Blizzard of 93 Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 4 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 6z GEFS is still “targeting” southern PA & northern MD with some Clipper snow by early Monday am. It looks like the “jackpot” winners would be @Cashtown_Coop , @Bubbler86 , @showmethesnow & , @psuhoffman The 12z GFS says that @Bubbler86 & @psuhoffman are the only winners with our Clipper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 A few snow flurries currently in Marysville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 The GFS-FV3 targets southern PA with the Clipper tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 The GFS-FV3 still has not given up on the late week coastal storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 The 12z Euro is also still trying to get a storm going off of the coast later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 21 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Please post here more often! The Mid Atlantic thread is tough to read unless you, @showmethesnow & @Bob ChiII are posting. Today in particular that long range thread was brutal. Normally I enjoy scrolling through it each day, but lately the bad posts have been out numbering the good. We have a good group here & many are from southern PA, so our climo is similar to yours. Hopefully we get to score some more snow before we are done for good this season! I should post here more. I like the mid Atlantic forum but it’s in full meltdown right now. Way to any people on edge and whiny about everything. The clipper looks to have such a narrow precipitation band associated with it that it’s kind of going to be a nowcast thing. The coastal is highly unlikely but not 100% dead. There is some fairly potent upper level energy diving through but the flow over the top is pretty progressive. If we could get the NS to dig in further west and allow more ridging in front maybe. Some runs are still close enough and lead times long enough that I’ll casually watch it but I don’t expect anything. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I should post here more. I like the mid Atlantic forum but it’s in full meltdown right now. Way to any people on edge and whiny about everything. The clipper looks to have such a narrow precipitation band associated with it that it’s kind of going to be a nowcast thing. The coastal is highly unlikely but not 100% dead. There is some fairly potent upper level energy diving through but the flow over the top is pretty progressive. If we could get the NS to dig in further west and allow more ridging in front maybe. Some runs are still close enough and lead times long enough that I’ll casually watch it but I don’t expect anything. I agree, the Clipper looks to only have maybe a 50 mile or so precip band, & who ever “jackpots” will be lucky to see 1 or 2 inches of snow. I wouldn’t mind being in that small zone ! The coastal is a long shot, but it will be interesting to see if anything develops that could even have a small impact. Do you think this week is our last chance at any snow this season ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 53 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I agree, the Clipper looks to only have maybe a 50 mile or so precip band, & who ever “jackpots” will be lucky to see 1 or 2 inches of snow. I wouldn’t mind being in that small zone ! The coastal is a long shot, but it will be interesting to see if anything develops that could even have a small impact. Do you think this week is our last chance at any snow this season ? My worry with the clipper is that it has been mostly a GFS thing and we all have our opinion on models but the GFS in my eyes has been abhorrent as of late including several consective days of temp busts. So hard to trust where the stripe of snow, if any, may be. The temps seem so marginal so I am not sure it can lay on the roads even at night without better rates than being depicted Late week just does not have any a lot of surface cold air to work so need a monster creating its own for snow in South PA even if it comes a little closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 16, 2019 Share Posted March 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I agree, the Clipper looks to only have maybe a 50 mile or so precip band, & who ever “jackpots” will be lucky to see 1 or 2 inches of snow. I wouldn’t mind being in that small zone ! The coastal is a long shot, but it will be interesting to see if anything develops that could even have a small impact. Do you think this week is our last chance at any snow this season ? Do I think it will snow again after this week...no. But could it yes. It looks like a couple systems could cut across mostly cut off under the NS in the long range. Odds highly favor rain but it looks chilly and could one of those interact with the NS just enough to snow? Sure. But I wouldn’t bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 14 hours ago, Atomixwx said: It was damn near 80°F yesterday. Winter can fack off. Im with ya!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 The 0z GFS-FV3 gets the coastal going later this week in time for eastern PA & says congrats to @Voyager ! This run crushes coastal NJ, NYC & SNE with heavy snow. The rest of us just need this model to shift about 100 miles or so to the west. It would also be great to get just about every other model onboard for this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 thx blizz. Looking over overnights, it looks like the coastal idea is still on life support for our region. Most models have it, but well SE for us. Not sure I'm gonna say "right where we want it" but its got a lot of work to do and the progressive theme of the year argues against the phasing for our region. Fv3 shows the late phase and gives us a reminder that Boston is a good place for snow. Most other models keep it a fishy storm and trough 500 flow just keeps it east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z GFS-FV3 gets the coastal going later this week in time for eastern PA & says congrats to @Voyager ! This run crushes coastal NJ, NYC & SNE with heavy snow. The rest of us just need this model to shift about 100 miles or so to the west. It would also be great to get just about every other model onboard for this storm! That’s a lot of white over the area. If only that meant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 22 hours ago, Atomixwx said: It was damn near 80°F yesterday. Winter can fack off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Voyager said: If the FV3 is right, you will be shoveling later this week ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: If the FV3 is right, you will be shoveling later this week ! Oh boy, I'd better have a look...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Not a lot going on right now but clipper radar looks betetr than progged though I did not check what is and is not reaching the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Not a lot going on right now but clipper radar looks betetr than progged though I did not check what is and is not reaching the ground. Unfortunately, instead of just moving the precip east, most models take what little precip that survives the mountains, to the south of the MD line tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 The Euro Control likes the period around day 10 for snow for most of CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Yea, just had to post something other than my temp for the day. LOL. But there is no way I would rule out snow for anyone in the LSV and southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 We are staring down a mini drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 6 hours ago, canderson said: We are staring down a mini drought. My ground is sooooooooooo saturated. With that snow and quick warm up, i have water seeping into my basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 We ended up with a dusting on colder surfaces. Too warm for the pavement. Looks like some snow in Cumberland county right now...if reading the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 37 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We ended up with a dusting on colder surfaces. Too warm for the pavement. Looks like some snow in Cumberland county right now...if reading the ground. The Euro Op develops the coastal storm this week too late for our region. However, next week, it tracks a low under us while cold is pressing. It delivers a good swath of snow for CTP next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The Euro Op develops the coastal storm this week too late for our region. However, next week, it tracks a low under us while cold is pressing. It delivers a good swath of snow for CTP next week. I personally do think next week is our best chance. The surface is torching this week so if a coastal just grazes us and throws precip back over the area it is going to be rain. We need a coastal tucked in the Southern DelMarVa and bombing out to bring cold down the backside into the N/W Deform zone. Take the FV3 at hour 90 (6Z run) and notice how it actually tries to form a feeder band over us at the last moment when interacting with the front coming from the West. However it is 40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 18, 2019 Author Share Posted March 18, 2019 On 3/16/2019 at 4:29 PM, psuhoffman said: I should post here more. I like the mid Atlantic forum but it’s in full meltdown right now. Way to any people on edge and whiny about everything. The clipper looks to have such a narrow precipitation band associated with it that it’s kind of going to be a nowcast thing. The coastal is highly unlikely but not 100% dead. There is some fairly potent upper level energy diving through but the flow over the top is pretty progressive. If we could get the NS to dig in further west and allow more ridging in front maybe. Some runs are still close enough and lead times long enough that I’ll casually watch it but I don’t expect anything. This is my first chance to respond to this as I was busy over the weekend, but I'd like to share a few thoughts... Personally, your analysis and knowledge would be a nice asset to this sub forum. My biggest takeaway from reading your thoughts for many years is that you excel in detailing how things could go right AND wrong with any potential winter event. I for one want to hear the "realistic" thoughts as time often proves that it's best to temper expectations and shed the rose-colored glasses. Fact is, how many dozens of feet of snow did models depict this winter for what ended up being about 3' - 4' of ground truth? Additionally, your climate fits in much better with our sub than it does for the vast majority of the mid-Atlantic, even if by definition of established boundaries you belong posting there. I have a lot of mixed emotions about your home sub. Because a lot of our potential winter weather enters our area from the south and southwest most of us read your sub regularly to get information that will be helpful to us. Yet trying to get the vast majority of people down there to understand that is impossible. I've never seen a group of people that are so obsessive about keeping others out. Yes, there have been a couple of knuckleheads like snowstorm5921 or whatever his name is/was go down there and muck things up...fact is, he was never one of "us" as to my knowledge he NEVER posted in his own sub. Anyway, it's kind of sad to see the number of really, really good posters down there who seldom post anymore. Matt, (Deck Pic) Ian, Mitch, Wes, and I guess Bob have all grown tired of the endless nonsense and moved on. I counted on their insight to help me get a better idea on what WE could expect up here. Shame what has happened. At least you still have Ji. I wish both you and @showmethesnow would consider sharing thoughts with us a little more often. You both are very good posters and you both have climate that fits our sub better than where you normally post. Something I hope you both at least consider going into winter 2019-20. By the way, I completely, 100% resonate with some of your snow "criteria". Like you, a 2-4" snowfall in January is not the same to me as it is in March. Once we get past the first few days of March I'm switching my focus on big game hunting. 2" of snow that falls on 3/18 just doesn't do anything for me at all. It's not that i don't want it, but it doesn't have the same curb appeal as it does in the dead of winter. Really, anything less than 4" is most likely history within the first few hours of sun. My bar for snow by this point of the season is enough that a full day of March sun does not torch the entire pack. From reading your posts I think that generally, you feel the same way as I do. It's go big or go home time now. Thank you for your contributions... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 26 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: This is my first chance to respond to this as I was busy over the weekend, but I'd like to share a few thoughts... Personally, your analysis and knowledge would be a nice asset to this sub forum. My biggest takeaway from reading your thoughts for many years is that you excel in detailing how things could go right AND wrong with any potential winter event. I for one want to hear the "realistic" thoughts as time often proves that it's best to temper expectations and shed the rose-colored glasses. Fact is, how many dozens of feet of snow did models depict this winter for what ended up being about 3' - 4' of ground truth? Additionally, your climate fits in much better with our sub than it does for the vast majority of the mid-Atlantic, even if by definition of established boundaries you belong posting there. I have a lot of mixed emotions about your home sub. Because a lot of our potential winter weather enters our area from the south and southwest most of us read your sub regularly to get information that will be helpful to us. Yet trying to get the vast majority of people down there to understand that is impossible. I've never seen a group of people that are so obsessive about keeping others out. Yes, there have been a couple of knuckleheads like snowstorm5921 or whatever his name is/was go down there and muck things up...fact is, he was never one of "us" as to my knowledge he NEVER posted in his own sub. Anyway, it's kind of sad to see the number of really, really good posters down there who seldom post anymore. Matt, (Deck Pic) Ian, Mitch, Wes, and I guess Bob have all grown tired of the endless nonsense and moved on. I counted on their insight to help me get a better idea on what WE could expect up here. Shame what has happened. At least you still have Ji. I wish both you and @showmethesnow would consider sharing thoughts with us a little more often. You both are very good posters and you both have climate that fits our sub better than where you normally post. Something I hope you both at least consider going into winter 2019-20. By the way, I completely, 100% resonate with some of your snow "criteria". Like you, a 2-4" snowfall in January is not the same to me as it is in March. Once we get past the first few days of March I'm switching my focus on big game hunting. 2" of snow that falls on 3/18 just doesn't do anything for me at all. It's not that i don't want it, but it doesn't have the same curb appeal as it does in the dead of winter. Really, anything less than 4" is most likely history within the first few hours of sun. My bar for snow by this point of the season is enough that a full day of March sun does not torch the entire pack. From reading your posts I think that generally, you feel the same way as I do. It's go big or go home time now. Thank you for your contributions... Agree 100%! One of the first things I look for in the morning is his post down there. The guy should be a red tagger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 While we're in the midst of discussing our weather I came across the following news article that I felt anyone in here would find interesting who has even a passing interest in climatology and breaking records. Turns out that extended trough (-PNA) out in the west really produced amazing cold out there during February into March. Here's the link (and title of the article): Montana Just Endured One of the Nation's Most Exceptional Cold Spells on Record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: This is my first chance to respond to this as I was busy over the weekend, but I'd like to share a few thoughts... Personally, your analysis and knowledge would be a nice asset to this sub forum. My biggest takeaway from reading your thoughts for many years is that you excel in detailing how things could go right AND wrong with any potential winter event. I for one want to hear the "realistic" thoughts as time often proves that it's best to temper expectations and shed the rose-colored glasses. Fact is, how many dozens of feet of snow did models depict this winter for what ended up being about 3' - 4' of ground truth? Additionally, your climate fits in much better with our sub than it does for the vast majority of the mid-Atlantic, even if by definition of established boundaries you belong posting there. I have a lot of mixed emotions about your home sub. Because a lot of our potential winter weather enters our area from the south and southwest most of us read your sub regularly to get information that will be helpful to us. Yet trying to get the vast majority of people down there to understand that is impossible. I've never seen a group of people that are so obsessive about keeping others out. Yes, there have been a couple of knuckleheads like snowstorm5921 or whatever his name is/was go down there and muck things up...fact is, he was never one of "us" as to my knowledge he NEVER posted in his own sub. Anyway, it's kind of sad to see the number of really, really good posters down there who seldom post anymore. Matt, (Deck Pic) Ian, Mitch, Wes, and I guess Bob have all grown tired of the endless nonsense and moved on. I counted on their insight to help me get a better idea on what WE could expect up here. Shame what has happened. At least you still have Ji. I wish both you and @showmethesnow would consider sharing thoughts with us a little more often. You both are very good posters and you both have climate that fits our sub better than where you normally post. Something I hope you both at least consider going into winter 2019-20. By the way, I completely, 100% resonate with some of your snow "criteria". Like you, a 2-4" snowfall in January is not the same to me as it is in March. Once we get past the first few days of March I'm switching my focus on big game hunting. 2" of snow that falls on 3/18 just doesn't do anything for me at all. It's not that i don't want it, but it doesn't have the same curb appeal as it does in the dead of winter. Really, anything less than 4" is most likely history within the first few hours of sun. My bar for snow by this point of the season is enough that a full day of March sun does not torch the entire pack. From reading your posts I think that generally, you feel the same way as I do. It's go big or go home time now. Thank you for your contributions... I used to post up here years ago when I lived in PA for a while. The only reason I post more down in the Mid Atlantic was at the time I moved back their forum was way more active. During down times when nothing is imminent this thread can sometimes go dormant for a while. But I think I will bounce back and forth more often. The discussion up here seems to be more level headed right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I used to post up here years ago when I lived in PA for a while. The only reason I post more down in the Mid Atlantic was at the time I moved back their forum was way more active. During down times when nothing is imminent this thread can sometimes go dormant for a while. But I think I will bounce back and forth more often. The discussion up here seems to be more level headed right now. Yeah, please stick around. We're a great group of posters and usually have no drama. Well we had a little a few weeks ago for some reason I'm not sure about but I think it's all settled down again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now