” (3.60”)
July 0.81” (4.61”)
Aug 1.53” (3.20”)

TOTAL 3.39” (15.20”) 77.7%
COMPARISON TO WET PERIODS FROM 2018 & 2011

From June through September last year we had 28.28” (15.48”) 82.7% > NORMAL

2011 from August through November
Aug 8.65” (3.20”)
Sept 18.43” (4.07”)
Oct 4.15” (3.27”)
Nov 4.50” (3.23”)

TOTAL 35.73” (13.77”) 159.4% > NORMAL

Since is pretty darn hard to get below normal by greater than 100% that Summer of 1966 was impressive


. Pro

[Jns2183]

The heat in 1966 was insane as well

DAYS >= 90
May 0 (1)
Jun 14 (4)
Jul 23 (8)
Aug 20 (5)
Sep 3 (2)
Annual 60 (20)

1966 holds the record for days >=90 for year (60) crushing 1944’s wimpy 48. For some reference 1991 & 2016 are 4th & 5th, respectively, on the list at 45 & 43 days. So think about how hot it was in 2016 and add 17 more days (39.5%) of 90 degree weather.

They are 2nd all-time for June & hold the records for July & August.

There are 92 days from June 1st through August 31st. In 2016 we hit >=90 34 times in those 92 days, or roughly 37%. In 1966 we hit the mark 57 days, or roughly 62% of the time. The next closest year is 1943 with 42 and 1944 with 41 times.

Looking at >=95, the annual mean is 4 days & 1966 had 28 days, 26 from June - August. In 2nd place is 1999 with 22 days, all of which came in June, July, or August. It also had an insane 18 days in July of >= 95 degree temps. 1966, in 2nd only had 12.

>=98 1966 had 12 (3 in June, 9 in July) and 1999 had 9, all in July.

>=100 1966 had 6 (1 in June, 5 in July), 1999 had 6 all in July.

But the cake is this. Although it hit 102 twice in 1999, it hit 104+ 3 times in 1966. The only other year to hit 104 was 1988. 1966 also set the all-timer at 107. Shockingly it holds no Monthly mean temperature records that summer. 2016 with its August mean temp of 79.1 beat out 1966 78.2. The all time monthly mean temp record easily goes to July 1999 with 81.8 mean, July 1955 was 2nd with 80.4. Those are the only months where the mean temp was >=80. July 1966 is actually 4th to July 2011, with Both at 79.9 but 2011 being a couple of hundredths of a degree warmer.


. Pro

[Jns2183]

I can only image the shit storm today that would happen over peoples yards if we had a June-July combo with =90 & 20 days >=95 with 6 of them 100+




. Pro

[Cashtown_Coop]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

Here is some perspective on our now swamp land. Up until 2011 the all-time annual rainfall record here was a seemingly unbeatable year of Agnes in 1972 with 59.27”, followed by 1889’s 57.07”. In 8 years we have obliterated 1972, twice. In 2011 with 73.73” and last years 67.03”. The fact that we did not have a single tropical system makes last year and this current run we are on (14/16 above normal months since January 2018) totally insane.

Now let us take time machine back to an era where gas cost $0.32/gal, the average price for a new home was $14,200 & a new car cost $2,650. Batman the television series along with Star Trek debuted this year, and Lyndon B Johnson was president. It was 1966 and the now swampy Central Pa was a desert by the time August ended. This was the rainfall from May - August (normals 1981-2010)

May 0.98” (3.79”)
June 0.07” (3.60”)
July 0.81” (4.61”)
Aug 1.53” (3.20”)

TOTAL 3.39” (15.20”) 77.7%
COMPARISON TO WET PERIODS FROM 2018 & 2011

From June through September last year we had 28.28” (15.48”) 82.7% > NORMAL

2011 from August through November
Aug 8.65” (3.20”)
Sept 18.43” (4.07”)
Oct 4.15” (3.27”)
Nov 4.50” (3.23”)

TOTAL 35.73” (13.77”) 159.4% > NORMAL

Since is pretty darn hard to get below normal by greater than 100% that Summer of 1966 was impressive


. Pro

I don’t have the data going back that far but I did the numbers for the last 2 years to see how wet 2019 was compared to 2018.

 

The first 4 months of 2018 I recorded 17.29” of precip and so far this year I’m at 18.82” for the same period. Now I realize it’s going to be hard to get the 11.93”(July) 12.45” (September) and 8.77” (November) monthly totals from last year but still officially this year is starting off wetter than last.   

[Superstorm]

I don’t have the data going back that far but I did the numbers for the last 2 years to see how wet 2019 was compared to 2018.
 
The first 4 months of 2018 I recorded 17.29” of precip and so far this year I’m at 18.82” for the same period. Now I realize it’s going to be hard to get the 11.93”(July) 12.45” (September) and 8.77” (November) monthly totals from last year but still officially this year is starting off wetter than last.   

Hurricane or Tropical Storm can make up the difference.


.

[Superstorm]

I don’t have the data going back that far but I did the numbers for the last 2 years to see how wet 2019 was compared to 2018.
 
The first 4 months of 2018 I recorded 17.29” of precip and so far this year I’m at 18.82” for the same period. Now I realize it’s going to be hard to get the 11.93”(July) 12.45” (September) and 8.77” (November) monthly totals from last year but still officially this year is starting off wetter than last.   

Hurricane or Tropical Storm can make up the difference.


.

[Cashtown_Coop]

2 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Hurricane or Tropical Storm can make up the difference.


.

You’re absolutely right.   It’s hard believe we achieved 2018 numbers without a tropical system as @Jns2183 pointed out above.  

[Jns2183]

I don’t have the data going back that far but I did the numbers for the last 2 years to see how wet 2019 was compared to 2018.
 
The first 4 months of 2018 I recorded 17.29” of precip and so far this year I’m at 18.82” for the same period. Now I realize it’s going to be hard to get the 11.93”(July) 12.45” (September) and 8.77” (November) monthly totals from last year but still officially this year is starting off wetter than last.   

At KMDT
7/21 1.66”
7/22 1.04”
7/23 3.26”
7/24. 2.03”
7/25. 1.39”

9.38” in 5 straight days. We had 12.09” for the month, so >77%.

Sep 2011. TS Lee and beforehand
9/4. 1.33”
9/5. 1.32”
9/6. 2.02”
9/7 7.71”
9/8. 1.00”

13.38” in 5 days, 72.5% of 18.43” month

June 1972. Agnes
6/21. 5.81”
9/22 9.13”

14.94” in 2 days, 80.5% of 18.55”



. Pro

[Jns2183]

I wonder how many times it has rained >=1” for 5 consecutive days here.

Now how many times has it done that without any tropical Influence


. Pro

[Jns2183]

On our top precipitation list
#1 is separated from #5 by 19.1”
#5 from #10 by 5.4”
#10 from #15 by 1.99”
#15 from #20 by 1.16”
#20 from #25 by 0.90”

If we are in the top #25 then we are in the top 20%. #25 is only 45.18”, 4.44” above our 1981-2010 average of 40.74”, which we hit last year sometime in the evening on 8/3. In 2011 it took us till 8/28. In 1972 it took until 7/31


. Pro

[Itstrainingtime]

3 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

The heat in 1966 was insane as well

DAYS >= 90
May 0 (1)
Jun 14 (4)
Jul 23 (8)
Aug 20 (5)
Sep 3 (2)
Annual 60 (20)

1966 holds the record for days >=90 for year (60) crushing 1944’s wimpy 48. For some reference 1991 & 2016 are 4th & 5th, respectively, on the list at 45 & 43 days. So think about how hot it was in 2016 and add 17 more days (39.5%) of 90 degree weather.

They are 2nd all-time for June & hold the records for July & August.

There are 92 days from June 1st through August 31st. In 2016 we hit >=90 34 times in those 92 days, or roughly 37%. In 1966 we hit the mark 57 days, or roughly 62% of the time. The next closest year is 1943 with 42 and 1944 with 41 times.

Looking at >=95, the annual mean is 4 days & 1966 had 28 days, 26 from June - August. In 2nd place is 1999 with 22 days, all of which came in June, July, or August. It also had an insane 18 days in July of >= 95 degree temps. 1966, in 2nd only had 12.

>=98 1966 had 12 (3 in June, 9 in July) and 1999 had 9, all in July.

>=100 1966 had 6 (1 in June, 5 in July), 1999 had 6 all in July.

But the cake is this. Although it hit 102 twice in 1999, it hit 104+ 3 times in 1966. The only other year to hit 104 was 1988. 1966 also set the all-timer at 107. Shockingly it holds no Monthly mean temperature records that summer. 2016 with its August mean temp of 79.1 beat out 1966 78.2. The all time monthly mean temp record easily goes to July 1999 with 81.8 mean, July 1955 was 2nd with 80.4. Those are the only months where the mean temp was >=80. July 1966 is actually 4th to July 2011, with Both at 79.9 but 2011 being a couple of hundredths of a degree warmer.


. Pro

Man, I remember that heatwave...if memory serves me correctly I think we were in the mid-90s by 10am on one of those days. Just insane heat for these parts. 

A lot of posts on this page for April 29th.  

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

Looks like a wonderfully soaked weekend for my weekend at Hersheypark Campground ⛺️

[Blizzard of 93]

3 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

On our top precipitation list
#1 is separated from #5 by 19.1”
#5 from #10 by 5.4”
#10 from #15 by 1.99”
#15 from #20 by 1.16”
#20 from #25 by 0.90”

If we are in the top #25 then we are in the top 20%. #25 is only 45.18”, 4.44” above our 1981-2010 average of 40.74”, which we hit last year sometime in the evening on 8/3. In 2011 it took us till 8/28. In 1972 it took until 7/31


. Pro

Great posts today !

Thanks for all of the stats & info.

If you have the time someday, could you please post some stats for our coldest summers on record ?

[Itstrainingtime]

12 hours ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

Looks like a wonderfully soaked weekend for my weekend at Hersheypark Campground ⛺️

That sucks, we're season pass holders and are hoping to get a few hours in on either Saturday or Sunday. 

[canderson]

12 hours ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

Looks like a wonderfully soaked weekend for my weekend at Hersheypark Campground ⛺️

It doesn't appear to be too bad - just some passing showers but not a wash out.