Blizzard of 93 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 This storm looks to be adding some serious juice from the gulf ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: I think the R/S line does get near or over you but isn't that the place to be? If you want to see the action of a ground war you have to be at the front line. LOL. @pasnownut might have to finish the end of his ride home on his snowmobile. Understood completely. I just don't want 3 hours of white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, AllWeather said: This little bit of overrunning is going to help us stay cool thanks to less insolation/more wet-bulbing. Despite starting a bit milder than guidance, it may all even out in the wash as the main batch moves in. HRRR looks like it's catching up to this idea. Giddy up. Thanks Matt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 This little bit of overrunning is going to help us stay cool thanks to less insolation/more wet-bulbing. Despite starting a bit milder than guidance, it may all even out in the wash as the main batch moves in. HRRR looks like it's catching up to this idea. Giddy up.Notice a few flakes flying around.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 A little sun shining in Palmyra just saying hi to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 26 minutes ago, Ruin said: it would be nice if we got some classic wrap around to tho I dont think we will get much of a negative tilt. Was just looking at the HRRR destruction of Lancaster county (eventually flips it to slop at the end of 6-8") and noticed this panel does show a little wrap around FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Rgem does start most of the LSV out as rain for a brief time but then transitions to curb stomping the SE Corner. Posting these panels because I do not feel we have had a chance to see this type of look often this year so good to see it on multiple panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I put up a post first thing this morning pertaining to my thoughts on the LSV with maybe being a bit warm to start off. I’m not particularly worried. Even if there are issues on the get go, things should quickly turn to all snow and once we get past 3-4pm any surfaces benefitting from the March solar radiation will “cave” when the steadier stuff arrives. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: I put up a post first thing this morning pertaining to my thoughts on the LSV with maybe being a bit warm to start off. I’m not particularly worried. Even if there are issues on the get go, things should quickly turn to all snow and once we get past 3-4pm any surfaces benefitting from the March solar radiation will “cave” when the steadier stuff arrives. I'm in agreement. If it's 33/34 and puking snow at sunset, you can forget about what the temp is. It'll accumulate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 It's gonna be hard for this to accumulate until the sun goes down or if we get fast rates. Everything is in heavy melt mode right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, TheDreamTraveler said: It's gonna be hard for this to accumulate until the sun goes down or if we get fast rates. Everything is in heavy melt mode right now. Really the banding and heavy stuff does not get started until 6 or 7PM anyways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 @Itstrainingtime, do not look at Goofus. :-). It has caved to the NAM/RGEM/EURO and is now much more amped with a 998 off the VA Capes but just looking at radar it is rain for much of Lanco. The gist of the GFS run should be that the LSV is about the get walloped and most guidance suggests even the SE corner comes away golden. Goofus jackspots @Cashtown_Coop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 The GFS looks fine for the LSV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The GFS looks fine for the LSV That map is flawed from the GFS radar returns...basically no snow in Lanco. But we all know it is probably wrong anyway with the no snow and Herpy says "May I have this dance" to the LSV. Great 12Z trends today for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Moisture source is extensive gulf and Atlantic. If we had a block it would be massive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 Well for what's it worth (probably not much) but I've had off and on flurries for the past 45 minutes. I'm also at 38.8 which I'm not pleased with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Moisture source is extensive gulf and Atlantic. If we had a block it would be massive. Blocking would have made this a HECS.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Blocking would have made this a HECS. . Yep but I’ll take it. Flurries have commenced. Sun said hello and left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Anyone watch the weather channel anymore? I watched it for 10 mins and was done. When I was a kid I had it on 24-7 during winter lol. I couldn’t last 10 mins in this day and age. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Anyone watch the weather channel anymore? I watched it for 10 mins and was done. When I was a kid I had it on 24-7 during winter lol. I couldn’t last 10 mins in this day and age. Unwatchable.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 19 minutes ago, paweather said: Moisture source is extensive gulf and Atlantic. If we had a block it would be massive. Even if this wave stood on its own, it would have had way more potential. The fast flow would have prevented HECS labels, but all these little pieces of energy had to fight with each other in the last few days. The coastal helped robbed this main storm of some energy and pushed it south. We were looking at a 12" event a couple days ago, now we're down to 2-4" if we're lucky. In March, that just doesn't cut it. Hopefully coastal enhancement means it overperforms for you folks, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 hour ago, bubbler86 said: I think the R/S line does get near or over you but isn't that the place to be? If you want to see the action of a ground war you have to be at the front line. LOL. @pasnownut might have to finish the end of his ride home on his snowmobile. Thanks bud. Snowmobile leaking antifreeze. Going to backup kid sled. Lol. Thanks for keeping me in the loop. Headed home now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, paweather said: Anyone watch the weather channel anymore? I watched it for 10 mins and was done. When I was a kid I had it on 24-7 during winter lol. I couldn’t last 10 mins in this day and age. Everything is so dramatic and the on-screen "Mets" appear like idiots not knowing what they're talking about..... while trying to be all edgey and fidgeting with their tech devices. Insufferable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Light snow has started here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Radar looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 It really does...did you see Horst's tweet about being in the best forcing after 5pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 40 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Blocking would have made this a HECS. . Most winters over the decades are built on 3 to 6 or 4 to 8 inch events. We have been spoiled this decade with several large storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 It really does...did you see Horst's tweet about being in the best forcing after 5pm? Yes, should be good times around here in a few hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 At Martin's right now. This is the scene. In case someone has never seen this funny video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Most winters over the decades are built on 3 to 6 or 4 to 8 inch events. We have been spoiled this decade with several large storms. Absolutely correct. And a lot of people have no memory or weren't alive in the late 80s/early 90s when we couldn't buy a winter storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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