Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?

[pasnownut]

Looks like Junior G wants to keep hope alive for Friday.  Still think that with any earlier dig that something could happen would be NE Pa and points NE.  IT is close enough to watch, even if its a close miss.  500's show it, but gotta say that I'm about ready to hang my snow hat up for the season, as i've got alot to do and tracking takes away from that time. 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 12z Euro still is looking good for a winter storm for our region during the middle of next week. The Low passes to our south & moves very slowly as a cold High presses south.

Right now the bullseye is to the south of CTP, right where would would like it to be at 8 days out!

 

[Blizzard of 93]

7 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Looks like Junior G wants to keep hope alive for Friday.  Still think that with any earlier dig that something could happen would be NE Pa and points NE.  IT is close enough to watch, even if its a close miss.  500's show it, but gotta say that I'm about ready to hang my snow hat up for the season, as i've got alot to do and tracking takes away from that time. 

 

Don’t retire for the season just yet. This could be our best storm since November!

[Blizzard of 93]

Last year through today, MDT was sitting at just 19.5 inches of snow. It’s crazy to know that 18 more inches of snow were yet to fall before we were done in April last year!  We really had a long wait to get to our 37.5 inch seasonal total last year.

Hopefully we are not done adding to our 40.9 inches of snow at MDT this season!

[daxx]

18z Euro really increased rainfall amounts for Thursday and Thursday night.  1 to 2 inches over a good portion of the lsv.  

[daxx]

00z nam is a good 2 to 3+ inches of rain for most of eastern pa Thursday.   If only we had good airmass.  

[Blizzard of 93]

At the end of the 00z NAM run, it flips over a good portion of CTP to snow as the low deepens off of the NJ coast.

if the low develops & deepens further south, just offshore toward the VA coast, then maybe we could see more snow out of this.

Most likely, this will not develop in time for us, but New England could get crushed with snow.

[daxx]

The gfs and the fv3 show a lot less precip. I hope the gfs is right. I don’t want the rain.  

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, daxx said:

The gfs and the fv3 show a lot less precip. I hope the gfs is right. I don’t want the rain.  

I’m ok waiting until next week for snow if need be!

[daxx]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’m ok waiting until next week for snow if need be!

Blizz I think we do have better chance next week. I think it is a low chance but it is our best shot.   We still could see something out of this weeks event. I’m doubtful but it can happen. 

[Festus]

Here's one for you astronomical buffs.  Spring officially arrives Wednesday at 5:58 PM when the solar vertical ray crosses the equator.  But today, the sunrise to sunset time is 12 hours, 4 minutes.  Why is that time greater than 12 hours before the equinox?

[Blizzard of 93]

The EPS looks good for next week with a low passing to our south & off the coast. The snow mean is starting to respond a little bit as well through day 9.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

A cold 24.6 to start the day in Maytown...

Someone is going to bust badly on Thursday/Friday as most media outlets are calling for a few scattered showers which seems to contradict the Euro/NAM output...

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Festus said:

Here's one for you astronomical buffs.  Spring officially arrives Wednesday at 5:58 PM when the solar vertical ray crosses the equator.  But today, the sunrise to sunset time is 12 hours, 4 minutes.  Why is that time greater than 12 hours before the equinox?

my guess...earth axis and where we sit on it.  

edit - googled to check my guess and i think im onto something

"Earth's axis is tilted 23.5 degrees from the plane of its orbit around the sun. But this tilt changes. During a cycle that averages about 40,000 years, the tilt of the axis varies between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees.". 

[Itstrainingtime]

I admit I know very little about astronomy. I must have been daydreaming about snowstorms during that class in school. 

[CarlislePaWx]

34 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

my guess...earth axis and where we sit on it.  

edit - googled to check my guess and i think im onto something

"Earth's axis is tilted 23.5 degrees from the plane of its orbit around the sun. But this tilt changes. During a cycle that averages about 40,000 years, the tilt of the axis varies between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees.". 

Based on that information I would have to say that we are currently tilted slightly less than 23.5 degrees as it would seem this would shorten the amount of time we spend with less than 12 hours of daylight between the fall and spring equinoxes.  I do know and have known that in September it usually isn't until 2 to 3 days after the equinox that we drop below 12 hours of daylight.  The converse should then be true that if our tilt is greater than 23.5 degrees we would experience the 12 hour daylight mark several days after the spring and before the fall equinoxes.

To prove my theory we need to find out what the current exact tilt is.  Now on to search for that info...

[pasnownut]

17 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Based on that information I would have to say that we are currently tilted slightly less than 23.5 degrees as it would seem this would shorten the amount of time we spend with less than 12 hours of daylight between the fall and spring equinoxes.  I do know and have known that in September it usually isn't until 2 to 3 days after the equinox that we drop below 12 hours of daylight.  The converse should then be true that if our tilt is greater than 23.5 degrees we would experience the 12 hour daylight mark several days after the spring and before the fall equinoxes.

To prove my theory we need to find out what the current exact tilt is.  Now on to search for that info...

correct.  because we are tilted TOWARDS the sun in the NH, we have greater duration of sunlight.  Thats my theory anyway.

[psuhoffman]

Unfortunately, since the setup looked like a weak OTS system, it kind of went unnoticed that the antecedent airmass was degrading to the point that even if we get the bomb scenario now its likely mostly rain outside higher elevations.  The setup this week reminds me a little of 2001 where everyone was waiting for a north trend and a more amplified system and then when it happened...it trended all the way north to a northern New England snowstorm lol.  This didn't have the 24-36 hour super tease in between the south and north solutions though.  What was has always been interesting to me in retrospect was how that storm in 2001 only really teased us for 24-36 hours as the guidance shifted north.  I think some just had anticipated the north shift all week so when the storm did continue shifting north it felt like a longer/bigger tease than it actually was.  

Next week has potential.  I am not in the camp that it cannot end up suppressed though.  Just last year we had a system suppressed and squashed in April.  Time of year doesn't matter...it can get suppressed in June we just don't care since its rain.  The flow suppresses not cold...often those two go together but its not 1;1.   Not saying I favor that solution but I am not discounting it either.  

[daxx]

3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

A cold 24.6 to start the day in Maytown...

Someone is going to bust badly on Thursday/Friday as most media outlets are calling for a few scattered showers which seems to contradict the Euro/NAM output...

Yea... we might go from a few scattered showers to flood watches.  

[canderson]

3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I admit I know very little about astronomy. I must have been daydreaming about snowstorms during that class in school. 

I took astronomy my sophomore year in college. I went the first day, got the syllabus, then went for the midterm and final. Never bought the book - a friend took it the semester before so I just read hers and took the exams and aced it.

.... I know nothing about astronomy. Good credit usage there huh lol. 

[canderson]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Unfortunately, since the setup looked like a weak OTS system, it kind of went unnoticed that the antecedent airmass was degrading to the point that even if we get the bomb scenario now its likely mostly rain outside higher elevations.  The setup this week reminds me a little of 2001 where everyone was waiting for a north trend and a more amplified system and then when it happened...it trended all the way north to a northern New England snowstorm lol.  This didn't have the 24-36 hour super tease in between the south and north solutions though.  What was has always been interesting to me in retrospect was how that storm in 2001 only really teased us for 24-36 hours as the guidance shifted north.  I think some just had anticipated the north shift all week so when the storm did continue shifting north it felt like a longer/bigger tease than it actually was.  

Next week has potential.  I am not in the camp that it cannot end up suppressed though.  Just last year we had a system suppressed and squashed in April.  Time of year doesn't matter...it can get suppressed in June we just don't care since its rain.  The flow suppresses not cold...often those two go together but its not 1;1.   Not saying I favor that solution but I am not discounting it either.  

Please, please stick around.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

I took astronomy my sophomore year in college. I went the first day, got the syllabus, then went for the midterm and final. Never bought the book - a friend took it the semester before so I just read hers and took the exams and aced it.

.... I know nothing about astronomy. Good credit usage there huh lol. 

You must have been a Longhorn to pull something like that off. 

[sauss06]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You must have been a Longhorn to pull something like that off. 

he's a Longhorn alright, he has a wife AND a fiance.....remember 

[WmsptWx]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Next week has potential.

I will punch everybody. No more. 

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I will punch everybody. No more. 

It’s going to be cold and miserable for a couple days so might as well snow. 

[Festus]

8 hours ago, Festus said:

Here's one for you astronomical buffs.  Spring officially arrives Wednesday at 5:58 PM when the solar vertical ray crosses the equator.  But today, the sunrise to sunset time is 12 hours, 4 minutes.  Why is that time greater than 12 hours before the equinox?

My guess is that with the sun right on the horizon, the atmosphere bends the light a smidge making the sun appear a little sooner than it actually is.  But beats me if this is right.

[pasnownut]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s going to be cold and miserable for a couple days so might as well snow. 

and would be fitting, in with a bang, out with a bang.

wouldnt surprise me one bit.  It'll go right to 70 week after too......watch.  

[pasnownut]

15 minutes ago, Festus said:

My guess is that with the sun right on the horizon, the atmosphere bends the light a smidge making the sun appear a little sooner than it actually is.  But beats me if this is right.

look at the US in realation to tilt axis in Spring vs fall.

below in spring we are facing the sun vs fall we are not.  That IMO is the difference, even though we are rotaing at same speed yada yada.  thats where the tilt helps us in the spring, a little longer in the light.  Make sense??

  

[CarlislePaWx]

4 hours ago, pasnownut said:

look at the US in realation to tilt axis in Spring vs fall.

below in spring we are facing the sun vs fall we are not.  That IMO is the difference, even though we are rotaing at same speed yada yada.  thats where the tilt helps us in the spring, a little longer in the light.  Make sense??

  

Sorry to have to disagree with you, but I don't believe your logic above is the answer to the original question.  Remember what I proposed?  We actually have precisely 12 hours of day and night roughly 2 to 3 days BEFORE the spring equinox, and 2 to 3 days AFTER the autumnal equinox.  I surmised that the cause of this slight timing abnormality would be based upon the departure of the earth's tilt away from 23.5 degrees.  I also said that I believed we would likely have to be tilted slightly less than 23.5 degrees to experience this timing phenomenon.  Upon further research I found that we currently are titled 23.4 degrees away and that the direction is decreasing, heading towards 22.1 degrees in that 41,000 year cycle.  This confirms my earlier statement and assumption.  It also means that in very minute increments (a few seconds) each year the amount of time we reach precisely 12 hours will occur sooner before spring and later after fall equinoxes.

[CarlislePaWx]

5 hours ago, Festus said:

My guess is that with the sun right on the horizon, the atmosphere bends the light a smidge making the sun appear a little sooner than it actually is.  But beats me if this is right.

 

5 hours ago, pasnownut said:

look at the US in realation to tilt axis in Spring vs fall.

below in spring we are facing the sun vs fall we are not.  That IMO is the difference, even though we are rotaing at same speed yada yada.  thats where the tilt helps us in the spring, a little longer in the light.  Make sense??

  

Guys...I went to timeanddate.com and read through their explanations.  They specifically have @Festus' reasoning as one explanation for this issue.  @pasnownut I see you copied the map from timeanddate here.  I'm still trying to figure out the relationship to that map and how it accounts for the issue we were discussing.  I will say that there does not seem to be any discussion that would confirm my presumption as state above.  So, for the time being I still think I might be on the right track with my thinking, but I'm not sure it is the ONLY reason why.  BTW, I just wanted you to know that I wasn't trying to come across as a "know-it-all" with what I said above.  I found the idea exciting actually and I wanted to try and find an answer.  Also, timeanddate says that latitude also plays a role, and in some cases a significant role in the answer.  So...plenty food for thought while we wait for next week's snowstorm...lol.