Itstrainingtime Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 On 3/3/2019 at 4:55 PM, Blizzard of 93 said: Most winters over the decades are built on 3 to 6 or 4 to 8 inch events. We have been spoiled this decade with several large storms. Expand 100% fact. Said it many times but it's hard for the younger crowd to get it. As a kid, a 4-8" snowstorm was a HUGE deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 On 3/3/2019 at 4:54 PM, Itstrainingtime said: It really does...did you see Horst's tweet about being in the best forcing after 5pm? Expand On 3/3/2019 at 4:55 PM, Superstorm said: Yes, should be good times around here in a few hours. Expand Big question, though. Does that good forcing make it up here to Schuylkill County or does it stay down there in the southern tier counties? As you know, I'm a "go big or go home" kind of person when it comes to winter events, so if it's going to snow, especially in March, then I want to get my azz kicked with a good one, and not be "fringed". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 On 3/3/2019 at 4:56 PM, Itstrainingtime said: 100% fact. Said it many times but it's hard for the younger crowd to get it. As a kid, a 4-8" snowstorm was a HUGE deal. Grew up in NJ in the 80s. It was worse there. Very tough seeing almost ever storm flip to rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 On 3/3/2019 at 4:59 PM, Voyager said: Big question, though. Does that good forcing make it up here to Schuylkill County or does it stay down there in the southern tier counties? As you know, I'm a "go big or go home" kind of person when it comes to winter events, so if it's going to snow, especially in March, then I want to get my azz kicked with a good one, and not be "fringed". Expand I honestly don't know. Being north doesn't help. Being east does help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 On 3/3/2019 at 5:01 PM, Superstorm said: Grew up in NJ in the 80s. It was worse there. Very tough seeing almost ever storm flip to rain. . Expand Grew up right here in the 70s. Watched many storms smoke VA and the Carolinas while I watched cirrus streak by on the southern horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 On 3/3/2019 at 3:39 PM, bubbler86 said: @Itstrainingtime, do not look at Goofus. :-). It has caved to the NAM/RGEM/EURO and is now much more amped with a 998 off the VA Capes but just looking at radar it is rain for much of Lanco. The gist of the GFS run should be that the LSV is about the get walloped and most guidance suggests even the SE corner comes away golden. Goofus jackspots @Cashtown_Coop Expand I hacked into the model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 On 3/3/2019 at 4:56 PM, anotherman said: Absolutely correct. And a lot of people have no memory or weren't alive in the late 80s/early 90s when we couldn't buy a winter storm. Expand I remember how terrible those winters were in the late 80’s & early 90’s. Then the Blizzard of 93 hit, & then the winters of 94 & 96 were amazing, which started my love of the weather in my teen years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 On 3/3/2019 at 4:48 PM, MAG5035 said: Light snow has started here. Expand Mag what's your thoughts on ratio's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 First flakes 10 miles south of Selinsgrove Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 On 3/3/2019 at 4:56 PM, Itstrainingtime said: 100% fact. Said it many times but it's hard for the younger crowd to get it. As a kid, a 4-8" snowstorm was a HUGE deal. Expand I agree. Many storm were like this year, with 3-5 inches, followed by mixing, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 We have had moderate to occasionally heavy snow for about 30 min...34 degrees so mid day it is not going to lay on anything (Jaunary or March) except where there is already snow. We have had about 1/4" there. Not even accumulating on the back deck. Wasting snow. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I think CTP, especially the LSV, is in a great spot for this event. Temps in northwest PA are in the 20’s with dew points in the teens. Temps to our south east towards Philly & Baltimore are in the low 40’s. This contrast should provide a nice boundary for the storm to travel & put us on the winning side with the best precip & just cold enough temps for good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 On 3/3/2019 at 4:59 PM, Voyager said: Big question, though. Does that good forcing make it up here to Schuylkill County or does it stay down there in the southern tier counties? As you know, I'm a "go big or go home" kind of person when it comes to winter events, so if it's going to snow, especially in March, then I want to get my azz kicked with a good one, and not be "fringed". Expand I think most models get the coastal infused forcing up your way or REAL close as shown here on the 3K Nam. I think your NWS forecast of 4-8" sounds good based on this. I messed up your locale earlier this year but think I got it right this time. Basically due west of New York and slightly North East of Allentown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 On 3/3/2019 at 5:46 PM, bubbler86 said: We have had moderate to occasionally heavy snow for about 30 min...34 degrees so mid day it is not going to lay on anything (Jaunary or March) except where there is already snow. We have had about 1/4" there. Not even accumulating on the back deck. Wasting snow. LOL Expand My fear from this morn. Wasted qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 On 3/3/2019 at 5:52 PM, Cashtown_Coop said: My fear from this morn. Wasted qpf. Expand In my opinion it is built into the snow maps I have seen as we get 1-2" an hour rates from 6PM-10PM where we get our warning level accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 On 3/3/2019 at 4:56 PM, Itstrainingtime said: 100% fact. Said it many times but it's hard for the younger crowd to get it. As a kid, a 4-8" snowstorm was a HUGE deal. Expand True story! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 On 3/3/2019 at 5:54 PM, bubbler86 said: In my opinion it is built into the snow maps I have seen as we get 1-2" an hour rates from 6PM-10PM where we get our warning level accums. Expand Good deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 On 3/3/2019 at 5:55 PM, sauss06 said: True story! Expand Yep, I shuttled between N Va and PA most of my child hood I remember hearing 2-4" and thinking we were in for a block buster. I had commented earlier this year how we seem to get less of those now and this winter went ahead and filled up with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 On 3/3/2019 at 4:55 PM, Blizzard of 93 said: Most winters over the decades are built on 3 to 6 or 4 to 8 inch events. We have been spoiled this decade with several large storms. Expand I think the question a lot of folks have is whether we have entered a new normal with snow in these areas, or if it's more of a short-term decadal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Starting to pick up here in southern York County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 On 3/3/2019 at 5:52 PM, bubbler86 said: I think most models get the coastal infused forcing up your way or REAL close as shown here on the 3K Nam. I think your NWS forecast of 4-8" sounds good based on this. I messed up your locale earlier this year but think I got it right this time. Basically due west of New York and slightly North East of Allentown. Expand Cool. If we're going to have snow, then I want to see good rates. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 The 12z Euro is locked in ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 On 3/3/2019 at 6:10 PM, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z Euro is locked in !Looking good!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 On 3/3/2019 at 6:10 PM, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z Euro is locked in ! Expand Thanks, goes into that same circular look that is what want to see when a coastal is pumping mositure back over us. That 10 is right over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 On 3/3/2019 at 6:11 PM, Superstorm said: Looking good!! . Expand That’s the best I’ve seen my way in awhile for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Tornado Watches in the SE. All really good Miller A storms have this component though I pray no one actually sees anything on the ground. Whether this is a pure Miller A or not is yet another discussion but I think it probably would fall into that catagory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just got to Lancaster and looks to be light snow just starting here. All snow. 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Snow finally starting here. It's just funny watching it snow while all the previous snow is melting away at the same time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Light - very light - snow in Harrisburg. Will be several hours until it starts sticking but snow is better than no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 @Itstrainingtime, I looked at the GFS as to why it was showing rain in much of Lanco during the height of the storm and it appears it brings the 850MB (and probably 800 though I cannot see that on Pivotal) line right up and into SE PA where as the NAM, for example, keeps it south of you The HRRR does the same thing in mixing you a bit as it intrudes into SE PA. Right now the line is well south of you in the southern DelMarVa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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