Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?

[MAG5035]

43 minutes ago, daxx said:

This is just my opinion so here it is..models were pretty damn good.  We all got pretty close to what was modeled.  I know to us an inch or two here is huge but in reality that is not.  The warm layer in the upper levels surged a little further north and east which caused and icy structure to the flakes as you went further east in the lsv.  Take that out of the equation and we might have tacked on an inch or two more here in eastern part of the lsv. All said a great three days!

They did pretty well overall. The biggest issue with the models in the short range for our region was the more amped NAM and Euro shifting southeast a tad and tightening up the heavy snow axis, which made what was looking like a pretty widespread 6"+ over most of western and central PA in the 48-60hr range to where it ended up being. Track ended up not being an issue, as it was actually a very good track for the precip shield to impact the whole area as was evidenced by the majority of the state seeing at least a couple inches. It just ended up being a tight heavy snow axis, which is a hat tip to the Euro inside 48 hours after it shifted. But we did pretty well for the progressive nature of the system. You need at least two of three things to get the big snowstorm traditionally. A sizable western ridge, downstream blocking/canadian high pressure in place,  and phasing of the jet streams. We had none of those things with this event, so the top end was limited. Once the storm was offshore and impacting New England it was able to tap into Atlantic moisture and the gradient between the warm water and a pretty cold airmass and robust 850-700 forcing likely set up that narrow band of excessive snows. 

[MAG5035]

Was out getting everything cleaned the rest of the way up a little bit ago. I also revisited the half of my deck I haven't bothered with since about Feb 12th and got measurement of the pack (needed a metal flat shovel for both things). Running roughly a 7-10" pack on most of the yard except for near the tree line on my one property edge. 

First pic is about a 30 pound chunk of frozen sleet/ice dislodged off the deck under the new snow from Fri and yesterday. Second one is the whole snowpack. You can see how solid the bottom half of it is. This stuff is going to take awhile to melt. 

 

[sauss06]

16 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

@canderson had asked about it the other day - there are a number of times that MDT reported more than a trace and even more than an inch for 3 straight days but based on time used to make those reports I am not sure that many of those are from 3 separate systems. 

January 24-27 2004 and February 15-18 2003 had 4 straight days of at least 1"

As someone else pointed out last night - their totals for the last 3 days are suspicious.   They are currently reporting 4.2" for the 1st with .42" liquid, 1.2" for the 2nd with .24" liquid, and 6.8" for yesterday with .69" liquid. 

i put 10.75" for the 3 events in my journal. 

[djr5001]

The wind has really started to pick up here in the last hour - with the drier air moving in with this wind and some march sunshine temps won't have to get above the freezing mark across the LSV the next few days to eat away at this snow unfortunately.  Had a depth of 8" this morning so curious to see what that is down to later today. 

[canderson]

Had a three-day total of 11.5". Year now up to 41.6". 

Truly amazing I'm above climo with the pattern. 

I'm a bit bummed PHL only got 1" - my nephew's fiance has never seen snow before and they're in town Tuesday through Thursday and hoped she could play in some in a park somewhere. I thiiiiink they're headed to Connecticut on Thursday though so she's see all the snow she can handle up there - holy crap they got hammered overnight. 

[pasnownut]

53 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

You mentioned bias and that is a sticking point with me.  I think many model biaes are rumors that spread on boards like these are not based in reality.  The FV3 over amps systems is a legit bias. The Nam at 84 hours is "out of range" is not in my opinion.  Here is an offical NWS list of known biases.  Not sure if this is the only one.   If you check out this list it looks like they are picking on the GFS but it has also been around a long time. 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml#NAM

 

Speaking of the NAM at 84, it is already on top of our Friday snow :-). 

 

 

Im not sure how long you've been at this, but biases are most definitely not a fallacy. 

Euro holds troughs in the SW 

GFS warm thermal fields

Fv3 cold and snowy

NAM cold thermal fields, snowy and overamped.

CMC amped

ICON - lost

and these are just off the top of my head, i didnt look at the real list.  

 

[CarlislePaWx]

1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

With me, retaining snowpack is almost as important as snow itself.   This next 5 day period might be the best all winter for that.    Plus someone might go below 0 if they maximize the snowcover and radiational cooling.    

My final was 5.9” from .57” liquid 

My final was 4.9" with 0.53" of liquid producing an SLR of just a hair under 10:1 (9.2:1).  3-day storm total was 11.7" (3.8 + 3.0 + 4.9).  Last night I incorrectly said it was 11.5".

Very wintry look out there this morning.  Lots of trees still have snow stuck to them as the wind hasn't been strong enough to blow it all off.  Plus, temp isn't rising and has been stuck at 32 with the sun popping in and out.  Looking forward to tonight to see how well we can radiate.  Personally, I think the fresher the snow the better the radiation.

Regarding all the model talk and the snow maps.  I have to say that the majority of them kept showing me at very close to 5".  Only the Euro a few runs upped it to like 7", but even it brought it back down before it started yesterday.  So my opinion is that for here they did quite well and were fairly consistent.

[CarlislePaWx]

20 minutes ago, canderson said:

Had a three-day total of 11.5". Year now up to 40.6". 

Truly amazing I'm above climo with the pattern. 

I'm a bit bummed PHL only got 1" - my nephew's fiance has never seen snow before and they're in town Tuesday through Thursday and hoped she could play in some in a park somewhere. I thiiiiink they're headed to Connecticut on Thursday though so she's see all the snow she can handle up there - holy crap they got hammered overnight. 

Check your math.  I think your total should be 41.6.  We're still less than 0.5" apart on the season.  Very consistent.

[canderson]

1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Check your math.  I think your total should be 41.6.  We're still less than 0.5" apart on the season.  Very consistent.

D'oh you are correct! 41.6" for the year.

I hate math hence why I am a journalist/do PR work.

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

My final was 4.9" with 0.53" of liquid producing an SLR of just a hair under 10:1 (9.2:1).  3-day storm total was 11.7" (3.8 + 3.0 + 4.9).  Last night I incorrectly said it was 11.5".

Very wintry look out there this morning.  Lots of trees still have snow stuck to them as the wind hasn't been strong enough to blow it all off.  Plus, temp isn't rising and has been stuck at 32 with the sun popping in and out.  Looking forward to tonight to see how well we can radiate.  Personally, I think the fresher the snow the better the radiation.

Regarding all the model talk and the snow maps.  I have to say that the majority of them kept showing me at very close to 5".  Only the Euro a few runs upped it to like 7", but even it brought it back down before it started yesterday.  So my opinion is that for here they did quite well and were fairly consistent.

Agreed.  Other than a couple off runs, I thought the same when I left on Thurs and checked in Friday.  i was pretty confident they were onto something decent.  Just like I dont really focus on MBY forecasting methods, I use them as a general tool...even the meso's.  Too many other factors/variables to really rely on a hi res snow map. 

The takeaway is that math/physics/fluid dynamics will never be able to replace the science of this sport IMO.  Thats the biggest draw to me.  Still always end up going on our best guess.  Ok, now i gotta get to work.  I have a sled fix to pay for.  Enjoy the snow everyone.

I'll be back looking at Friday to see if we can drum up one more before the cave starts calling.

[MAG5035]

A fresh 0.3" this morning from the fluffy snow showers that are around brings my season total to 50.9". I consider getting into the 45-50" range as an average winter at this location, so pretty much playing with house money at this point. @Cashtown_Coop came really close to cracking 50" for the season with yesterday so we might end up slugging it out for top seasonal snowfall in the subforum haha. 

[sauss06]

11 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Check your math.  I think your total should be 41.6.  We're still less than 0.5" apart on the season.  Very consistent.

i have 41.5" 

[CarlislePaWx]

6 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

i have 41.5" 

We're both in the "Over 40" club.  LOL

[Bubbler86]

41 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Im not sure how long you've been at this, but biases are most definitely not a fallacy. 

Euro holds troughs in the SW 

GFS warm thermal fields

Fv3 cold and snowy

NAM cold thermal fields, snowy and overamped.

CMC amped

ICON - lost

and these are just off the top of my head, i didnt look at the real list.  

 

I did not say biases were a fallacy I said some of the things bantered around here are thrown out to invalidate model runs that do not show snow in peoples back yards.  As a specific example, if anyone has verifable data suggesting that the NAM at 84 hours is signifigantly less accurate than then average of other models at 84 hours then I will change my tune on that but otherwise it is just excuse that propogated from when they extended the ETA/NAM out from 60 to 84 hours.  Actually if I rememeber correctly the 61-84 hour period was called the extended ETA and they meshed it into one product.  

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I did not say biases were a fallacy I said some of the things bantered around here are thrown out to invalidate model runs that do not show snow in peoples back yards.  As a specific example, if anyone has verifable data suggesting that the NAM at 84 hours is signifigantly less accurate than then average of other models at 84 hours then I will change my tune on that but otherwise it is just excuse that propogated from when they extended the ETA/NAM out from 60 to 84 hours.  Actually if I remmeber correctly the 61-84 hour period was called the extended ETA and they meshed it into one product.  

Can't agree more, but you posted know biases, so i thought that was your point.  NAM is and has been on of my fav models for a while now.  That's in part because i know it biases, but think it is a pretty good model and dont get the grief some give it.  I extrapolate @84 all the time.  By the same token, it can swing just like the others do. I/we've seen both.  I toss NOTHING inside of 72, but toss alot beyond 168.  This year proves that is the way to go.   

[djr5001]

38 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

i have 41.5" 

haha that is my current running total as well - here are my records based on morning reporting times so dates may be slightly off from how others record:

11/16 - 8.0", 1/13 - 2.2", 1/18 - 1.7", 1/20 - 3.8", 1/30 - 2.4", 2/2 - 1.0", 2/11 - 1.1", 2/12 - 4.4", 2/21 - 5.0", 3/1 - 4.1", 3/2 - 3.3", 3/4 - 4.5" = 41.5"

[Cashtown_Coop]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

A fresh 0.3" this morning from the fluffy snow showers that are around brings my season total to 50.9". I consider getting into the 45-50" range as an average winter at this location, so pretty much playing with house money at this point. @Cashtown_Coop came really close to cracking 50" for the season with yesterday so we might end up slugging it out for top seasonal snowfall in the subforum haha. 

You have the edge with your elevation.     I just want my fiddy.

[paweather]

Uneventful week coming up cold and dry. Let's hope next week turns into an active one. No breaks this time of year since are in March. :-) and I want to make it to 2000 posts before I hibernate. 

[daxx]

I'm not going to get into great detail with the LR but late week and weekend we could pad a little to our  snow totals.   It looks like we might see a few warm systems with rain as well in between now and mid month. Im thinking after 15th or so the  pattern might set up for something bigger!   Who knows we might usher in astronomical Spring with a snowstorm.  I'm sure Mag has a much better detailed look at the LR than myself.  

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, daxx said:

I'm not going to get into great detail with the LR but late week and weekend we could pad a little to our  snow totals.   It looks like we might see a few warm systems with rain as well in between now and mid month. Im thinking after 15th or so the  pattern might set up for something bigger!   Who knows we might usher in astronomical Spring with a snowstorm.  I'm sure Mag has a much better detailed look at the LR than myself.  

17" last year on 3/22/2018. Just saying. 

I'd be more than a little surprised if we're done yet. 

[daxx]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

17" last year on 3/22/2018. Just saying. 

I'd be more than a little surprised if we're done yet. 

Yes great event!

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Can't agree more, but you posted know biases, so i thought that was your point.  NAM is and has been on of my fav models for a while now.  That's in part because i know it biases, but think it is a pretty good model and dont get the grief some give it.  I extrapolate @84 all the time.  By the same token, it can swing just like the others do. I/we've seen both.  I toss NOTHING inside of 72, but toss alot beyond 168.  This year proves that is the way to go.   

Count me in as a NAM fan. One thing I've noticed over the years is it seems to sniff out southern storms coming north first. If other guidance is a whiff south but the NAM is consistently north, a lot of times it leads the way. Caveat: I am only speaking about true southern stream, "Miller A" storms. 

[pasnownut]

16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Count me in as a NAM fan. One thing I've noticed over the years is it seems to sniff out southern storms coming north first. If other guidance is a whiff south but the NAM is consistently north, a lot of times it leads the way. Caveat: I am only speaking about true southern stream, "Miller A" storms. 

But your point is well taken.  What you state can be stated for most models, because they all have their strengths and weaknesses.  That creates the problem for hobbyists, and even the big shots, as its just not a linear thing.  Some need reminded that while the best algorithms can help, it cannot replace the science.  Thats no dig whatsoever to those trying to better the forecasting models, but its just where we STILL are right now.  Take the LR challenges we've had this year for example.

Its the best data we can ingest, and then extrapolate every part of it to get your best guess.  Some guesses are just a little more educated than others.  

[pasnownut]

50 minutes ago, paweather said:

Uneventful week coming up cold and dry. Let's hope next week turns into an active one. No breaks this time of year since are in March. :-) and I want to make it to 2000 posts before I hibernate. 

dude, you better slam a redbull and start extrapolating everything you see............

303 posts in 2 weeks...get on it buddy.

[Bubbler86]

3 hours ago, pasnownut said:

dude, you better slam a redbull and start extrapolating everything you see............

303 posts in 2 weeks...get on it buddy.

I will extrapolate the 18Z Nam and say it looks a lot like the 12Z GFS for Friday.  The GFS has a 1-3" snow fall, with very light rates, over most of the LSV on Friday.  But it is during the daytime or at least some day running into the evening and there are mixing issues for some along with temps slightly above 32.  I think several people are looking for that amount to pad stats and hit marks for the season.  A very low confidence thing right now in my opinion.

 

@MAG5035, I do not keep records to the level that @Cashtown_Coop does but he and I have had mostly the same amounts in each event this year, sometimes one or the other is slightly more or less,  so you could have two people well south of you to fend off for the yearly totals. :-)

[pawatch]

Still 5-6 days out  but looks like the same pattern.

[Flatheadsickness]

Seeing this amped jet, late winter storm tracks and two sever weather outbreaks in two weeks  in late winter east of the Mississippi and north of Florida   makes me really wish I would have continued to talk about the subject of solar cycles the other day . With every passing storm this late winter I cant help but to be reminded of of late winter /spring 2011 solar activity spike. I believe from what I  have noted in the past we may have wrapped up cycle 24's minimum  and are now in or very close (a few weeks away) from cycle 25. We should know in a few weeks. I am not saying spring will be like 2011 but I believe it has the potential to look similar . If 2011 where to have a twin it would most likely be the springs of either 2022-2023( The  likely maximum peak) if the cycle has even changed. Hell maybe it already has and I'm just uninformed. I have a lot more to say about this and winter storms but I am out of time for today.  

[Flatheadsickness]

I did very well in all three storms but the last one was to wet for a dog and a camera. So I could not  really enjoy the way I would have liked to. Topped out yesterday unofficially around 6.2"

[paweather]

4 hours ago, pasnownut said:

dude, you better slam a redbull and start extrapolating everything you see............

303 posts in 2 weeks...get on it buddy.

haha! I am fine since I will be hibernating for the next 7 months. 

[Flatheadsickness]

Bty good job on the last storm fellows I was thinking rain gear until very early Sunday